Inside Politics SOS
It's a Saturday and I'm in the office. But before there's a collective outpouring of sympathy, the real plaudits should go to Martina Purdy, political correspondent and occasional blog sitter, who stayed up until two o'clock in the morning standing outside the Martyrs' Memorial Church on the Ravenhill Road in Belfast waiting for the outcome of a meeting of Free Presbyterian Church elders. When the Free Ps left they told her that Ian Paisley would step down as moderator in January. It looks like a compromise move to avoid a split in the church over the Stormont power sharing deal. So who will succeed the Big Man? His son, Ian Kyle? Or the Reverend David McIlveen?
Does the church move have any wider political significance? The Secretary of State (or SOS for short) Shaun Woodward is my guest for Inside Politics which is broadcast at 12.45 on Radio Ulster. He has just told me that he's not concerned the Free Ps' decision will impact on the stability of the Stormont deal. He also says that an early election is "highly improbable" and links the willingness of local politicians to agree the transfer of policing and justice powers to their ability to attract economic investment.
I also ask him about Margaret Ritchie's October 9th deadline to the UDA. He appears to back her, but adds the caveal that "deadlines are a tool not an end in themselves."
I'm 
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What does "deadlines are a tool not an end in themselves" mean? Does it mean that Margaret Ritchie has a license to bottle it? Although Margaret Ritchie's department is funding this she needs to look at her own department urgently. Job cuts, low pay, staff morale at an all time low and what does Miss Ritchie do? Nothing
Mark
ANNO DOMINI & LATE NIGHTS NOT GOOD FOR OCTOGENARIANS
Dr Paisley should take note of the Enoch Powell maxim: "All political careers, unless they are cut off at some happy juncture, end in failure". Paisley鈥檚 religious fundamentalism has been the foundation of his success as a politican. Ergo, the Free P. Elders, while allowing him to remain for a few more months so as not to inflict public humiliation, have delivered a real blow to his political standing. So Paisley is faced with a number of dilemmas:
1 Paisley鈥檚 Successor as Moderator?: For a number of reasons, Junior is unlikely to become Moderator. He does not exude the religious fervour and gravitas that are part and parcel of his Father鈥檚 demeanour. 鈥淔or God and Ulster鈥 was more than just a slogan for many grassroot supporters and they do feel betrayed by Paisley鈥檚 political embrace of McGuinness. This sense of betrayal runs so deep that Junior鈥檚 strong loyalty to his Father is of itself a form of self-exclusion for the post. EDIT Ivan Foster has most of the credentials but can be excluded on age grounds (have I transgressed Section 73 by saying that?). The Presbytery will now wish to retreat to its fundamentalist roots. In this respect the Rev McIlveen seems to hit all the right buttons. Though loyal to Paisley, he has cleverly remained detached from the DUP and adhered to the evangelical principles that have been the hallmark of the Church. Strangely, a high profile role for Rev McIlveen will help to relieve pressure on our hard-pressed health services; his monotone recitation of Biblical events will significantly reduce the number of cases of insomnia because this man could bore for Britain.
2 Paisley鈥檚 Position as DUP Leader/FM?: Paisley鈥檚 most important strength over long years has been the unswerving support of his entire party and his Church. That support was never more evident than in the wilderness years of NEVER! NEVER! NEVER! The unifying influence was fear of violent republicanism and Paisley was the bulwark keeping Ulster safe. By contrast, power sharing is simply not on for a significant number of former Paisleyites and hence the growing numbers distancing themselves from him. My view is that Paisley鈥檚 current difficulties will lead the Free Presbyterians to split from the DUP which is destined to become much more secular than hitherto; and that scenario takes us inexorably to 鈥︹︹︹︹︹︹︹︹︹︹
3 Dr Paisley鈥檚 Successor? The aforementioned may now nudge Paisley to accept that his political time will be up shortly. If he heeds Enoch Powell鈥檚 maxim, Paisley will be looking hard to 鈥渃ut off at some happy juncture鈥. The current Assembly charade is secure in the short-term so he should 鈥榙o a Blair鈥 and announce his date of departure to spend more time with his family (鈥渉appy juncture鈥). He will try to ensure that he chooses his successor, perhaps someone who can halt the Party鈥檚 secularisation. There are no obvious non-secular candidates. At this stage Peter Robinson seems to be the only plausible candidate. Generally very surefooted, though he displayed a degree of insensitivity to the environmental lobby and a trace of greed recently when he gained financially from the 鈥楪rab a Garden鈥 phenomenon. The remainder of Paisley鈥檚 acolytes are a motley lot. Junior simply doesn鈥檛 have the intellectual acuity, the political nous or the magnetism to lead a Party that is mutating into a very different political animal. Nigel Dodds has most of the necessary qualities save that he is a charisma-free zone. While Jeffrey Donaldson has performed consistently to a high level he is nevertheless regarded as a blow-in by large sections of the Party so his time is not yet.
4 Anno Domini?: Age withers us all so it鈥檚 hard to see how this octogenarian can keep up the pace, particularly when he stays out to all hours of the morning.
In summary, of all the above, Paisley cannot influence Anno Domini so he should not overplay his hand by staying on too long. He is on top now but he certainly doesn鈥檛 want to be there when the Assembly honeymoon is over. To preserve his legacy as the Colossus of the NI political stage why not go soon before he reinforces Enoch Powell maxim that 鈥渁ll political careers end in failure鈥. Moreover, at his age, Paisley must also consider the possibility of a visit from The Grim Reaper.
I always like to finish on a cheery note.
Susie
Carryduff
The report in today's Newsletter is thhe most accurate one about the Presbytery meeting - the 大象传媒 have been completely wide of the mark in analysing the FPC till now and this piece is another one of shoddy journalism.
There is no chance in a million years that Kyle Paisley would be the next Moderator. David McIlveen is tainted by his refusal to take a consistent stand on this issue.
The next Moderator in the FPC will most likely be the minister in Ballymena - see if the 大象传媒 could work that out!