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A Danish domino?

• Mark Mardell
• 3 Sep 07, 12:17 PM

The prime minister is thinking about calling an early election in the autumn. But he has got one serious worry: that his opponents will wreck his plans by making hay backing a popular call for a referendum on the EU Reform Treaty.

No, not Gordon Brown. Or perhaps I mean, not just Gordon Brown.

Denmark's conservative leader, , has promised Angela Merkel that he will do his very best to avoid a referendum. They are both painfully aware that it could trigger a domino effect that might knock over Mr Brown by heating up the already pretty hot demands for such a vote in the UK.

After all, look at the impact the Danish No-vote on the Maastricht Treaty had on British domestic politics. It emboldened Conservative Eurosceptics and meant the treaty had a gruesome passage through Parliament that fatally undermined John Major's authority. So how difficult is it for the government in Denmark now?

The main opposition party, led by Neil Kinnock's daughter-in-law , is not calling for a referendum - not yet anyway. While she is opposed, others in her Social Democratic party argue it is too good an opportunity to miss. But the nationalist Danish People's Party, which votes with the government coalition, does want a referendum, and so do the socialists.

But the really critical point is the call for a referendum by , a charismatic and very popular politician who has just formed his own new centre party, New Alliance. This Muslim politician became hugely popular during the by calling on fellow members of the faith to support Danish democracy.

I am told the Danish prime minister wants to help Gordon Brown, but he wants to remain prime minister even more. He would also like to win an election, then hold a referendum on getting rid of the Danish Maastricht opt-outs, so they could join the euro. And we all know you can have too much of a good thing.

Thanks very much to my colleague Thomas Lauritzen from the Danish newspaper for advice on this piece.

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