East or West which is best?
from Serbia, the villagers get poorer, the roads worse.
The road signs start being odd, with sign-posted but not
Then they stop altogether. As we pull over to stretch our legs before crossing the border, an old man offers us a coffee. 鈥淚ts very quiet here,鈥 he tells us.
So it is at the border too. We are the only ones crossing. As we wait for the Serbian police to examine our passports, an oil tanker pulls up, travelling the other way.
鈥淲here鈥檚 it from originally?鈥 I ask. 鈥淟ook at the plates: KS, Kosovo,鈥 replies my companion.
Just as he鈥檚 speaking the driver calmly removes the plates in full sight of the police and appears with a new set in his hands.
We get our passports back and are waved on to the United Nations checkpoint before I see for sure what he is up to. But I presume he is putting Serbian number plates on. 
New tricks
The driver of the oil tanker is prudently sensitive but will he have to learn new tricks?
A lot hangs on , with the favoured date at the moment sometime during the second week of February.
That鈥檚 when America would like it to happen. won鈥檛 speak with one voice but may agree a statement recognising the situation has changed and then leaving it up to individual countries to decide what to do.
The Spanish want to delay that until
Whenever it happens, the Serbian Government has just approved setting out possible ways it could react. It鈥檚 secret but the elements are known.
They might break off diplomatic relations with countries which recognise Kosovo.
Many Western diplomats regard that as rather laughable, Serbia hitting itself on the nose to spite its face.
Cutting electricity supplies or closing the border wouldn鈥檛 be a laughing matter.
Anything aimed at destabilising Kosovo would be regarded as a grave provocation, threatening Serbia鈥檚 future along a road to Europe.
Indeed one of the main questions of the Serbian election is whether the country will continue down its painfully slow path towards membership of the European Union, or reject that, turn its back on Europe and face towards Russia.
Stability pact
The Prime Minister has warned if the EU recognises an independent Kosovo, , generally seen as a very first tentative step towards membership.
Although the current president Boris Tadic has dismissed this threat, we are in the middle of elections for this very job. So it鈥檚 by no means certain he鈥檒l be the one making the decision.
It鈥檚 easy to mock this threat: Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown are not going to be sent into fearful hysterics by the thought of Serbians throwing down their pens and refusing to put their names to a document which is of more meaning and benefit to them than anyone else.
But it would be an important moment. From a British viewpoint, where the European Union is often derided as irrelevant or worse, it is easy for people to miss the fact that for many in Eastern Europe, membership is seen as a badge of modernity, a guarantor of democracy and the rule of law, and a path to prosperity.
It may be a long time before Albania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine join, but the elite at least want in, and see their future with Europe rather than Russia.
If Serbia became the first nation to turn its back on the European Union, it would be a spoke in the wheel of the EU鈥檚 soft power, its intention to spread its values simply by attraction.
It would be particularly important because this would not be a simple rejection of an organisation, just another Norway, Iceland or Switzerland deciding that the EU was not for them. It would be high stakes geopolitics, Serbia turning away from the West to face East.
Of course , and has long been an ally of Serbia.
Its decision to come to Serbia鈥檚 aid against Austro Hungarian aggression was one of the triggers of World War I.
Trivial and profound
There are many concoctions from the trivial: the fashions in the streets and the blast of uncontrollable heat on entering a hotel room, to the profound: a shared Cyrillic script, similarities of language, religion and heritage. 鈥淲e are the same people,鈥 as one Serb I spoke to put it.
But this is not just history and culture. It is to do with Russia鈥檚 new found confidence and assertiveness under Putin. There is no doubt that many Serbs see Russia as more than just a true friend, a friend that understands.
They see Russia as willing, even eager to stand up to a sanctimonious, yet bullying West.
Then again, when I talk to Serbs about facing east or west they nearly all mention.
Their message is that Serbia need not choose, and like Yugoslavia before it could steer a third, unaligned course.
Serbia certainly sits close to two of the important fault lines that define our history: that between Russia and Europe and between the old Ottoman Empire and Europe.
East or West, which for Serbia is best ?
I鈥檓 Mark Mardell, the 大象传媒's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
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A country like Serbia lacks the clout needed for a "third way", either in terms of population size, territory, weapons and wealth. The very fact that the mention of a "third way" or "non-alignment" is still coming into play, long after countries like India have abandoned it, is a sign of confusion and a lack of real national direction. We are looking at a lost people who are coming out of feudalism and Communism and not understanding just where and how they fit into a global capitalist economy. Politics and sentimentality have ruled for too long here at the expense of pragmatism.
A country like Serbia lacks the clout needed for a "third way", either in terms of population size, territory, weapons and wealth. The very fact that the mention of a "third way" or "non-alignment" is still coming into play, long after countries like India have abandoned it, is a sign of confusion and a lack of real national direction. We are looking at a lost people who are coming out of feudalism and Communism and not understanding just where and how they fit into a global capitalist economy. Politics and sentimentality have ruled for too long here at the expense of pragmatism.
As far as I remember no nation trying to join EU had to loose 15% of its territory as requirement to join.Why should Serbia !The so called negotiations were a joke ,either Albanian demands are met 100% or West will give Albanians 100% of what they want ,you choose.Serbia is a european country and there should bee no need to choose between EU and Russia as these are partners.By the way ,there is nothing that kosovo Albanians have compromised on ,they have not shown any good faith or willingness to find solutions.After getting their independence they will make life so miserable for Serbs that there will be hardly any left.After all they already managed to kill and expell so many .My proposition to the Serbs :partition !!!unilaterally declare ecntire northern Kosovo part of Serbia ,consolidate all Kosovo Serbs there ,pay special incentives to Serb refugees in Serbia proper to move back there .Learn from Israel ,build settlements ,increase Serbian population there ,remove all removable national treasures from Albanian territories as these would be surely destroyed,get Russian help egg USA helping Israel ,find sympathetic EU(there is more than you think) nations and increase bilateral relations with them.Serbia needs more allies.No cutting off diplomatic relations with anybody,isolation for Serbia is exactly what Albanians want .Isolate the Albanians.
You feel like singing and rhyming? You are such a poor soul, the arrogance pours from your ears. NO to EU - YES to Russia! We will build nuclear arsenal with Russian help and aim the rockets at London and other British cities and then you will sing and dance, (edited)
this picture is from my town kragujevac hehe .I was for the west during 90's very hard,hated milosevic ,going to every protest,we weaved western flags ,i was at 5.10.2000 ,16 hours on the street member of "otpor" ...,but now i am not ,i am so disapointed with lies of west media that i can't even read it any more because i up set 2 much.My parents lived in pristina till 99 and like other 40 000 serbs in pristina they are expeld from their homes and many were killed or missing,i guess NATO action was to stop "violence" and not to tak 15% of terotiry.This what west is doing now it's totaly wrong,many my friend are also disapointed ,you must now that with kosovo want get that easy ,it's a red line for all people here ,if we lost kosovo we are no longer country and we lost friends in west forever
As most of Serbia is Orthodox I believe it does not really have a future in the post soviet EU-era.
Had it been twenty years ago then the EU would have courted had the ~Soviet union agreed, but just like Bulgaria and Romania, Serbias fate inthe EU would be a third tier languisher. The EU is not an equal club, and democracy is a by product of the values of economical and political integration with social integration derived via the former and military integration a joke to appease and generate consensus in bad times. ~Tito as mentioned is nostalgia, a product of the west, utilising and manipulating to weaken all opposition with the support of the west.
Serbias fate will be decided by its population and not by Anglosaxons. Has history been forgotten. Have a good day Europe.
The Serbs are patriotic - some may say vainglorious - and as we have seen so often this most destructive of human emotions colours their external politics and determines its motif. Everyone is 'nice people' when you meet them at home but it's what happens elsewhere that counts. The Serbs have done badly on this score. The EU, the empire you have to struggle to join, removes all these historical fault-lines at a stroke. I pray that Serbia may come on board and make the crew complete. I have a small vested interest as I live in near-by Slovenia, a poster-child paradise for what Serbia and Kosovo could so easily become. Just the stroke of a pen.
What a typical British assessment. Britain, Europe, Ottoman Empire and Russia. Wake up and smell the instant coffee, Disraeli is long gone!
There is no East and West that Serbia will choose from. There is only right and wrong. And if the EU will, disregarding the UN Security Council, intervene in the internal affairs of Serbia, then it becomes obvious where Serbia will not look for friendship.
The EU must under no circumstances do such a thing. Otherwise the consequences of the illegal action that where initiated with the unilateral intervention of the USA into Serbia, will be transferred to the EU.
And this outright collaboration to an illegal act, and not the fact that Serbia will turn its face to Russia, will put a serious damper in the 'soft power' of the EU. The EU will lose its image as an upholder of the rule of law.
Kosovo is a great country. Life in it is the most sublime example of the Balkan: the chaos borne by the clash of two different social worldviews - the rule-based Western one and the tradition- and personal connections-based Oriental - during the transition time between two other social worldviews - the ordered socialist and the freewild capitalist.
This is the life in all Balkan countries since 1989, however in each country it reaches a different degree of wildness. UNMIC Kosovo from my experience is the most extreme.
An independent and now formally Albanian Kosovo will become even more interesting country!
I am only worried what will happen with the Serbs still remaining there? What will happen with the historical heritage, which is all Serbian?
The one certain answer is: total marginalisation. That's the best option Serbs can hope for (in fact, they already live like that). But events might take a turn far worse than that.
Western diplomats and medias never ever touch this point - a change of the Kosovo status is most important as an issue for the Kosovo Serbs. Not the Albanians - they already have an independent life in practice, not the Serbs in Beograd - for them Kosovo is a theoretical issue.
Anybody asked the Kosovo Serbs for their fears? No, it is inconvenient for the plans of the Western 'do-gooders' and 'democrats'. Personal loss and suffering of new thousands of people might be looming - it is better to alienate in advance the public from them.
"East is East, and West is West"
And Serbia, just as Russia, cannot decide which of those to clearly incompatible parts it belongs to.
"East is East, and West is West"
And Serbia, just as Russia, cannot decide which of those to clearly incompatible parts it belongs to.
As an old Russian ballad asks:
"Eh, Anastasia, Anastasia,
Are you Europe or Asia?"
Does anyone here know anything about zebras? [#3]
Don't know much 'bout them zebras, but I do know enough about Siberian tigers to be reasonably certain that they'll never change their spots.
An old Russian ballad asked:
"Eh, Anastasia, Anastasia
Are you Europe or Asia?"
I know that its author meant it as a rethorical question.
So, it seems that western countries already decided to fully back the independence of Kosovo. I'm pretty sure that from their point of view that is the right move (regarding Serbia's behavior in the last decade of the 20th century). But, on the other hand, Serbia have changed a lot after Milosevic era, and I may say, it did it by it self (people fought for their freedom). What's happening now is that newly formed democratic society in Serbia is trying to protect it sovereignty over territory of Kosovo. My question right now is:
"Why was Kosovo not given it's independence back in the nineties?"
If you have won the war, then finish the job. That was a big NATO's mistake people of Serbia (including Kosovo) are now paying for.
Regarding the question "East or West, which for Serbia is best?", my answer is WEST of course.
Regards from Serbia,
VB
Very interesting story, I always read the Mardell blog, but I do need to point out that it is at least insencitive to use expressions like "Russia is not a johnny-come-lately," because non English native speakers, have absolutely no idea what it means.
Of course this includes me as well...
" * 4.
* At 10:51 PM on 17 Jan 2008,
* Zoran Popovic wrote:
You feel like singing and rhyming? You are such a poor soul, the arrogance pours from your ears. NO to EU - YES to Russia! We will build nuclear arsenal with Russian help and aim the rockets at London and other British cities and then you will sing and dance, (edited)"
Are you a Bond baddy? I especially like the "and then you will sing and dance" bit, nice touch. Do you realise that the UK has nuclear weapons? In the extremely unlikely event of Serbia getting nukes, the best it could hope for if it chooses to go this route is a nuclear stand-off (Mutually assured destruction).
To comment on the actual article though, I can understand why Serbs don't want to give up Kosovo. How would we feel if a certain ethnic group (doesn't matter who) congregated in a region of the UK, then encouraged and bullied the local population to leave and finally demand independence from the UK? Then think how we would feel if most of the world backed this move for independence and told us there's nothing we should do about it. I'd say we'd feel pretty sore about it to say the least. OK, the Serbs have hardly been angels as far as recent history is concerned, but I can understand their feelings in this instance.
I do need to point out that it is at least insencitive to use expressions like "Russia is not a johnny-come-lately," because non English native speakers, have absolutely no idea what it means.
Of course this includes me as well.[#15]
Cheer up! Help is near!
British Council English teachers in Russia are busy packing as we speak and some may soon relocate to your neighbourhood.
Mark,
There is one very disturbing thing in your today's text: From your analysis of the Serbian-Russian relationship, it looks like the Russian intervention against the Austro-Hungarian empire was unjustified?!
I have to say, as a foreigner living in Novi Sad (Serbia), the thing I am most struck by is how most Serbs really aren't interested in Kosovo. They've been hearing their politicans rant and rave about it for more than 20 years, but (as Mr. Mardell pointed out) few of them have ever even been there. Serbs care way more about their economic prospects, no matter which foreign partnerships they come from, and their politicians are doing them a huge disservice by keeping the focus on an already lost cause.
To the Serbs who still demand that Kosovo be returned to Serbia, I think a math lesson is in order: according to the last census, there are about 7.5 million people in Serbia proper and an estimate of about 1.5 million people in Kosovo (more than 90% Albanian at this point). If Kosovo were completely reintegrated, that would make 1/6th of the population Albanians, and ask yourself how many Serbs would be thrilled at the idea of 42 (out of 250) seats in the national parliament going to Albanians. Given the fractured state of Serbian politics, numbers like that would make the Albanians kingmakers for any Serbian government.
"East or West": Mark, your view is simplistic. Why do they need to choose at all? A country can not move whatever their citizens think. And yes, I feel there is something true saying that the West has been bullying Serbia for years. Serb paramilitars comited atrocities but so did some Albanian extremists, a point that is often carefully overlooked. By the way, I lived in Belfast for years. How would YOU feel if NI joined the Irish Republic? Ah, of course "that is not the same situation".
Had Europe dealt with Milosevic and the Yugoslavia that was falling apart in 1990 we would be looking at a very different situation today. Serbia would have been a normal European state and Kosovo, as a part of it would have been much better off than it is today.
Starting three wars, losing them and getting ostracized by the world has put Serbia in a very abnormal mode. It made it curl up into a heavy nationalist "us against the world" sentiment. It is today a nation with a serious collective emotional and psychological trauma. Just take a look at their parliament - where the neanderthal ultra-nationalists are the largest party. Frankly, it is a miracle that it hasn't collapsed under its own weight.
Is Serbia European? Of course it is. Take a look at Belgrade - it's a perfectly normal European city. And the society in general is organized around the same priorities as anywhere else in Europe. The current ultra-nationalist mode is an abnormal one, not commonly found in Europe today. But it is hardly the first one in the history of Europe. And before you condemn the people for not knowing better, consider this: When the Iraq invasion was started the British popular support for the war spiked from the low thirties to nearly sixty percent. In America after 9/11, the support for Bush was well over 90%. In times of crisis people rally on a national basis. And currently the Serbs feel like they are sitting in a bunker with the barbarians at the gates. Apart from the Russians they have no friends in the world.
How do you think the British would react if the EU and US together demanded and pushed for an independent Wales? I'm guessing that it wouldn't go down very well with the average English person and that the nationalists would grow very strong. I'm also guessing the people would rally around irrelevant historical symbols. In short, exactly the same thing that is happening in Serbia.
As for Kosovo as an independent nation, well, that's not a brilliantly thought out plan, now is it? While I'm all for the self-determination of people one has to be a bit practical as well. Kosovo is really poor - in fact so poor that it makes Albania look like Luxembourg. They have no industry and essentially no other income. The little infrastructure they have left after NATO and Serbian destruction depends completely on the good will of Belgrade. They have no real economy but just an enormous black market. The UN mission there has so far been an abysmal failure - tons of money has just disappeared without any benefits to the economy, the infrastructure and the political system.
If it declares independence Serbia's natural move will be to cut off gas, water and electricity to Kosovo. And it is sort of difficult to expect them to do anything different. They can't both become an independent nation against he will of their current government and have right to subsidies from that same government, right? Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.
So what are the options? Joining Albania? It's not exactly like the Albanian economy, which is in shambles as it is would benefit from it. And neither would the Kosovo Albanians in the long run.
The best option, although not exactly fair to the Kosovo Albanians in the short run, would be to oppose their declaration of independence and try to convince them that it would be a bad move. Be nice to Serbia for a while and leave it alone so that its economy can recover and its political system to normalize. In a decade or so it will be no different from any other well adapted member of the European community.
Would Britain give up Kent for a possibility of economic prosperity? Methinks - NOT!
I'm against Kosovo independence. Not because of the people who live their but because Kosovo will be a dead state. They will not be able to survive without help from the EU and USA. I would prefer a Confederation of Serbia and Kosovo (like Serbia and Montenegro). In theory Kosovo, will stay a part of Serbia but in practice they will be independant. Serbia stays responsible for foreign policy and the defence of Kosovo.
Vlada (#14). You may feel that Serbia is a 'newly formed democratic society', unfortunately, from the outside it doesn't look like that. To me, it looks like a society that supported nationalist wars and atrocities while you were winning, then got bored when you started losing. Now, of course, the largest party in your parliament is the same as that of your war criminal leaders and former leader and your Presidential vote is likely to go the same way.
To be very clear about this, if the Serbian authorities had not committed atrocities and ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, prompting Nato to act in defence of the civilian population (in the way they failed to do in Bosnia, to their eternal shame & dis-credit) this subject would never have come about. Do you think that Nato & the EU have nothing better to do than police the Balkans, with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding western Europe? Please remember who is responsible for this unhappy situation.
I think this particular topic on your blog is written rather poorly. Usually you tend to make it more personal, presenting people's stories. Seeing that Kosovo's inevitable declaration of independence will affect people's lives greatly, why have you not tried to get more personal insight? Is it because you direct this blog to a mainly British audience? Or is it because this should be a pro-EU blog, no matter what? As you can see there's plenty non-Serbians that find this situation cruel and unfair.
Good luck with your future entries...
I鈥檓 afraid the choice is not all that black鈥檔鈥檞hite. At least not from a Serbian stand point.
On one side you have the fact of being virtually surrounded by EU. Kind of donate shaped neighbor with Serbia in the middle with all the commercial, trade, economic, security and other implications of such layout. The choice appears as a no brainier.
On the other hand, the main power houses in that very same EU are willing to put aside their own founding principles for the sake of shrinking the territory Serbs can call home. The rational for recognizing Croatia in its current borders was that borders can NOT change. The same does not , all suddenly, apply in case of Kosovo. The rational for supporting Kosovo drive for secession is the right of ethnical groups not to live within state they do not see as their yet in case of Republic of Serbska the same principle is considered a taboo and even mentioning it an unspeakable heresy.
So, even if the choice is EU 鈥 they question is does EU wants Serbia at all. From its current actions it appears EU can tolerate Serbia ONLY if all its territory is given to its neighbors. If that is the case 鈥 the choice is less about badge of wealth , prosperity and future but more about physical survival. Again, the sentiment so frequently repeated to Serbia ,that in EU borders really don鈥檛 matter all that much , is in contradiction with almost hysterical efforts to border Kosovo off (from Serbia).
As for Russia, it is far away but at least it tends not to bomb the hell out of you using every concisely weapon in its arsenal, compared to the military arm of EU 鈥 NATO.
I am a strong proponent of making sure Serbia meeting all the requirements and , eventually joining EU. However, when (frequently) challenged with the question 鈥淚f THEY are so ferocious in ensuring our ill-being now, while still out of their full control, what are THEY capable and willing to do us once we surrender even this small bit of independence?鈥 鈥 I just have proof to provide reassuring answer to them.
Through galsses of an average Serb, the 鈥淲est or East鈥 dilemma translates more into: one side is too far to help me survive. The other wants me dead. What a choice!
"It may be a long time before Albania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine join, but the elite at least want in, and see their future with Europe rather than Russia.
Mark
Just to help you get the geopolitical realities right. It makes no sense to put Albania in the same league with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. No disrespect to these countries but Albania is a country in the Western Balkan/Southeast Europey and as you may know has already signed a SAA with EU, about to become a NATO member, whereas these countries have not
Albania severed diplomatic, political and economic ties with the former Soviet Union since 1961, dismantled its military bases in the country and formally left the Warsaw pact when the former Czechoslovakia was invaded.
Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Montenegro are more or less in the same boat with Macedonia slightly ahead in terms of the future EU membership
Very interesting reportedly speaking, this article has some interesting quotes, and one of my favourite would have to be "on how poor the towns get on the way to Kosova" its a fact that it gets poorer as you approach Kosova but once you enter Kosova you can see a domestic change in life style as the opposed to the comment, you will se clear road signs to Prishtina and the towns and collages are thriving with young people trying to build Kosova new and Independent future...
One the other hand the author has mentioned the fact that Kosova will become Independent regardless of Serbia's closest ally Russia. It is cleared that Russia is only interested in Serbia's resources and this has always been the case.
Serbia would have starved if it wisent for the Yugoslav merger which included Kosova/ Sandgjak and Vojvodina within Serbia, Let us see now what Serbia does with out Obilic( the biggest coal mine in the EU), Trepca (the largest resource of gold, zinc and cooper in the EU).
The ameriacan's/British know why Serbia wants Kosova to remain under serbia and that is not a dozen dozen churches and 50k serbs, the main reason is natural resources that would put Serbia up there with the big players in the EU.
We the Kosovars will never let another serb solider or police officer to enter Kosova... I for one will be the last man or the first man standing in on the battle grounds.
Another alternative is to add Serbia to the Russian Federation in a loose/guest type og association. It would be somewhat similar to Hawaii, being connected to the US, prior the 1950s. Serbia would be protected by Russian might, and would not be forever bullied by the West. Far fetched?
No, it is an interesting global supossition. I am sure that the Russians and the Chinese will love it.
Paul, Los Angeles
Dozens of separatist provinces, former countries and occupied areas (such as Kurdistan and Tibet) are hoping the Kosovo precedent will apply to their case as well. Will the sanctimonious EU types back Kurdish and Tibetan independence as well?
With Russia resurgent, China and India both on the rise in terms of trade it is certainly possible that Serbia could strive for a middle path like India, Turkey, and Yugoslavia did during the Cold War - in fact it might even be easier to take a middle path because geopolitics has changed from the bipolar relations of 80s, and the monopole of the 90s to what could almost be mistaken for a level playing field however its not really a fair match because in terms of improving its economic infrastructure the best partners for development in Serbia are in Europe - while its likely China would take an interest in cultivating stronger relations in the European theatre the delays due to the substantially greater distances would be a great disadvantage; similarly Russia would certainly be interested in investing in Serbia, but Russia does not have the breadth and depth of business diversity and potential investors/partners that could be found in Europe (seeing how most of Russia鈥檚 internal economic success is driven either by petroleum or outside investors 鈥 particularly French and British investors though certainly not exclusively and that may well change). Frankly in the long run Serbia needs to maintain some sort of relations with most of Europe it would be economically suicidal to do otherwise - as I'm sure the politicians are aware. On a side note Colonialism is a policy that is anathema to the world at large; the consequences of 鈥榓ctively engaging鈥 (that is to say making it a policy of state or having a state encourage such behavior among its citizens) in such methods would certainly result with in a great loss of life and would likely lead to strong global condemnation and isolation of the aggressor. Certainly Kosovo should be aware of and respectful of the status that much of the territory that Kosovo contains holds to many Serbs, regardless of whether or not they live in Serbia. A sincere effort by Kosovo to be accommodating on the cultural side would not only be a wise move, but it would also be the right thing to do ethically and would be the foundation upon which relations with Serbia must be built if things are to get better.
Josip Broz "Tito"(who some say was not an ethnic croatian/slovenian,but a Stalinist planted communist from Hungary/poland/Russia) let the "serbs" live like kings in "serboslave-ia" at the expense of Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia,Kosovo, etc. Most of the tax money to buy weapons came from Slovenia and Croatia and was then used to terrorise these people into supporting "jugoslavia"! The serbs had control of the secret police (UDBA), the best government and academic jobs, and control of the military, so it's no wonder that the Slovenians, Croats, Montengegrins,Kosovars,etc. voted to secceed from that fraudulent monstrosity called "YUGOSLAVIA"! The monstrous way that the Serbs behaved during the wars of indepedence for Slovenia,etc., is the same way they behaved before, during and after WW2!
Mark, your first line "Driving into Kosovo from Serbia, the villagers get poorer, the roads worse" betrays a bias - intended or otherwise. Kosovo is in, and an integral part of, Serbia. You wouldn't write 'Driving into Dorset (or the West Country) from England'.
The notion of an 'independent' Kosovo (which would soon be swallowed into a Greater Albania) is the most stupid - and dangerous - thing the West has supported in the past 25 years.
1- Serbians feels more close to Russia than European Union
2- most serbians are ultra-Nationalist
3- Nazism and Fascism is still a big problem in Serbia
4- i don't think serbia should be part of European Union.
But maybe 15-20 years later.
So Mark is saying:
1. If you do not join EU that means you want to join Russia.
2. EU should rethink it's soft approach to expansion. Mark what are you suggesting? Force!!!
Mark I do not have many nice things to say about russians but if it is people like you making decisions in the west world will need Russia yet again.
I have been following Kosovo's seperation from Serbia all those years starting from 1994. And yes such seperation for now does look inevitable which is another shock for Serbs of course. But then if you look at a map of Europe each 100 years starting from fifth century, you realise that nothing stays put. The EU is a product that we all wish to remain, but also know too well will not last for long. As for Serbia and Russia, wheather there is EU or not, it will always be too close to Russia to even consider choosing EU instead of Russia. It is a differnt game all together between these two gentlemen.
I have been following Kosovo's seperation from Serbia all those years starting from 1994. And yes such seperation for now does look inevitable which is another shock for Serbs of course. But then if you look at a map of Europe each 100 years starting from fifth century, you realise that nothing stays put. The EU is a product that we all wish to remain, but also know too well will not last for long. As for Serbia and Russia, whether there is EU or not, it will always be too close to Russia to even consider choosing EU instead of Russia. It is a different game all together between these two gentlemen. But at the same time it is West of course for both Russia and Serbia.
Serbia does not have much of a choice. The west has treated Serbia like rubbish for many years and i cannot see friendship between Serbia and the west. Russia has always supported Serbia, the people are the same and they have a long history of friendship. Serbia joining the EU just means that Serbia can be used as a puppet state by the west. I do not understand how any nation could accept something so illegal as the independence of Kosovo. The Albanian people are living in a dream world in the sense that they think Kosovo could survive on its own in the state that it is in now. Kosovo needs Serbia as its rightful owner to support it, Kosovo is a small and poor province, it simply cannot survive on its own. Serbia cannot have friendly relations with nations that are trying to take something away from the Serbian people which clearly is one of the most important places to the Serbs. The Serbs must fight for their sovereignty and they must stand up to states that are trying to ruin their country.
Go east.
Do let the door hit you on the way out.
NATO warplanes bomb Serbia in 1999 without UN authorization. Serbian civilians and military personnel lose their lives. The destruction of the country's infrastructure is shocking.
Nine years later, former Warsaw pact members have joined NATO and the EU, while the hawks of the Pentagon plan a 'defensive' missile system based in the Czech Republic and Poland, targeting... Iran and North Korea! Russians very naturally respond to this by offering their friendship and full support to anybody in the region that is not yet embraced by the EU/NATO syndicate. Serbians are traditional and increasingly valuable allies of Moscow in this area of the world. So the Russians are ready to do business with them and make the Serbian voice heard very loud and clear in international forums like the UN.
In the meantime, the geniuses of the West tell the Serbians that if they want to be considered (no promises given) for EU membership in the distant future, they have to agree now to leave Kosovo to the Albanians (the phrase 'independent Kosovo' is surely a joke!) and become friends with one of the major political arms of the alliance that bombed them in 1999... the EU!
For me the question is not what the Serbians will decide. Realistically speaking, they don't have a choice. My concern is why the West wrote off Serbia so easily... If I find the answer, I will post it in this forum. Meanwhile, I will keep coming back here to read Mr Mardell's blog. It is always entertaining to watch how surprised the Anglo-Saxons feel when they travel to the Balkans and come in contact with the native ...tribes. I belong to one of them ; -)
I totally agree with Marcel (52).
Some recent Kosovo history:
During 45 years of communism, demographics in Kosovo changed drastically. Serbs were subject to harassment and discrimination and slowly and surely forced to leave Kosovo, while Albanian immigrants from Albania moved in, and combined with the highest population growth rate in Europe, became majority.
So, when you add to that that Kosovo is a cradle of Serbia, obviously Serbs became very frustrated for being bullied and discriminated for so long, and rightfully so. Then, the communism was over, but what can you do now, Serbs were almost totally cleansed from Kosovo, 20% remaining. Then Milosevic with his stupid policies, and terrible political skills, just let them be completely ethnically cleansed in the end.
Of course, I hope everybody understands that, this is not about justice, it鈥檚 about who you have on your side, and who you give money and support. During the 90s, due to bad politics, Serbs had nobody on their side; and, according to US rules, you have to decide who is a good guy and who is a bad guy, and then blame a bad guy for everything, even for good guys bad deeds. However, this is too much.
Personally, I would rather have a strong, prosperous Serbia, without Kosovo and problem causing Albanians.
However, it is really shameful that leading EU countries just do what US tells them. They know European history, and they should know better than this.
Serbia belongs in EU, but with such message being sent to her by EU countries, there is no other option than to seek help from whoever wants to give help, and that is right now Russia, for whatever reasons they are doing it.
East or West can be also UK today question. Tito was (??? he never spoke any ex-YU language well) comunist dictator but in love with West. Later with East. UK promote own choice on name of "???" and "our behalf": support Kosovo as independent state. Argument: teritory with majority can declare own state. Rule exception : if on that teritoy live Serbs, they can declare: nothing .Interesting. East or West ...hmmm //strange dilema.com
I fail to see why Serbia should be compelled to cede (yet) another portion of it's land to simply appease the Albanian population, who mostly immigrated into Serbian Territory.
Much as I abhor the lack of democracy within Russia, they are to be commended for their support of Serbia.
If Serbia will choose East it will be like Albania doring the Soviet times, poor and neglected. If it will choose the West it will loose teretory and become the poor neighbor. The best place for it in the middel.
Serbia belongs in Europe, with the rest of the Balkans. A Kosovo outside Serbia seems inevitable now, unfortunately. Let's hope Kosovo will be the last mini-nation-state to be established in the Balkans. From now on, let us all work to bring the western Balkans into the EU.
So no great interest, just some interesting snippets of poetry, but the consensus is that Serbia will go west. Does that about wrap it up?
To Tomas Sural:
Tom I do not know your grasp of modern history but Serbian and Yugoslavian security forces gassed students in 1989 in Pristina.
In 1999 Serbian Security forces massacred civilian population and deported 100.000 people to such a scale that terrified Europe and even made Bill Clinton review his Presidential Executive Order 25 that was decided after the killing of American troops in Somalia.
If the Montenegrins, Slovenes, Croats, Bosnians and Macedonians were allowed to break away from Yugoslavia why not Albanians. At least the rest of them shared a language with the Serbs, share a common genealogy (slav hordes from the Urals, hence the attraction to Mother Russia). Why is so hard to give independence from Serbia. And some here quote UN Charters, well last time I checked Mass Murder, Ethnic Cleansing and Forced Deportation of own citizens rank pretty high on the DON'T list. Self Determination is on the DO list
Serbia, or rather the Serb nationalism, is a constant source of trouble, for at least 100 years now. I would suggest that we let them rot in their misery. What else can we do if they decide to keep living in the 19th century?
Russia has its own interests and will quickly forget the Serbs when the EU talks business.
Finally, I would respond to Tomas Soural (#3) that Serbia already lost Kosovo, factually and, most importantly, morally. Serbia mistreated the Kosovars and can hardly claim the right to rule over them. Sorry, but you messed it up for good. You need to develop a new perspective for your small piece of Europe.
I believe the vast majority of Europeans don't care about either Serbia or Kosovo or both of them together or what have you.
The consensus these days appears to be contra-enlargement, particularly in the Western half of the EU. So if Serbia would choose to align itself with Russia: so be it.
Who cares, basically. Let them sort out their own mess.
In 70s and 80s Serbia was orientated towards West politically, culturally, economically. It felt West as its good friend, as an example of a good society. People from Serbia had contractual ties with Western Europe, travelled to the West, worked there.
Then 90s started and all turned upside down. The West started to demonise Serbs because Serbs have got in the West鈥檚 way of their ambitious interests in the Balkans. Horror stories, a decade of economical sanctions against Serbia, blame for Balkan wars although that very West had a big involvement in them, barbarous 1999 Nato bombing, Hague court trying to accuse Serbs for everything bad happened, and now on the top of the cake supporting independent Kosovo to steal 15% of Serbia鈥 territory.
If one behaves to me in a bad manner, accusing me for something, which I have not done, beating me, bullying me, shall I support that person? Shall I treat him as my fried? What shall I do?
If we can turn our clock backwards now, it will not be too late to correct our own errors. However, now we have to live with that what we had planted years ago.
West or east, this is so easy. West of course.
Lets look on facts:
European Union is the main trading partner of Serbia. From Serbian exports, EU accounts for 56,7% and Russian Federation accounts for only 4,7%. Also EU is the main import partner with 55% compared to Russians 14,2%. So west versus east, west wins.
Serbia is land locked country that in east is circled by current EU members Romania and Bulgaria, and in the north by Hungary. In the future as Croatia joins the Union, encirclement of Serbia is near complete. Russia on the other hand is 1000km away from Serbia. So west versus east, west wins.
As what comes to visions of future. As Serbia, Kosovo, and other ex-Yugoslavia states join EU, EU will unite those countries again. As EU members they all would share the same currency, become border less, enjoy free movement and common rights guaranteed to EU citizens. What Russia is offering is geographical, political, economical and cultural isolation. So west versus east, west wins.
I'm sorry.. actually I'm not.. west wins 3 to 0. The future of Serbia and other formed Yugoslavia states is in the west as becoming part of united Europe gives more prosperity, freedom and opportunities than any other choice.
if the west means uk, usa , france,holland, belgium and their like than for sure i hope we choose russia. you should remember it is "west" countries that are asking it to choose, and they offer very litle in return. russia on other countries has allways been our ally, and we should show some loyalty too.
This whole deal around Kosovo is very disturbing. If in fact the independence will take place, it will confirm that you can gain territory by putting enough of your people in someone else鈥檚 country.
Just look at the Israel occupied territories since 1967 with massive Jewish population influx that makes some areas out of a question regarding returning back to a possible Palestinian state. If enough Chinese people migrate to Vancouver or Seattle, San Francisco, etc., will the USA also support their independence from the US? Applying the same justification as used in Kosovo or the West Bank, these Chinese cities (former US or Canadian cities) should become reality quite soon. And why should California not become independent as the majority already now is Spanish speaking? If the EU supports an independent Kosovo, they should also be prepared to grant independence to some suburbs of Paris where the majority is no longer French.
The trouble is that the Western governments are the same crooks as the governments of the former Soviet Union used to be. What ever suits them at a particular time, screw the truth or principles, or same standards for all. In such a world and in the 21st. century, it is very difficult for Serbia to decide where to turn to...
I think the EU should stop trying to save the world.
If the Serbs cannot see the obvious that looking west would improve their lives, then we should leave them at it.
As it is, the EU has allowed in many former Communist countries amid too much haste. The last thing we want to do is allow these ill-developed and unstable countries to bring down the EU. Most of the new members are fine, even though there is a small question mark still over Romania and Bulgaria.
But we should be very slow accepting the likes of the Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia, etc...as these are unstable, poor countries who, quite simply, make a mockery of all that the EU stands for. I call on an immediate freeze of any future new membership and let these messed up countries decide for themselves what they want. We have to stop trying to save everyone and start tying to save ourselves, namely a stagnant EU economy, immigration problems and terrorism problems. And, hey, the only countries, for the time being, that we should be trying to attract are good stable ones like Norway, Iceland and Switzerland!
I am an Albanian in California. I read the 大象传媒/Europe page and then I read your blog daily while I have my morning coffee at 5 am. That's how I keep informed about my old continent.
I wish to draw your attention to the fallacy that Kosovo is - according to Serbs - the heart of their nation. Noel Malcolm addressed this in his excellent "Short history" of Kosovo, which must be made obligatory read for Serbs and Albanians alike.
Ironically, Kosovo is in a way really the heart of the Serbian nation as we know it: the annexation of Kosovo has really defined Serbia as an aggressive expansionist nation since 1912. For those of us who know Serbia, the crimes committed by Serbs in Bosnia in the 90's were not surprising, they were almost natural, to be expected.
Later in that decade, in 1999 there was a time when I thought that Serbia achieved her goal of emptying Kosovo of its Albanians. Close to a million Albanians were expelled to Albania and Macedonia but thanks to the western nations, thanks to Britain, that nightmare stopped and Albanians went back to their homes.
With the imminent independence of Kosovo, Serbia will hopefully look inwards and change for the better, but I am not going to hold my breath. If they choose to isolate themselves, quite frankly they will only hurt themselves.
Of course we would say exactly that, "driving into Dorset from England" if Dorset was an EU-administrated country separated from England through a NATO-led war, speaking an alien language and praying to an alien god.
Pretending that Kosovo is still part of Serbia is really not going to help the issue at hand. Kosovo, even under Tito, never had more than 15% Serbs, and Milosevid did such a great job alienating the remainder of the Kosovar population that it is preposterous at best to insist the two are still one country.
i am serbian and majority of serbs do not want to be with European Union
instead we should keep our close ties with russia.
This east-west rhetoric is not only ridiculous, it is becoming dangerous! Recently, the 大象传媒 had a survey "Should we be afraid of Russia?" I couldn't believe my eyes! Why do you need to overemphasize so much the difference between "us" and "them" and, even worse, to convince the readers that they should make a choice?
Same with this title: Serbia choosing between east and west! And, as usually, here's a weird Russia representing east: strange alphabet and heat in the hotel room. Serbia, herself having a strange alphabet and hot hotels, is certainly Russia鈥檚 crazy little sister! The ultimate proof: same fashion on the streets! And, of course, as always when dealing with the weird East, there鈥檚 a historical proof: Russia was on Serbia鈥檚 side in the First World War! (and on whose side were France and England?). I almost forgot, a guy on the street (probably T. Nikolic鈥檚 or Seselj鈥檚 cousin) confirms that Serbs and Russians are the same.
I find it truly disappointing to find such simplified cultural representations in today鈥檚 world!
I totally agree with Marcel (52).
Some recent Kosovo history:
During 45 years of communism, demographics in Kosovo changed drastically. Serbs were subject to harassment and discrimination and slowly and surely forced to leave Kosovo, while Albanian immigrants from Albania moved in, and combined with the highest population growth rate in Europe, became majority.
So, when you add to that that Kosovo is a cradle of Serbia, obviously Serbs became very frustrated for being bullied and discriminated for so long, and rightfully so. Then, the communism was over, but what can you do now, Serbs were almost totally cleansed from Kosovo, 20% remaining. Then Milosevic with his stupid policies, and terrible political skills, just let them be completely ethnically cleansed in the end.
Of course, I hope everybody understands that, this is not about justice, it鈥檚 about who you have on your side, and who you give money and support. During the 90s, due to bad politics, Serbs had nobody on their side; and, according to US rules, you have to decide who is a good guy and who is a bad guy, and then blame a bad guy for everything, even for good guys bad deeds. However, this is too much.
Personally, I would rather have a strong, prosperous Serbia, without Kosovo and problem causing Albanians.
However, it is really shameful that leading EU countries just do what US tells them. They know European history, and they should know better than this.
Serbia belongs in EU, but with such message being sent to her by EU countries, there is no other option than to seek help from whoever wants to give help, and that is right now Russia, for whatever reasons they are doing it.
"At first we were confused. The East thought that we were West, while the West considered us to be East. Some of us misunderstood our place in the clash of currents, so they cried that we belong to neither side- and others that we belong exclusively to one side or the other. But I tell you, Irenaeus, we are doomed by fate to be the East in the West and the West in the East, to acknowledge only heavenly Jerusalem beyond us, and here on earth--no one." - St. Sava (of Serbia) to Irenaeus, 13th century
East or West? (cont).
Unnoticeded by many Bulgaria has just agreed to a gas pipeline deal with Russia that is expected to strengthen Moscow's grip over energy supplies to Europe.
By the same token Bulgarian government not only rejected but de facto sabotaged a project backed by the Brussels.
And I thought that Bulgaria is the newest, most enthusiastic member of EU?
It might me interesting to find out why has Sofia sided with Moscow.
Could it be, like in case of Serbia, just because of a common Orthodoxy and Cyrillic alphabet?
Personally, I have serious doubts.
i don't want to be with Kosovans, I don't want to see Bosnians or Croats,
and i don't want to know the Europe or European Union.
God Bless Serbia !
referendrum free the uk from this nasty binding treaty the eu needs us we dont need it it time we got a say 87 percent want out and it growing
Serbs are an emotionally handicap nation. Serbia as a state and Serbian nation have never in their history been able to create or have an understanding or honest relationship with any of their close neighbors. It is this unjustified fear of enemy-neighbors psyche that has been used for centuries to hold this nation "together" and frequently use it in aggressive mode towards its neighboring nations. That's the main reason that Serbia always tries to find "friend" at least hundreds, even thousands of miles away, in this case Russia. This mini-Nazi-state runs the same since 600 years ago, with the same rules of engagement in politics or anywhere. It is a state whose its foreign relations are based on a middle ages platform and to who EU looks as a joke of the day.
East or West? Sir, they belong nowhere! At least for now...
East od West... there is no Best!
I wonder what would EU say if Serbia suddenly decides: EU membership with territorial unity OR NO EU membership att all?
It is not impossible.
I guarantee you that Brussel would change it's tone. To the amount of seriousness of tone change from Belgrade.
Mirek Kondracki, do you have any kind of job, or do you just sit pretending to be British in London, and posting the views of the American Far-Right?
Russia has gas and oil. It sells them to all who wish to buy, for market prices. As usual, you misrepresent (that's what we Brits say about people who lie, Mirek) the case of Ukrainian gas. Ukraine inherited a 50% discount - 50%, can you believe it? - from USSR days. But now it's an independent country, so Russia asks it to pay the same fair price as Germany, Poland, etc. But Mirek Kondracki whines about this being unfair? I suppose he'd prefer the USSR-era subsidy? No, the reality is that Kondracki will post any anti-Russian claptrap he can invent. Russia builds the oil pipeline to Europe... Kondracki reports this as a threat??
If Russia sent a chocolate-bar to every child in Europe, the 大象传媒 would run a "Russia tries to force obesity and diabetes on Europe" story.
Mark Mardell writes:
It would be particularly important because this would not be a simple rejection of an organisation, just another Norway, Iceland or Switzerland deciding that the EU was not for them. It would be high stakes geopolitics, Serbia turning away from the West to face East.
This is really striking to read from an educated "westerner". The world seems to be changing colors... Couple of decades ago it was "soviet people",indoctrinated by CPSU (Communist Party) and its media that were considering political arguments before (and superior to) the economical ones. Now it is the "west" - and not just Mr. Mardell, but seems like large majority of 大象传媒 readership commenting on these sites. Do you people not understand that it DOES NOT REALLY MATTER MUCH WHAT POLITICS/IDEOLOGY you base your economic decisions upon. Whether it is communism or monarchism, democracy, or theocracy - political ideology should not be used to justify economic decisions, as the horse should not be put in front of the carriage no matter what is that horse and what is that carriage.
Clearly, "west" is not doing any favor to young eastern european countries by imposing its "geopolitics" upon their economy decisions. As I have mentioned in a previous post, which perhaps was among the things that lead to this discussion, for many small and mid-size european economies integrating with Russia is clearly an economically favored option. Indeed, consolidating into a bigger common market and economic cooperation can bring significant advantages to small and mid-size economies. However, there is a critical size of the common market, and EU's market is already too large. This is why joining EU appears hardly beneficial for the eastern european countries.
Russian economy - even if fully developed - will still be smaller than the optimal size, which is perhaps similar to the US, and 15-member EU of a decade ago (or former USSR to that matter). Therefore, it can benefit from consolidation with other small and mid-size economies - such as former USSR countries - Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, - but also Serbia and Bulgaria to that matter. Please, note - we are not talking of political domination or imperial subjugation. We are talking just "THE ECONOMY, STUPID". We are talking of economical benefits, which are brough (or lost) by adopting certain policies. Such economic consolidation and cooperation is beneficial for all parties. What is often perceived by "west" as "russian neo-imperialism" and "colonialism", especially with respect to former USSR member countries, are in fact simply a natural drive of russian economy aimed at consolidation so as to maximize profits. There is no ideology behind - just follow the money trail!
You might ask what makes me think so? Well, first there are simple arguments of the sort "what are perspectives of (for example) Ukrainian heavy industries, such as ship and airplane (components) buidling, in the EU"? The answer has already been experimentally obtained - look to Poland. Gdansk ship yard had 15,000 workers in 1980 now it is 3,000 and going down. And this is not the only example. Essentially, Polish industries are reduced to rubble by their EU competitors. EU market is well served by the industries already existing in Germany, France, Italy, ..., which can easily cover the new member countries, too.
So, is it possible that fate of e.g. Ukrainian industries would be better in economic alliance with Russia? The answer is almost certainly yes.
This assessment is easily verified by the recent figures of economic growth published by the CIA (just google GDP Armenia for example). Countries whose economies were closely linked with Russia, such as e.g. Ukraine and Armenia, grew significantly faster than similar countries whose cooperation with Russia was limited - Poland and Georgia provide excellent comparison. Even though Poland is a EU member, Ukraine's projected growth (provided its economic policies do not change) results in higher per capita GDP already in about 5 years. And of course Armenia (GDP per capita grew from $3,800 in 2003 to $5,700 in 2007) vs Georgia' (GDP per capita grew from $3,100 in 2003 to $3,800 in 2007) is another spectacular case. I encourage everybody to critically examine the figures - they tell the story. And numbers don't lie. Now, Bulgaria seems to have realized the advantages and is jumping on the train. Serbia might well do it, too.
Russia's economy, consolidated with its mid-size neighbors and powered by Russia's natural resources emerges as a powerful ECONOMIC competitor. This, perhaps, is the main driver behind "west's" POLITICAL pressure against such economic consolidation.
Well, sorry if I bored you, this was a long post...
Mim writes:
Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Montenegro are more or less in the same boat with Macedonia slightly ahead in terms of the future EU membership
FYI- GDP per capita in 2007:
Bosnia - $5,500
Albania - $5,600
Macedonia - $8,200
Romania - $8,800
Ukraine - $7,800
Belarus - $7,800
Russia - $12,100
The latter 3 are also growing faster. I would indeed not put them in the same boat with Albania.
Serbs, welcome to Trianon. Now get over it!
Let us not forget that you helped to start WW1 with it's millions of deaths. Let us not forget that got rewarded royally for that -receiving Yugoslavia from the Western Powers and not Russia, they surrendered to the Germans. And most of all, let us not forget that you screwed it up because you tried to lord it over everyone else.
Now that you lost your little empire you can either take it like a man and join the civilised world, or go about and trash around like is habitually done in Eastern Europe: Hungary joined the Nazis to undo Trianon, the Russians killed millions to undo Brest-Litovsk... What will you do?
Who cares what Serbia will choose. Kosovo is already independent,that only has to be formally recognised, and it will happen sooner or latter, regardless
of what anyone feels about it but kosovo
albanians , or who serbia chooses to ally with. no one is willing to put lots of money, time and lives to continually force albanians to stay in serbia,( and force is the only way, because they will not change their mind), and serbia is a too small and poor and insignificant country to matter to the way the world goes and it would be useful for serbs to understand that as soon as possible and start to do something productive, like working and earning money for instance, to improve their lives and get a life so they would get of everyones back finally.
2Mim wrote
"FYI- GDP per capita in 2007:
Bosnia - $5,500
Albania - $5,600
Macedonia - $8,200
Romania - $8,800
Ukraine - $7,800
Belarus - $7,800
Russia - $12,100
The latter 3 are also growing faster. I would indeed not put them in the same boat with Albania"
Indeed that is my point. Glad you understood. Albania has no business with the former Soviet Union other than normal bilateral relations. Albania will join the EU eventually which for all its flaws and imperfections offers a much more attractive and prosperous future than
being in the company of Russia.
P.S: I referred to Ukranie, Georgia and Moldova instead of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia
Serbia should go West but methinks they will go to Russia.
@Brian (64)
why don't you apologize to Serbia for your ridiculous slander?
Serbia was occupied by the Ottomans for centuries and thus a victim of islamic terror. Then came the Croatian nazi puppet state headed by Pavelic who tried to exterminate them. After that Tito's oppression and when he died, Izetbegovic invited middle east mujahedeen to resume the islamic terror.
The problem with you, Brian, is that you are buying the western media propaganda without questioning. The reality is what I spelled out.
I think what can be the best solution for the Kosovo problem i can not find such.
Declaring KOsovo indepedent (which is most likely) will be a GREAT mistake with unknown sequels - we have Cyprus, NI, Basque, autonomous republics in former Soviet Union e t.c. But the thing is that we have a 35% minority of Albanians in Macedonia - the most unstable country in the region , which may lead to another conglict in the Balkans involving Nato countries like Bulgaria and others .
I feel i am european but i am pessimist for the future of EU. I think that both NAto and EU will not exist in 2015 .
I hope i am not right , and that there will be peace at last in one of the hottest regions in the world.
Just my 2 cents.
PS: sorry for my bad english
thomas white wrote:
referendrum free the uk from this nasty binding treaty the eu needs us we dont need it it time we got a say 87 percent want out and it growing
87%? Where did you get that figures?
The UK will be left powerless on the edge of the largest trading bloc in the world if she decides to leave the EU. This will be bad for the UK and EU. All big political parties in the UK, Labour, Liberals and even the Conservatives support UK EU membership. Unless UKIP or the BNP comes to power (not a chance) the UK will stay in the EU. So get used to it!
if the west means uk, usa , france,holland, belgium and their like than for sure i hope we choose russia. you should remember it is "west" countries that are asking it to choose, and they offer very litle in return. russia on other countries has allways been our ally, and we should show some loyalty too.
Little in return? Serbia will get EU membership, an economic boost and will be respected internationally.
Note: Russia has done nothing for you the last 15 years but the West invested billions in Serbia.
Zoran wrote:
i am serbian and majority of serbs do not want to be with European Union
instead we should keep our close ties with russia.
Fact one: the mayority of the Serbs wants EU membership
Fact two: Pan-Slavism is dead so get used to it.
To Mike #31
If you'd know your history you'd know that the only NAZI PUPET STATE on the territory of former Yugoslavia was CROATIA! It was Croatians who KILLED half a million JEWS AND SERBS in concentration camps! It was CROATIA who embraced Yugoslavia to be ABLE TO SURVIVE and not suffer as the LOOSER!
And it was Germany to give it it's independence again!
Maybe you could google "independent state of Croatia" and see what comes up...
Very interesting indeed, esp. some comments. It seems that Europe returned to old european practice: to separate peoples in "good" ones (Albanians, Croatians) and "evil" ones (Serbians, Russians). The first group will be rewarded, the last one will be humuliated, punished and driven to an extinction. I was amused to know from comments that Serbs are responsable for WWI! The next step is to blame russians for german atrocities during WWII.
As russian I hope that Russia knows the nature of Europe and will choose freinds carefully. For me it is better if Russia will become chinese province - at least russians will not land in some kind of Dachau.
The eastern boarder of Great Albania will be on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. You cannot do anything against it. We have more children and we will take over together with our Muslim brothers from Turkey, Pakistan and Asia. Allah Akbar.
It was always funny for me why EU is so confident that there is no future for Eastern Europe but to join EU. I have never seen any arguments to prove why these countries cannot stay on their own, but what I have seen is a steady flow of pro-European propaganda everywhere. You can call it "soft power" or "attraction", but if you propagate only positive consequences and drop down any negative (sura they are, as well as positive ones), this is plain propaganda and that's it.
@Brian (64),
Why don't you apologize to Serbia for your ridiculous slander?
Serbia was occupied by the Ottomans for centuries and thus a victim of islamic terror. Then came the Croatian nazi puppet state headed by Pavelic who tried to exterminate them. After that Tito's oppression and when he died, Izetbegovic invited middle east mujahedeen to resume the islamic terror.
The problem with you, Brian, is that you are buying the western media propaganda without questioning. The reality is what I spelled out.
I don't know if Serbs belong West or East, but the fact is that if you are Russian or Belorussian or anything in between, or Chinese, or Cuban from Cuba, or Chavez' brother in law, or any other creep who hates West, at this moment you are a hero among Serbs and probably would be given a position in the government. The truth is that Serbs never really felt European. They blended with other ex-Yugoslavian nations in the now dead state of Yugoslavia, hidden from the shameful truth that surrounds their very existence. When the curtain fell, the world saw once again their true colors and psychotic characteristics. I know I am being harsh, but if you go back no more than 20 years and see what they did, you would understand that Serbs must not be allowed to enter any organization founded and participated by civilized nations, anywhere on this earth East or West. The world is way too progressed now to know anymore how to deal with that kind of crowd. It's like getting Mr.Solana go back in time to explain Celts how a cell phone works. Just forget it. Whoever wants to join Europe has already expressed their wishes. I would give a boost to the next candidates, Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia in financial aid and political stability so that those poor people who already feel and act like true Europeans, have a chance in this life to also live like us. By enriching Serbia's neighboring nations, for sure the people of Serbia will truly realize where they want to be. I think this is the only way to give them a wake up call. Other than that...I would say just let them become the North Korea of Europe so that the rest of us laugh at them daily.
East or West? Interesting question. What this article is asking, is whether Serbia wants to become "civilised" ie.join EU, or does it want to become the enemy of the Western world ie.gravitate towards Russia.
Civilised "Western" society, the one responsible for completely wiping out Indians of South America, Indians of North America, Aboriginals of Australia, responsible for milions of deaths in Africa, etc... Western world that only cares about their financial interests, ie, see Irak, Iran, North Korea/South Korea, Vietnam, etc....
More civilans have been killed in Irak in last 4-5 years than in more than 20 years of Sadam's rule. For the "West" these are just numbers, but for the families of these people they are not numbers, they are their loved ones. Killed, simply because of interests of the "Civilised West"? Serbian people in the Balkans have refused from day one to become just another "puppet" nation and as such they have been punished. 400 000 Serbs have been expelled from Croatia, no one in the world cares about that. While you are enjoying the beatiful Croatian coast please spare a thought for these people who will never be able to go back to their homes again because the West doesn't want them there. They are the biggest refugee group in the world. All the countries in the Balkans who willingly decided to bow to the West have "Western" military presence in their countries. Again, nothing is for free, and their "independence" comes at a price too. 150 000 Serbs have been forced to leave Sarajevo, no-one cares. 300 000 Serbs have been forced to leave Kosovo, no-one cares. Why, only because the Serbs don't want to bow to the West.
There are good and bad people in all countries and cultures around the world, however there isn't much positive about the policies of the "Western Governments". Is it moral to be swimming in wealth and yet not do a single thing about a catastrophy in Africa. Why doesn't the West do something about it? Or is Kosovo independence so much more important than milions of people starving to death, at this very moment. Looks like it is, because it is of strategic interest to Western powers for many reasons.
West or East?
East is not an ideal option, but the West is definitely not.
"To the Serbs who still demand that Kosovo be returned to Serbia, I think a math lesson is in order... If Kosovo were completely reintegrated, that would make 1/6th of the population Albanians, and ask yourself how many Serbs would be thrilled at the idea of 42 (out of 250) seats in the national parliament going to Albanians." [KF,#18]
That's a good point and a very relevant question. However, judging by results of Sunday vote, many Serbs haven't yet acquired Weapons of Math Instruction.
Firstly I must say that I've read a lot of very interesting and very idiotic comments here both in support of Serbia and against it.
Someone wrote about Serbia getting nuclear weapons to point at England. Laughable, and a pointless comment. (Had to mention it cuz I find it funny)
But Brian I have to say your comments are so ignorant and blind. WOW. Mini nazi state? Did you get that straight from Fox news or what?
Lets start off the Yugoslav wars were the greatest travesty of politics and humanity in a long time. Is Serbia innocent? No. But is Serbia the Devil and all out aggressor? No. Those wars were dirty and catastrophic. And all sides are guilty of evil. And all sides were victimized. Lets not forget that the mass expulsion of Serbs from Krajina was the single largest act of ethnic cleansing in all the Yugoslav wars. But I'm sure people like Brian would probably describe that as a "spontaneous act of mass migration."
But Really what should anyone expect, Western media has been portraying Yugoslavia as a black and white incident. But as is common with western views of the world everything is degraded in to the most simple, easily consumable package possible. Someone stated that Serbia alone caused WWI. I suppose that the power politics of the major powers and an attempt of the European monarchies to hold on to their last vestiges of power, not to mention the fast decline of the Ottoman Empire and the Austro-Hungarian empire's attempt to keep influence in the Balkans amist a growing Serbia / Greece / Bulgaria, Oh and Germany's real politik / middle Europa policies and England's attempt to isolate Germany had nothing to do with the war. No no these factors all were on the back burner and had ABSOLUTELY NO influence in starting WWI. Yeah its AALLL black and white.
Oh then there was the comment that ran something to the effect of "Russia is only helping Serbia to benefit themselves". Oh really, wow thats an epiphany. Of course they are. Every major power does that.. even the minnows of the world do it too. Do you people really believe that NATO bombed Serbia to prevent the plight of the Albanian people? Give me a break, there was and still are much bigger humanitarian problems in the world than Kosovo in the 90's. NATO (US, UK, GER, FRA) acted to benefit themselves, as any powerful nation would do. If the Kosovo Albanians had nothing to offer the US/UK they would not enjoy such support, because remember the Kurds of Turkey are suffering much worse to this day.
And my last comment in my over-extended rant is: Serbia's PM Kostunica has been described as a "hardline nationalist", yet when he help the West oust Milosevic he was a moderate western democrat. But now because he's not pulling the Washington line he's another "rouge bad guy". But alas its from our many infotanment agencies (大象传媒, CNN, CBC etc...) that the above "opinions" are taken from and blindly accepted as infalible truths, and then passed off as the radiant thoughts of those accepting them.
PS sorry for the rambling nature of my comment, and my pessimistic aproach, but I do hope to read a response to this. And I do have more to say....
Being orthodox Slav myself and citizen of the EU, I certainly cannot remain indifferent to the fate of all those Serbian families who remained in their motherland Kosovo under Albanian ethnic government. What I would expect is that they shall be largely humiliated and discriminated by the local authorities as a revenge for the atrocities committed against the Albanian minority in Yougoslavia by the former communist regime. I shall be very glad to know that I have underestimated the solemn declarations of the newly elected Pristina authorities as how the two ethnic groups shall live in peace and prosperity... I shall be glad to know that I was mistaken鈥
Nevertheless, I'm convinced that we Bulgarians shall support our neighbors the Serbians (and not only the Serbians) for joining the EU, thus helping them to solve all those pressing problems that are making their live difficult. I think, by that time, we shall have enough experience and the necessary means to be faithful partners of all those neighbor nations of the west Balkans who are still waiting to be invited to negotiate their EU membership鈥
(I agree with Mr.Tiberiu Horj /Romanian American/ when he says "the Albanians that burned Orthodox Churches should go to jail and the Serbians that stirred trouble should account for it. But I would disagree with him if he still uses such expressions like "you Slavic hordes" because of the simple fact that many Slav nations have already joined the EU鈥
I would disagree also with Mr.Mirek Kondracki on another essential point: the support we Bulgarians have just given to the Russian energy projects /I mean the Southern stream, the Bourgas-Alexandropoulos pipeline and the Belene nuclear plant/. The argument is more than simple: profit and stability!
Mr. Kondracki, I presume you shall not deny our right to make our own choice of our trade partners...
I am, as Mr. Tiberiu Horj/Romanian american/ put it, just another 鈥淩ussian lover鈥, but I am European citizen as well...
If I were you, I would rather seek the proper answer to the simple historic fact: Why we orthodox people /Serbians, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Greeks, Cypriots, Bulgarians, etc鈥/ have preserved over the last centuries enough sympathy and veneration for Russia?
And I would permit myself to remind to Mr. Tiberiu Horj just another historic fact: your motherland, Mr.Horj, obtained its independence thanks to the successful wars that Russia waged against the Ottoman Empire...
You see friends, it is high time that we Europeans should reconsider our relationship with Russia on the basis of the mutual interests and responsabilities...
Someone wrote #80:" The eastern boarder of Great Albania will be on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. You cannot do anything against it. We have more children and we will take over together with our Muslim brothers from Turkey, Pakistan and Asia. Allah Akbar."
- Ha ha ha! Very funny guy! I am Albanian and I know who writes these kind of posts. Surely no Albanian. You would need an army to find any Albanian in the whole world who would write such stupidity. These kind of games are old brother. They belong to the 1600-s. That's how antiquated Serbian politics is. Civilize yourself!
"i am serbian and majority of serbs do not want to be with European Union
instead we should keep our close ties with russia."
Glad to hear that. Don't let the door kicking you in your behind on the way there.
KOSOVO IS SERBIAN. i think answer is RUSSIA. we don't need another western garbage. serbian nationlist party has alot of allies out of the world since we don't need EU.
Anonymous writes:
P.S: I referred to Ukranie, Georgia and Moldova instead of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia
I intentionally put Ukraine in the group where to my opinion it belongs. As for Georgia and Moldova -they fit well with Albania and Bosnia, just look at GDP/capita numbers.
Anonymous writes:
Albania will join the EU eventually which for all its flaws and imperfections offers a much more attractive and prosperous future than being in the company of Russia.
As you may have noticed, this is exactly the question that is discussed. While Albania is too unimportant for consolidating russian-east-european economies and has not much perspective there, belief that joining EU will somehow miraculously bring you prosperity is not supported by numbers. Just look at GDP/capita and the growth rates of the new East European EU member countries - Poland, Bulgaria, Romania. They do not seem to have been offered more prosperous future compared to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus.
I recently imnterviewed the two Ambassadors from the Check and Slovak Republiks, asking them if their separation made sense (as splitting a small country in two, of course might rise a number of questions on feasability) Well the convinced answer: "that it is much better to be the master in your own home", looked very convincing. An independent Kossovo &Serbia might trigger resources of enterpreneurship, otherwise burried and unheard of and result in a beneficial virtuous circle of creation of wealth and creativity which in the long run could be an important addition for the United Nations. "My Home is my castle" Everybody should feel empowered and responsible in this new World, without any "higher power" abusing them.
Hey,Mark:
Blog title rhymes well but implies a choice between two options;in fact, there are not.
Irrespective of Serbia's vote Russia will be around and not only in Serbia;it's pretty clear, I guess.
So, what's all the fuss about?
...It's funny how some people are afraid of Russia and some even hate it; but like it or not we'll be around for a long run so it's better to accept each other as we are as divorce is not possible anyways.
Serbia will be a successful nation no matter what EU or Russia say, they just need to decide what is in their best interests and follow it through.
To 2 Anonimous Mim
Unimportant and small as it is Albania stood up to Russia and kicked it in the but in the '60.
We do not need Russia and never will . This country was the main culprit for the bloodiest social and political experiment in the 20th century worse even than Nazi Germany.
Albania, after getting rid of the totalitarian past, is not looking to find again inspiration from a new quasi totalitarian state that kills and oppresses its own citizens. Instead Albania has embraced wholeheartedly its European vocation.
You always stick to GDP per capita as the magical answer to all the problems but this is only the tip of the iceberg. Being the largest country in terms of surface area and blessed with vast natural resources, the Russian economy measured in absolute value is the same size as Dutch economy, with Holland ten times smaller in terms of population and only 40.000 square kilommetters compared to Russia. So much for Russian economic strength.
Do I need to remind you that Romania and Bulgaria become members only last year and I do not expect miracles to happen within a year or two.
EU is a success story in terms of democratization, consolidation of rule of law, human dignity and human rights and economic prosperity, notions that hardly can become part of Russian psyche.
Look at Ireland, Portugal, Greece, and also the former Russian colonies, Baltic republics as well as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic. There is plenty of evidence out there to see what EU can offer as opposed to Russia
Sitting on the fence is not a very comforable position; not in the long run. So make a choice and jump on your prefered side, for you can't have it both ways!
[Nobody respects and suffers gladly people with divided loyalties]
For some clearly East is best, for others - West.
Let them go merrily their own separate ways. For:
"EAST IS EAST AND WEST IS WEST AND NEVER THE TWAIN SHALL MEET."
Quote:
If Mr Tadic wins, the EU are hopeful that an accommodation could be reached with Belgrade and that the Serbs would reluctantly tolerate EU judges and police officers in Kosovo because any border erected this year between Serbia and Kosovo will come down the day both countries join the EU.
What a perfect case of shameless hypocrisy. If it were really so, why creating a new state now(by ignoring the international law)when we are all going to live in United Europe sooner or later?
Mim writes:
>Russian economy measured in >absolute value is the same size as >Dutch economy, with Holland ten >times smaller in terms of >population and only 40.000 square >kilommetters compared to Russia.
Man, update your numbers - you're living in the (although recent) past! As of 2007 Russia's economy is right above Brazilian, nearly equal to Italy-France, being #9 in the absolute size ranking. And indeed, quite recently it was behind the Netherlands in that chart - this is the growth part I was talking about.
Are you sure you are "getting rid of the totalitarian past"? Then, stop think "kicking butts" and start trying "manufacturing goods" - this is the key to prosperity, and not joining EU, east or west.
Mim writes:
>worse even than Nazi Germany
Tell this to jews, of whom 6 millions were exterminated - not by russians, you might know, but not without a help of "kicking butt" albanians - as you might know as well. Personally you, of course may indeed prefer gas chamber to Siberian GULAG. I am glad though my grandpa had the second one - he even returned home after 10 years (I am really wondering how would gas chamber be better).
Mim writes:
>We do not need Russia and never
>will.
Yeah, sure wood stove heating and horse transport don't require electricity/gas/oil.
"East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet"
Mark Twain
As long as you people realize that we still live on the same planet.
And in the end no matter how hot headed you may be in your black and white world of good and evil you will come to realize that we all need each other and we are not that different or superior from the next guy or in this case Nation. We are just different shades of gray.
"The eastern boarder of Great Albania will be on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. You cannot do anything against it. We have more children and we will take over together with our Muslim brothers from Turkey, Pakistan and Asia. Allah Akbar."[#80]
You forgot to mention Iran, Radovan!
May I give you a friendly advice?
Next time you want to pretend to be an Albanian Muslim fanatic (or a Bosnian one, for that matter) try 'ALLAH U'EKBER!' You'll be more convincing.
Oh, and ask Ratko to show you on his military maps where Pakistan is located.
BTW. Where are you located these days?!
Im an Albanian from Kosovo|a.
I am shocked when I read comments comparing Kosova to Londons Bangladeshi or Indian immigrants! Kosova was not an empty land granted from the Lord himself to the Serbs!
We have our roots there, we have history and tradition.
Other than historical reasons why Kosova ought to be independent, there is no moral right to claim Kosova as a Serbian territory any longer after what happened during the year 99.
Committing genocide on its people and then claiming to "protect" it its ridiculous!
As for Serbs wanting to become a Russian minority in the EU I totally support it! They will never apologize for any of the crimes they commited and they will never be able to comply or absorb any of the EU standards!
Albanians belive in Democracy and Freedom and we deserve to be respected and treated equally!
To those Serbs who belive Kosova is Serbia, i suggest they visit Prishtina maybe and see for themselves!The Serb and Russian flags have been replaced with those of the EU and USA!There is no Dinar , but there is Euro instead! There is no Serb cop pointing a gun at u and stealing your wallet, there is the KOsova Police Service who ask how can they help you! Bottomline, Serbs are not welcome in Kosova anymore! We have suffered enough and we want to lead a decent life! Cheers to that!
Any talk of a "third way" is just a cop-out based upon fear and insecurity vis-a-vis the more developed world. India was once home to such wishful thinking, but has fortunately abandoned it. Serbia is no India, and is not likely to become a developing euro state anytime soon.
Serbia has sat on a cultural and historical fault line for centuries. It will take a future generation of young Serbs to bring this country into Europe. Endless self-pity and paranoia about the "west" will of course get the Serbs nowhere economically or politically. It'll just take them quite a few more years to find this out.
This picture of Serbia and Serbs from this author's blog is so black and white that you can hardly see any other colors over there.
It is typical British point of view, so arrogant and typical to someone coming from a 'higher ground'.
Wake up people, you are not an empire anymore.You are an important member of EU, which most of you have a hard time to swallow, but nothing more than that.
And you've also shown the rest of the world that you can be great America's poodle over Iraq fiasco.....
There is always an excuse (answer or whatever) for what is happening in Kosovo and that Albanians were oppressed and being expelled.
I am not Serbian or Albanian and was never bullied or prosecuted during old Yugoslavia or after the collapse in nowadays Serbia. There are many other nationalities living in Serbia and are not being oppressed 鈥 except Albanians? So is it same greater interest of leading powers and politicians running their personal interests that are at play here? Of course there is more to this story than just my simple analogy of today's happenings.
Regards,
Mick
2 Mim wrote
"Man, update your numbers - you're living in the (although recent) past!
As of 2007 Russia's economy is right above Brazilian, nearly equal to Italy-France, being #9 in the absolute size ranking. And indeed, quite recently it was behind the Netherlands in that chart - this is the growth part I was talking about.
I updated my numbers and it turns out that indeed Russia has overtaken Netherlands (congratulations) and is catching up with Canada, if that makes you feel better. However it still lags behind UK, France, Italy, Spain, never mind the US, Japan Germany and China.
Russian economic growth is due to the rise in oil prices and not a marked increase in productivity rates. You may be able to make the distinction here yourself
Check: www.imf.org. (International Monetary Fund as you may know, a more reliable and credible source of information than your phoney page) Click on Data and Statistics and you'll fnd an itemized report for October 2007
2 Mim wrote
"Are you sure you are "getting rid of the totalitarian past"? Then, stop think "kicking butts" and start trying "manufacturing goods" - this is the key to prosperity, and not joining EU, east or west.
Albania is far from being a fully-fledged democracy but it scores far better than Russia in terms of individual rights and democratic process. Political opponents are not taken out ruthlessly with polonium sufficient enough to wipe out an entire city (KGB style).
About "manufacuring goods" I thought it would be wiser for you not to bring up this subject at all. We have plenty of experience with "Made in Russia" techonology. Suffice to mention Chernobyl accidents which is a clear example of outdated techonolgy and technical incompetence
2 Mim wrote
"Tell this to jews, of whom 6 millions were exterminated - not by russians, you might know, but not without a help of "kicking butt" albanians - as you might know as well. Personally you, of course may indeed prefer gas chamber to Siberian GULAG. I am glad though my grandpa had the second one - he even returned home after 10 years (I am really wondering how would gas chamber be better)"
I cannot begin to undestand what you are writing about. Your claims are absurd and ludicrous and I wonder whether you ever tried to read a history textbook
Albania was the ONLY country in EUROPE whose Jewish population was on rise after the World War, a fact acknowledged by numerous scholars and by the State of Israel. NOT a single Jew in Albania at that time was handed to Germans. For more information see "Albania at war 1939-1845" by Bernd Fischer
The same cannot be said of Soviet Union where a virulent form of antisemitism was constantly present throughout 20th century.
the last part of your comment is not worthy of an answer. something tells me you are from the Balkans
This ends my exchanges with 2 Mim
To 97:
There is GDP and then there is GDP, I'm now talking about GDP nominal and GDP power purchasing parity. If we want to compare economic power of an country, then we use GDP nominal as it gives the figure in cold hard cash and when we want to compare standard of living we use GDP PPP per capita.
Russia is quite far behind when you compare with GDP nominal: EU is x14, US is x13, China is x2,6, France and Italy are x2, and Spain is x1,2. If you also count that Russia is essentially oil and gas country with out major production nor service sector, it's economic power is... well... not that good... and the prospects it can offer are... not so sunny.
Just a few points about official Serbian standings on Kosovo future.
The government proposal, from the end of November 2007 (and it's Kostunica, backed up by president Tadic and the radicals) says:
-no Serbian army in Kosovo
-no Serbian police in Kosovo
-separate constitution and symbols
-separate relations with IMF, WB and other financial orgs
-even separate sport's leagues
-its own tax an judicial system, local governments, etc
-no interference in privatisation issues
-if they want, they can (but don't have to) vote for Serbian parliament
-just 2 major elements of Serbian 'rule' - 1 ambassador in the UN and basic border control
Don't forget, these are the Serbia's 'hardliners' talking, not some pro-western liberals. Anyway, this was easily rejected.
Just one point - there are over 200.000 Serbian refugees from Kosovo, hundreds have been killed since 1999. Why didn't US and EU bomb Kosovo? Or why didn't they bomb Croatia in 1995 when it expelled 250.000 Serbs?
Milan
Let's assume that all what you claim is true and Serbia is prepared to offer everything to Kosova apart from UN representation and basic border control.
I would ask you? What difference do these two elements make ? Hardly any, I would say.
From what you write it seems that Serbia is prepared to give up its domestic jurisdition over Kosova in exchange for the international non-recognition of Kosova.
In practical terms why would Serbia be interested in representing Kosova in UN when it is going to exercise no control over it. 2)Why would Serbia want to protect the borders of Kosova? to defend Kosova from Albania, Macedonia or Montenegro ??
So it is only the symbolic aspect that Serbia is worried about, never mind "Kosova is the cradle of Serbia" etc
I have a number of Serb friends and they are fed up with this empty rhetoric, with this state-of siege mentality, with the idea "everybody is consipiring against us", with blaming the others for your own faults
Why would the whole world would conspire against Serbia? Have you ever asked yourself that question.
The problem with Serbia is that it has yet to come to terms with its own recent past and accept its responsibility for what happened.
Furthermore Serbia has not had the political and moral courage to come out publicly and apologise to Kosovar Albanians for all the atrocities and gross violations of human rights in Kosova during the conflict.
Serbia will remain hostage to the past unless it shrugs off this burden and moves on. The best example in this respect is Germany
Actually, Russia was never much of the ally of the Serbia. Take your history book and check it out. It's was actually only at the beginning of 20th century that Serbia improved its relationships with Russia and joined the same alliance, where the big players where also British Empire and France.
So, most of this talk of some historical ties between Russia and Serbia is largely a nonsense. Even now, Russia's primary interest in this matter was to obtain control of Serbia's oil monopoly for cheap price. Putin got it almost as a present.
Dragoljub [#108] wrote:
"most of this talk of some historical ties between Russia and Serbia is largely a nonsense. Even now, Russia's primary interest in this matter was to obtain control of Serbia's oil monopoly for cheap price. Putin got it almost as a present."
Bulgaria's current GDP (purchasing power parity) is $78.68 billion, Romania's $202.2 billion, Greece's $256.3 billion; Poland- which has joined EU only 3 years ago - has a GDP of $552.4 billion.
I don't think those figures require any comment: they speak for themselves. And one would think that a current level of a country's GDP should be more important to its citizens than its ancient glory.
But judging by the results of their Sunday elections Serbs are almost evenly split regarding that issue.
Just a few remarks. Serbs and Albanians are similar in that many of them live in countries bordering Serbia (Rep. srpska etc) and Albania (Kosova etc). Percentage wise I think the Albanians are in a worse position. A peaceful solution could have been achieved by drawing borders on an ethnic basis. That chance was lost in the early '90s because a "legend" glorifying defeat would give the definition to "ethnic" a timespan of quite a few centuries and still be contested by the other side.
On the legality side, the only non-conforming aspect with regards to international law (which I would rather call "best/worst practices") is the fact that very few people died in the Kosova war as compared to other independence conflicts worldwide. Politicians are not at ease if the cost paid is not highly deterring to other secessionist movements. Why was the level of destruction and number of people killed in Kosova lower? ... There you go, the answer is a very good definition for "sui generis".
Now, czar Putin the Soviet would be on the "worst practices" side of the definition if he would attack Georgia/South Ossetia etc. etc. and argue that there is a precedent.
However, let us hope this does/doesn't spill over in BiH. Nation states? Anyone? Not really, because "old Europe" would pay for all the armies and administrators that would ensure it may return its attention to taking care of its next face lift.
Ps. What was the serb army doing around Durres at the end of 1912, 1913? The greek in Korca? The montenegrin in Shkodra?
Mirek Kondracki wrote:
>Bulgaria's current GDP (purchasing >power parity) is $78.68 billion, >Romania's $202.2 billion, Greece's >$256.3 billion; Poland- which has >joined EU only 3 years ago - has a >GDP of $552.4 billion.
I am glad you people finally started looking at the numbers! As I have mentioned and you seem to agree -they speak for themselves. Going from where Poland and Bulgaria are to the top of the list where worlds largest economies are, we find Russia currently #7 (Europe's #3) with GDP PPP $ 2.076 trillion, closely trailing UK with $2.147 trln. Extrapolating this growth from the fact that Russia's economy at the beginning of Putin's first term was indeed half the Netherlands would be too optimistic. However, it is very real for Russia to become Europe's largest economy, bypassing Germany, in about 5 years.
Now, comparison of the growth that Russia and Ukraine have had over the last 3 years, which is mainly fuelled by the investment that comes from selling natural resources with that of e.g. Poland, which is supposed to be fuelled by the integration in EU, I find that the latter is less attractive (the growth is weaker in Poland/Bulgaria/Romania). Again - these are just numbers, not attitudes/ideologies/opinions.
mim wrote:
>International Monetary Fund as you >may know, a more reliable and >credible source of information than >your phoney page
As I mentioned, the source I am using is the data provided by the US Central Intelligence Agency - CIA world factbook, The compilation presented on that indexmundi site is slightly outdated - according to CIA most recent data Russia has already bypassed France and is currently Europe's third largest economy, and is set to become the second only to Germany by next year.
Jukka Rohila wrote:
>There is GDP and then there is GDP, >I'm now talking about GDP nominal >and GDP power purchasing parity. If >we want to compare economic power >of an country, then we use GDP >nominal as it gives the figure in >cold hard cash and when we want to >compare standard of living we use >GDP PPP per capita.
Well, CIA uses CDP PPP, and this is understandable. PPP allows to compare countries whose currencies are under/overvalued. As an example -consider rise of the euro vs dollar exchange rate in 2000-2007. This makes relative size of say German economy increase by a factor 1.5 compared to the USA. This, of course, is just an artefact of currency valuations - the relative sizes of these economies stayed roughly the same. The more undervalued the currency is, the larger is the discrepancy between GDP PPP and GDP nominal - the best example is China, world's second largest economy, whose currency is grossly undervalued and where they differ by roughly a factor 4. In Russia the ratio of the two is roughly 1.4, indicating that rouble is still somewhat undervalued compared to dollar. European economies of course "zoom up" in dollar nominal, simply because the euro is overvalued.
Just a disclaimer: I am neither ethnic serb, nor russian, and the closest I ever was to Balkans was Italy.
Kosovo is no different than South Eastern Turkey. Kurds outnumber by far the Turks as do the Albanians in Kosovo. Yet the PKK fighting for the Kurds liberation are considered terrorists. The Albanian Kosovars guerillas are looked upon as heroes. If Kosovo gets her Independence so should Kurdistan-South East Turkey. Here we are talking about 20 million Kurds. one-tenth of this are Albanian Kosovars Yet USA and most EU countries and others want to see an Independent Kosovar ruled by Albanian majority. How about an Independent Kurdistan in South East Turkey. Typical US HYPOCRACY!
Egor, such comparisons have no sense. Poland is relatively wealthy country with steady and very large GDP growth rate, while Russia is climbing back from a recession. Linear predictions don't apply here, similarly as in case of chess beginner - you don't see a master in everyone who likes chess and is making a good progress from total lack of knowledge on the game.
We'll see, anyways. In this moment i know that Poland is safe, good-to-live-in country. Not only for Poles;)
East or West, which is best?
I guess we'll find in a couple of days whether East is best to depend on for gas deliveries to the West.
[fortunately for EU citizens - winter has been v. mild so far.]
Re #111
Assuming that USSR II (under reconstruction) would surpass Germany economically in 5 years is simply a wishful thinking at best.
Putinesque Russia is basically a monoculture: oil/gas and nothing else.
Where will it leave it when most of the civilized world moves to other sources of energy for environmental/climatological reasons?
BTW. Can you name any Russian export products besides oil, vodka and AK-47?
What's critical is to create the new society with the best of the Albanian values of religious tolerance within the Albanian community, spread to include the other ethnicities and minorities of non-albanian origin.
This would ensure that Albanian culture, itself a model of tolerance and inter-religious tranquility, will advance the respect and influence of its own culture in the Balkans and beyond.
Who is fifty or older, and born in Yugoslavia, know very well (wanting to admit it or not) that all of the republics were feeding Albanians since end of WWII (even before, when they fled Albania from Mussolini and settled in Kosovo).
What oppression did they endure: having schools and universities in Albanian? (Why don't Mexicans have Spanish Universities in US?), Getting welfare and extra money for having a lot of kids.... Kicking Serbs out of their homes and land for 50 years and not being punished for it?
Can they get more from the US? Whoever had contact with the West and western democracies, has learned the hard way that there is no free lunch. What will happen when Albanians do not like it again. Will they proclaim independence from US?
Is that allowed? Did anyone try it?