大象传媒

Francisco Hernando Village is neat and well-manicured for a ghost town. The complex near , should be home to around 40,000 people, but as I wander around I hardly see a soul.

Will places like this be the key to ?

The climbing-frames and swings in the playground are in bright primary colours, their shine unscuffed by children鈥檚 feet.

No one disturbs the unbroken views across the park, with its neat line of spring flowers, shaded areas and rows of palm trees.

No one stares across the large crescent-shaped lake at the 100-foot high fountain.

Three sides of a large, new and modern block of flats, brown brick and big balconies, curve round a wide-open space complete with a court of ball games and a large swimming pool.

Not a splash, not the bounce of a ball disturbs the peace of the late morning.

Science fiction movie

In fact it鈥檚 rather like some science fiction movie about a happy town where the whole population has been spirited away by some unknown alien force.

I am not, however, investigating anything quite so melodramatic, but how the economy is playing in Spain鈥檚 general election which takes place on 9th March.

I鈥檓 told that until now both Spanish politicians and voters alike treated the economy like a force of nature but now 鈥渋t鈥檚 the economy stupid鈥� is true here too.

So the population of this town has not disappeared but simply never arrived, or at least has yet to do so.

The development of 13,500 flats is one of the largest in Spain. On one of the well laid-out roundabouts is a statue of a man and a woman, looking a little like Prince Charles with his arm around a younger Mrs Thatcher.

This is Francisco Hernando and his wife. His is an amazing story.

Richest man

He is said to be Spain鈥檚 richest man from very humble beginnings. According to Spanish financial papers, he can鈥檛 write and can barely read, yet has made a fortune, originally building sewerage systems.

This project is his brainchild, a plan to provide relatively low-cost housing in a country where many people cannot afford to take out a mortgage in the first place.

From a distance, in the smoggy air, this could be mistaken for a boom town.

Tall cranes loom over half-built apartments marching across the plain.

But look for a little while and none of the cranes moves an inch. No ant-like workers are scurrying around their base. Work has stopped on the latest stage of this project.

Although there are some local political problems the same is true all over Spain. It is not just at siesta time that the machines stand idle.

'For Sale'

Eventually I catch sight of a man hanging out a 鈥淔or Sale鈥� sign out on the balcony of his fourth floor flat.

We have a shouted conversation until he comes down to talk. He seems happy to do an interview until he learns we're British: he wants publicity in Spain.

He bought the flat as an investment but hasn鈥檛 been able to sell it as yet. He tells us the economy has definitely slowed down, but he is confident that he will sell in the end, it鈥檒l just take more time..

, tells me the problems here are typical.

For many, Spanish property means not a home but an investment. There has been a huge, continuing building boom for years. Some of the statistics are staggering.

More new homes were built in Spain in the last five years than in France, Germany and Britain put together.

Half the cement made in Europe ended up in Spain. But Dr Seisdedos says builders used their profits to reinvest and build more. Because of the worsening economy, including rocketing food prices, people aren鈥檛 buying.

So there鈥檚 no money to invest and the banks aren鈥檛 lending because of the world crisis. , he says.

And it matters because so much of the Spanish economy is tied up with construction. When the cranes stand idle it means unemployment is going up.

Investment property

Back at the flats, I finally spot a really live resident. Eugine Nicholov, who鈥檚 originally from Ukraine, is out kicking a ball around with his curly-haired little girl and his wife.

It would make a good picture for an advert. He bought their flat six years ago and moved into it as soon as it was ready last September.

He says of the 290 apartments in this block only about 50 have been bought. He says very few people actually live here, for most it鈥檚 an investment.

There are a few more people around at the weekends, but there are only a handful of cars in the underground garage and you need a car to get around here.

I say that it must be very odd living in a place like this. Eugine replies that it鈥檚 not as bad as you鈥檇 think, it鈥檚 very peaceful and you don鈥檛 get disturbed by noisy neighbours.

Burst bubble

But he says the and if he had to sell up now he鈥檇 lose money.

There鈥檚 an advert taped to a lamppost. The man at the other end of the phone, who lives in Madrid, says he鈥檚 got 12 flats and is selling at less than cost price.

He is in this for the money and would, of course, sell for more if he could. But he thinks they will shift in the end.

I hope you know I always welcome your comments: but more than ever on this story, which I won鈥檛 be broadcasting until next week just before the elections.

Am I right that the economy is the big issue in this election? Is property the key? What about unemployment and food prices? If you live in Spain, or know it well, how does it feel to you?

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• - What's this?

The Germans and the French are arguing that EU plans to fine polluting car makers are too harsh. Ministers are having their first say about a law proposed by .

But the Environment Commissioner has told industry ministers, meeting in Brussels, that鈥檚 the point: the fines are meant to hurt so much that car companies will change their behaviour to avoid them. .

I鈥檝e been keeping an eye on the plans for a new EU law to cut carbon emissions from cars. This was the first chance for ministers from the 27 EU countries to get their teeth into the detailed plans that were announced in December.

The aim is cut the average emissions of CO2 to 120 grams for every kilometre driven by 2012. A key part of it is a complex formula to fine companies that break the law. At first it would be 拢20 for every gram per kilometre over the limit, going up to 拢70 by 2020.

The exchange came at , which is a gathering of industry ministers. Representatives of 12 countries spoke.

Too steep

The Germans argued that the fines were too high and needed to be reviewed. The French agreed that the increase was too steep.

They were backed by ministers from Eastern Europe. The British representative, a civil servant not a minister, spoke but did not comment on the level of fines. The British government doesn鈥檛 have a formal position on this yet.

responded by saying that the whole point of the fines was that they should be so punitive that they would be avoided.

The last thing they want is car companies incorporating a little light penalty into their business plans. The commission, and environmental groups, want them to be high enough that companies will be determined to avoid them, even if that means expensive investment to develop new techniques.

This was not a particularly important meeting and it wasn鈥檛 even formally agreed that ministers would resume the discussion when they meet again in May. But it鈥檚 a crucial part of the debate on this important plan.

In the jargon, it鈥檚 the environment ministers who are 鈥渋n the lead鈥� and they meet next Monday for their first debate on the issue. It's 13 months since the commission first outlined these plans and, to guess how long this all takes before it becomes law, one has to resort to the proverbial piece of string.

If things go really quickly, ministers will have their final say in June and it could then go the parliament in the autumn. But ministers would have to motor as fast as a BMW down the speed-limitless autobahn, and that鈥檚 not in their nature.

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• - What's this?

What started as my response to just one of the comments to my various postings on Kosovo has developed into something longer, so I鈥檝e put it here rather than underneath the comments.

Dan Mattei complains that I have selected only pictures of Serbs who are 鈥渦gly, unshaven and had no teeth鈥� in contrast to the photos of 鈥測oung and beautiful鈥� Albanians.

There are three pictures on the page. One is a crowd scene from too great a distance to make any judgement. One is of an old man with both a cigarette and a tooth pick in his mouth.

It鈥檚 true he has a moustache, but to my mind he has a noble, rather handsome look.

Then there is a picture of Gojko Raicvic whom I approached because he was draped in a flag and whose interview I found especially interesting as he is a British citizen.

As far as I remember he was clean-shaven and, as far as I can see, has a full set of teeth. The other chap鈥檚 mouth is closed, but there is no reason to think has no teeth.

Beautiful Albanians on the previous posts? Well, it is in the eye of the beholder and I don鈥檛 want to insult the bearded gentleman featured on the 鈥渕osh pit鈥� post but I doubt that he would be a model agency鈥檚 first choice.

Most of the pictures are of crowd scenes but I have to admit there is one of a rather cute little girl. Sorry to be rather long-winded but my point is that Dan believes I and the 大象传媒 are biased and so sees something that is not there. As long as it supports a feeling of unfairness and persecution, the reality does not matter.

Sense of victimhood

Many in the West who deal with Serbia see what I shall call 鈥渢he toothless Serb syndrome鈥� as part of the country鈥檚 problem. A sense of victimhood that ignores the facts.

Many argue that much of this is the fault of Serb politicians: they have not admitted that wrong was done in the past and have not prepared people for the loss of Kosovo.

Some might argue that it鈥檚 a bit like saying that Winston Churchill didn鈥檛 prepare the British people for defeat in World War II.

Still, it鈥檚 hard to see, whatever the moral or legal case, how in practical terms Kosovo will ever be, in practical terms, sovereign Serbian territory, or what diplomatic or other measure politicians would pursue to further this aim. The West assumes, somehow, Serbia will come round.

Part of the reason this will be so hard is not simply because many Serbs see Kosovo as an important part of Serbia, but because the meaning of Kosovo is that of loss.

In the nineteenth century, in many different parts of Europe, people singled out a glorious military victory of the past and hung upon its structure the meaning of their nationalism. But for Serbs it was a battle lost.

The (although several historians claim it was more of a standoff and a more decisive battle had occurred some 30 years earlier) allowed the Serbs to see themselves as beaten but unbowed, victims of betrayal and lack of faith.

This interpretation was strengthened by the and its subsequent loss. It is their Grail.

Crown of thorns

There is a striking use of . Kosovo is a 鈥渁 crown of thorns鈥� or 鈥淪erbia鈥檚 Golgotha鈥�. As Christ suffered for mankind, Serbia suffered for Christian Europe.

Kosovo is a sacred dream, fleetingly possessed only to gather more weight of meaning each time it is lost; feelings of betrayal and sacrifice stressed by nationalist politicians each time it is snatched away again.

Regained in 1912 lost by 1916. Regained again in 1918. Quasi-independent under Tito, re-claimed for the Serbs by Milosevic. Now lost again.

As the old T-shirt slogan goes: 鈥淛ust because you鈥檙e paranoid, doesn鈥檛 mean they鈥檙e not out to get you.鈥� Whatever the national myth of loss, Western governments legal justifications for independence do seem like a slight of hand, and inspire as much confidence as a three-card trick.

When pressed, diplomats argue: 鈥淭he Serbs have forfeited the moral right to rule Kosovo.鈥�

This is the real argument, but one thing about it worries me. Who exactly are the Serbs who have morally forfeited the right to rule Kosovo?

Those involved in the Milosevic government? Those who supported him and his policies? who opposed him?

It is not surprising Serbs feel sore if they are to be ever tarred with the actions of a government that got its come-uppance a decade ago.

'Get over it'

But many of those who deal with Serbia are impatient. While their words would be a lot more erudite they amount to: 鈥淕et over it!鈥�.

One diplomat surprised me with his comparison. He said the Serbian President Boris Tadic is in a similar position to that of the government of the Irish Republic during much of the twentieth century: that Northern Ireland was an intrinsic part of the Republic, was part of the constitution, and to some a holy cause.

But Irish Governments restrained their hand so they didn鈥檛 do anything much practical to further this cause, and very gradually, as the mood changed, finally abandoned the claims.

It鈥檚 not a comparison that would have occurred to me: the minority in the north, the Catholics, had never been in a position of dominating the province with military might and administrative power.

But it鈥檚 striking that a number of top Brits in Kosovo have, accidentally or not, got Northern Irish experience.

The head of as well as being our man in Kiev in the past and having a senior position in the international community in Georgia, was Jim Prior鈥檚 special adviser when . And who will be head of Kosovo customs was head of customs in Northern Ireland at one time.

Of course the Republic gave up its claim without any suggestion it was illegitimate, and only in return for some say over the affairs of Northern Ireland, and a very real change in the treatment of the Catholics there. Some would want Serbia to go very much further.

Carla del Ponte

My colleague, the Economist's Charlemagne, has kindly why Serbia (and other countries) have to comply with the international war crimes tribunal before they can enter the European Union.

The argument goes like this:

The EU was built not just on reconciliation after World War II but specifically on German remorse. If the majority of Serbs do not feel remorse for their country鈥檚 actions in the Balkans War, it would undermine the ethos central to the European Union.

And at the moment, the claims of back-stabbing by politicians and unfair behaviour by victorious powers, and the toothless Serb syndrome itself are more reminiscent of post-World War I Germany, with all that ominously implies.

When I press diplomats about these apparently dismal prospects for Serbia鈥檚 future within the EU, they tend to point out that we are talking about something 20 years in the future.

It is exactly the same thing they say when you talk about the objections to Turkish membership. Which does nothing to suggest how Serbia will come to be a beloved member of the European community.

Perhaps Serbia and Turkey should enter the EU at exactly the same moment. And as a true gesture of reconciliation, a grand ceremony should be held on Kosovo Pole, the site of that battle of 1389.

And whatever pictures are beamed into his home in Toronto, Dan, watching the ceremony on the 大象传媒, will see only the happy and toothy grins of the well-shaven and good-looking Serbs.

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• - What's this?

There鈥檚 a tussle going on between the powers that be at the European parliament and the over allegations of fraud.

As a member of the budgetary committee, Mr Davies asked for .

He refused to sign an agreement not to disclose anything, but was shut in a room and allowed to read the report (on years 2004-2006) while forbidden to copy it or even take notes.

Mr Davies told me that he is in no doubt that the report reveals widespread maladministration and that fraud has taken place.

Third parties

At the moment MEPs get an allowance of 拢130,000 for office staff. It appears that the money is usually paid to a third party, known as a service provider, who then should pay the assistants.

The service provider is usually a firm of accountants or a political party. Mr Davies says that it was obvious from the report that some of the cash was paid to fictional companies.

Other companies may exist but they are not registered in Belgium, as required by law. Some cash was paid to members of MEPs' families. Some was paid to political parties and kept by them rather than used for the proper purpose.

Mr Davies says he has no doubt that some people should go to prison for this and has alerted the EU鈥檚 fraud office. The parliament, however, says no specific individual examples of fraud were found and they don鈥檛 need to send the report .

Furious response

Other MEPs are also furious. I spoke to Labour鈥檚 leader in the parliament, Gary Titley, who told me that people already thought MEPs were crooks, despite all their hard work, and this would make things worse.

He says that the rules have been tightened up somewhat because MEPs now have to show pay slips and the like to back up their spending claims.

He wants a system like the House of Commons where an independent arm of parliament, the Fees Office, pays the money directly to the people employed.

罢丑补迟鈥檚 why for MPs the only way to abuse the system is to 鈥渆mploy鈥� a friend or relative.

How open are our political parties?

Labour MEPs do submit their claims to an independent audit. This is not published but I have seen the letter from the auditors to Mr Titley saying that everything was above board.

Labour is calling for all MEPs to submit to such an audit. But is this good enough? Why not just publish the details of how much they spend and on how many people? Mr Titley told me a lot of people wouldn鈥檛 like others knowing what they earn.

Is this good enough?

Obeying the rules

The Conservatives don鈥檛 have any such system, saying merely that their MEPs are expected to obey parliamentary guidelines. The Lib Dems have no internal guidelines although .

Chris Davies also raises an interesting, but controversial point.

He says that in Northern Europe and Scandinavia much higher standards are expected and what would be seen as dishonest there is just normal practice in the South.

I鈥檓 told one well known Italian MEP was boasting that he and many of his colleagues had set up false companies to channel money back into their own pockets and it was all within the rules. Is it fair to regard the line between olive oil and butter as also the line between honesty and corruption?

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• - What's this?

Gordon Brown is in Brussels today.

As Chancellor, Mr Brown was known for his distinct lack of enthusiasm for coming to meetings here, and a marked tendency to lecture people on how to run their economies when he did.

As Prime Minister, he鈥檚 done little to dispel either perception. But this time he might find himself between a Northern Rock and a hard place: on the receiving end, if not of lectures, of stern looks and careful listening from a woman know as

Mr Brown has been to Brussels as Prime Minister. It was directly after the signing of the Lisbon treaty, .

He hasn鈥檛 made a trip since then. Quite a contrast to Merkel and Sarkozy, who arrived within a day of becoming leaders of their respective countries.

Those with Britain鈥檚 interests at heart point out this is not a matter of respect, or kowtowing to those at the heart of the European Empire, but of Britain punching its weight.

Brown鈥檚 views on the economy are pretty much in line with those of , and the majority of the commissioners.

European protectionism

But there are those, notably President Sarkozy of France, who want a little less free trade and a little more European Patriotism or, as we used to call it, economic protectionism: perhaps taxation and trade barriers to protect European goods, and not even the sort of cross-border competition within the EU that threatens big French firms on their home ground.

One commission official who feels the visit is welcome but very overdue told me that there was a need for Gordon Brown to 鈥減ull on the rope from the other end鈥� and provide vital life support for the commissioners who feel under pressure.

They see Brown speaking up for this economic agenda as 鈥渞eal and important鈥� and they want more of it and hope this is a new beginning.

But those close to President Barroso disagree that Brown has been disengaged in policy terms. He held a meeting with Merkel, Prodi, Sarkozy and Barroso in Downing Street last month and they felt it was pretty useful.

They鈥檙e not rude enough to put it like this but the impression I get is that they feel Brown is a little politically clumsy about the niceties; absent when he should be present, most notably at the signing of the Lisbon treaty; relying on officials who seem to have two modes, neither of them very attractive.

They are seen to either hector and lecture, like Mr Brown in his days at the finance ministers鈥� meetings, or come over all tight-lipped and taciturn, perhaps also faithfully reflecting their master鈥檚 voice.

Fly on the wall

It sounds as if the meetings will be packed.

First, his old chum, . The two men loathe each other so I would love to be a fly on the wall, watching body language rather than listening to their accord that the Doha trade round has to be brought to a successful head.

Then Barroso. There will be some discussion of the role the European Union can play in failing states and world crisis. Brown thinks that the EU can fill a gap providing civilian advice and police backup.

This fits neatly with the view among some top brass in Brussels that while the UN can keep the peace, and Nato can kick ass, the EU can do both and the bits in-between.

Serious money

There will be quite a lot on international development, one of Brown鈥檚 real passions, and where the EU spends serious money.

But top priorities are the environment and the economy. Fine details of the commission鈥檚 plans to give the lead in cutting greenhouse gasses are being nailed, rather painfully, in place and the Prime Minister may have suggestions about a European carbon bank.

But it鈥檚 real banks that give the most concern.

Politicians all over Europe are not surprisingly itchy about the financial turmoil that could spell disaster for their economies and the end of their careers.

All politicians have a tendency to want to do something, come up with a new initiative, at least to show they are not twiddling their thumbs.

The commission and Mr Brown together are bound to come up with some sort of blueprint, or at least a blueprint for a blueprint.

I expect the Prime Minister will back a plan for two new commission studies to examine whether the EU needs to act.

The commission is particular worried about huge movement of capital from the Middle East. It looks as if they are quite a long way off any concrete plans, but this could be the centrepiece of the Spring get-together of Prime Ministers and Presidents in mid-March.

Nickel Neelie

But the most difficult meeting may be over lunch. It鈥檚 with nine commissioners.

Among them, .

She has a reputation for toughness. . She used to be a minister for the most pro free market party in the Netherlands and is apparently known, not as the Iron Lady, but Nickel Neelie.

I write 鈥渁pparently鈥� because I鈥檝e never heard anyone call her that, but it is in all the newspaper cuttings.

Whatever her metallic make-up she has given a provisional thumbs-up to the rescue plan, but Mr Brown has to show her the detailed plan by 17 March, to make sure it doesn鈥檛 fall foul of EU rules which are aimed at stopping state aid giving companies an unfair advantage.

As apparently it鈥檒l cost each of us British taxpayers an average of 拢3,500 there ought to be some advantage in it.

But Mr Brown, so keen on lecturing fellow ministers, might not feel so happy having to explain himself, like an errant student, to a tough Thatcherite bureaucrat, who could decide that his wheeze is illegal.

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• - What's this?

Here in Pristina, you can do the Solana spark-up. All the rage is a lighter with a button to the side: press it and a is beamed on to the nearest available surface.
But can EU foreign policy set the world alight, or rather prevent it bursting into flames?

More specifically is the European Union's position on Kosovo an unholy muddle, testimony to the near impossibility of getting 27 countries to agree anything of substance, or a triumph for those who want EU foreign policy to be big and bold?

Diplomats who want the maximum support possible for an independent Kosovo are very pleased that they got as much agreement as they did at this week's foreign ministers meeting in Brussels. Because of worries that this sets a precedent for their own would-be breakaway minorities, five countries, led by Spain and Cyprus, were very nervous.

Hard nut

The pro-independent diplomats had to ensure that certain practical measures were agreed before independence, to massage the feelings of those countries. It was a tough, long haul, with the usual preparatory meetings failing to reach agreement on the exact words to use. , and at one point it looked as if, as one source put it, they wouldn't sign up to anything that even mentioned the word "Kosovo".

So I can understand their frustration after this hard slog that some are left distinctly unimpressed.

But the words on the paper are a pretty bland confection of fudge. This is the detail of what the 27 foreign ministers agreed: They note the fact that Kosovo has declared independence. They note it's up to individual countries to recognise Kosovo, or not.

They welcome the continued presence of the international community, based on an old UN resolution. They agree to play a leading role in the region, referring specifically to to "mentor" Kosovo's police and judges, and the appointment of an EU special representative.

The Commission is asked to help with political and economic development.

It may have been hard to get even this agreement, but step back a bit. Only months ago the talk was of a "big bang", the US and the EU countries declaring as one that they recognised Kosovo, which would give momentum to the process.

This has not happened. The five opponents of independence within the EU may not quite agree with Serbia and , but presumably their stance means they don't think Kosovo should be independent.

You could argue that this is a pretty pathetic failure to get agreement on a very basic question, and one that sends a signal of muddle and lack of resolution by the EU.

Ultimate power

And yet, and yet... the European Union is here, or at least will be, in force. The 2,000-strong police and justice mission will arrive to keep and eye on police, judges and government: its real mission to stamp down on corruption and make sure the Serbs are protected.

will be the ultimate authority here. Although he would be loathe to be seen as some sort of colonial governor, and would stress that his role is to advise the government, he does have the power to over-rule the elected politicians if they try to depart from the path set out in an agreed plan.

The European Commission will be pumping money in to this place like there is no tomorrow, and paving the way for Kosovo to one day join the European Union. Presumably other members of the EU will have to recognise it by then.

Any of the countries with doubts could have used their veto to stop any of this, if they really do find it offensive, although I suspect they were subjected to quite a lot of Qualified Majority Bullying (or perhaps Bribing) by Britain, France and Germany, not to mention the Commission and the United States.

So this is rather odd. No strong symbolic statement, just practical, big picture action. What is the world coming to if the EU's real impact is stronger than its rhetoric?

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• - What's this?

鈥淲e will not give up Kosovo,鈥� chant the demonstrators. There are children in the front of the march, followed by tough-looking men with shaved heads, training in their wake teenaged girls made-up to the nines and granddads with lined, weary faces.

It seems everyone is on the street in Mitrovica. : on the south side of the bridge the Albanians, this side, the North, the Serbs.

After spending a weekend watching faces in Pristina lit up with joy because of the declaration of independence, this is the other side of the coin. The sense I get is not so much anger as loss.

A song of mournful beauty blasted from the stage declaring 鈥淜osovo we will return鈥�.

Strong and proud

A priest tells the crowd, estimated by police to number around 8,000, that they must remain strong and proud. To loud applause the next speaker declares 鈥淜osovo is Serbian鈥�.

A man with a woolly hat emblazoned with a Serbian eagle, a Serbian flag wrapped around his shoulders, catches my attention. Does he speak English? He does and dives into his wallet and fishes out a British passport.

Gojko Raicvic lives and has come here to support fellow Serbs.

鈥淭he message to my compatriots is to tell the government of Great Britain that what they are doing in supporting the USA is shameful,鈥� he tells me.

鈥淪o the message is that what you are doing at the moment is discrediting the history of Great Britain, the proud British nation which always used to support law and order and justice.鈥�

What鈥檚 happening today, he says, is the law of disorder, the law of injustice.

Why shameful I ask?

鈥淪imply because whoever knows a bit of European history knows that forcing its way towards Vienna and Europe, so we were the victims of history 500 years ago and we are the victims once again.鈥�

Suffocation

The appeal to history is so familiar in the Balkans that it is refreshing to listen to Tanya Ladarevic and hear her day-to-day concerns. She is not going on the march but is worried about the future.

鈥淚 think that international law has been violated as a native of Mitrovica and of Kosovo,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 am very much afraid for my future, my daughter's future and for Serbs who live in enclaves because I don鈥檛 think they can plan their lives to live there. And worst of all, what will happen for sure even if there is no violence, is that there will be administrative suffocation from the new Kosovan institutions.鈥�

She compares the situation to times when Kosovo Albanians were allowed a fair degree of autonomy.

鈥淲hen I was a child there was such a huge and strong administrative suffocation so I expect that it will happen again. And Albanians are pretty skilful in that and this really can be hidden from the international community. You can鈥檛 hide violence but you can hide administrative suffocation.鈥�

What does she mean by that term?

She gives me an example: the current plans quite clearly say that Serbian schools can use text books from Belgrade.

鈥淎t the end of the day, Pristina will use any kind of veto to prevent the import of the books from Belgrade. Here it will use everything prevent it.

鈥淭ake birth certificates. It can take days or months to get papers. If you have to go to court, hospitals or shops you know you just feel everywhere that you are a second class citizen.

鈥淜osovo Albanians for the past eight years haven鈥檛 shown great tolerance. There is no tolerance, it鈥檚 very bad. How would you feel in the your own country, or anywhere, to be treated like a second class citizen?鈥�

On the march

After stopping to hear the speeches, the marchers carried on down the main street .

A thinner line of police than I would have expected stopped them from going any further. I overhear an American man in plain clothes and wrap-around shades with a drawl from the deep South speaking into his mobile.

鈥淚f they start pushing, I鈥檒l tell you to deploy. You won鈥檛 here from me until then.鈥�

Another officer berates his crew pointing at a man doing silly poses for photographers in the middle of the bridge. 鈥淲ho let the nutter through?鈥�

The demonstrators burned an American flag, lit flares and threw firecrackers but the push never came and our Southern friend didn鈥檛 make the crucial call.

Heartfelt dismay

There was no need to unfurl the razor wire or call up the riot squad who waited in vans in the back streets. Serbian dismay is heartfelt but anger has not translated in to either violence or serious political action that would destabilise this new nation.

However, I am hearing reports that three Serbian members of the Kosovo Parliament have resigned because they were not allowed to speak at Sunday鈥檚 meeting that endorsed independence.

In Belgrade, a minister has told a colleague that each ministry has a separate plan for dealing with Kosovo and that the Serbian administration will be developed and more investment will go in to make the economy stronger in Serbian areas. These are early days. The reaction of Serbs who live here will be crucial for Kosovo鈥檚 future.

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Mother Teresa Street in central Pristina has turned into .

The crowd surges one way and then twists back the other and, for a while, you have to give up all hope of independent movement. From time to time people will clear a small circular space for a spot of traditional dancing to the sinuous local pop music, as the crowd flows either side of them.

It's one way of keeping warm in the freezing weather.

It鈥檚 the second night of partying here, although tonight there are are more families and children. Maybe it鈥檚 the fireworks that are pulling in the crowds although I wouldn鈥檛 take my kids near: it鈥檚 pretty but not particularly safe.

People are lighting rockets, with cigarettes, in the middle of the crowd. Bangers litter the streets and you just have to watch your step, and indeed your ears.

As the night goes on the music policy changes and hip-hop blasts out from nearby the high golden letters spelling out (in English) 鈥淣ewborn鈥�.

The crowd is nowhere near so dense here and people are bursting into spontaneous little dances. Of course while it is all rather light-hearted here, not everyone loves the newborn country. In Mitrovica and Belgrade there has been trouble, although buildings, not people, have so far been the targets.

Happiest day

It seems every second person I talk to says it is the happiest day of their life. and they were similarly wild but there wasn鈥檛 the sheer sense of relief and joy.

In Montenegro, the feeling was that they were glad to be shot of a problematic brother, here it's an enemy they are discarding. One local newspaper's front page this morning was a picture of Milosevic, Tito and with the headline underneath a single fruity Anglo-Saxon word followed by YU (punning on you, and Yugoslavia).

A colleague from here says happily 鈥淚 have a state: I am no longer triple X鈥�. That apparently was his designation in a British visa when travelling on a UN-issued passport.

People everywhere are wearing T-shirts proclaiming 鈥淣ow I have a state鈥�. But my friend raises a question. When he gets his new passport, what if he travels to a country like France that will recognise Kosovo and then goes on within , to Spain, that doesn鈥檛? Is he allowed to do that?

While the crowd partied, Kosovo鈥檚 parliament met to sign the declaration and approve some new laws to make it possible.

They have . It's obvious that this is where Kosovo is heading, but is this appropriate stuff for a declaration of independence?

I haven鈥檛 spoken to any Serbs today, so this is necessarily one-sided. But tomorrow demonstrations are planned in various Serbian towns within Kosovo, so I hope to listen to the other point of view then.

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They had waited so long but just couldn鈥檛 wait any longer to celebrate independence. The streets of Pristina have been filled with people cheering and shouting, with cars honking their horns in a continuous cacophony.

They drive round and round draped in flags, young men perched precariously on the roofs jiggling up and down with joy. In the midst of mayhem, an old man closes his eyes and reverentially kisses a scarf emblazoned with the word 鈥淜osovo.鈥� And you can see my TV report here.

Two young women drive, clapping their hands in time with the Turkish-style pop blaring out of the speakers.

A man in full, white Albanian national costume stands stock-still on the top of a car driving along. Cynics might see the gingerly-driven car, an Albanian flag on its bonnet, the stars and stripes totally and utterly obscuring the windscreen, as a metaphor for an uncertain future.

鈥淭he message is clear," says one man wearing a T-shirt bearing a single upright finger and the words 鈥淏ye bye Serbia ".

Another young man is even more succinct. When I ask him what he thinks he replies with three words, one Anglo-Saxon. Only 鈥渙ff鈥� and 鈥淪erbia鈥� are printable.

When I say that I can鈥檛 broadcast that, and can he put it another way, he thinks and puts the word 鈥淪erbia鈥� first, followed by the rest.

The authorities desperately hope there is no in-your-face provocation towards the Serb minority here.

Awash with flags

is awash with flags, determined to party.

This place is never short of flags, but now is ubiquitous. In , some cars have twin miniature flags discreetly flying from their bonnets, others go the whole hog and have a huge flag draped across the boot.

I鈥檓 told that an incredible 80 tonnes of fireworks have been brought in and distributed all over the country. I watch as a team of women spread cream and chocolate on sections of a giant cake that is intended to feed 30,000 people. It took 11,800 eggs. You can鈥檛 make a nation without breaking more than a few eggs, apparently.

About 40 miles from the capital, I come across a group of men determined to put up a banner reading 鈥淐elebrate independence!鈥� across the road, hanging it from a half constructed building, flags flying predictably from every corner.

Even the cement mixer by its side has a large flag attached, and the men argue amiably about the best way to get the banner up as lorries and coaches get entangled in it as they pass.

What does independence mean to them? One man tells me: 鈥淭his day is for all citizens who want to be free. So many people gave their lives and sacrificed so much for this country.鈥�

Four flags

Although the black eagle is everywhere, this Independence Day is a tale of four flags. Cars and buildings also fly and . Kosovo is one of the few places in the world that people will shake you firmly by the hand and thank you for Britain鈥檚 support.

This day may have been along time coming, but the majority Albanian population know that it was the bombing campaign against Serbia that insured that they would and could one day split from that country.

As I get ready to do a piece to camera in , one man comes up to thank my country, and give me a firm handshake.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the most momentous moment for the Albanians here, because we had 500 years of occupation from a really terrible, horrendous occupier,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 been so much bloodshed that now we鈥檙e really happy.鈥�

Formally what happens today is that the Prime Minister calls MPs together and parliament approves a bunch of laws described . And then he will declare independence and the party will begin with classical music and later those fireworks.

There are government notices everywhere, including on the back of free T-shirts, asking people to 鈥渃elebrate with dignity鈥�. And I鈥檝e heard they are also asking everyone to go home shortly after midnight. Informally it might be rather more raucous than that, as joy is unbound.

Day of tragedy

Of course not every one who lives here feels that way. For many Serbs this is a day of tragedy.

In Mitrovica it is just a short walk across a bridge to the Serbian side of town, over-looked by French snipers and Nigerian UN soldiers. Here, of course, there is no bunting, nothing hanging from cars.

Under a rather tattered Serbian flag there is some building work going on. I ask a man shovelling bricks into a wheelbarrow what independence will mean for him. He frantically shovels more bricks and says that he will stay and work, work hard.

As for independence, he says, it鈥檚 like him coming to my house and saying that it is his. A teenaged boy interjects: 鈥淲e may celebrate: with guns鈥�.

I ask him what he means. He says that if the Albanians try to bring their celebration across the bridge, to taunt them, they will be ready to defend themselves. But I think the Serbian mood is as much sorrow as anger.

Today is a big day, an emotional day. But how much difference will independence make? Kosovo will declare independence today, but in a sense that is independence from the United Nations, because in reality it has not been ruled from Belgrade for nine years.

While Serbs may regard it as legally part of their country, for nine years there have been borders, and checks on documents between Serbia and Kosovo.

Equally in the north of Mitrovica, and other parts of Kosovo where Serbs live, they use their own currency and under the plan they will have a great deal of autonomy. Of course this does beg the question why they can鈥檛 choose to be part of Serbia if ethnic Albanians have the right to live in a new country.

EU flag

I wrote that this was a tale of four flags. The fourth flag is , which again you see hanging from every third building. Indeed I鈥檓 told Kosovo鈥檚 official flag will probably be pretty much like the EU flag with a map of the country inside the golden stars.

Some might think that rather justly symbolic: Kosovo will have a sort of independence but within parameters set down .

Diplomats are very keen to stress that today does not see the United Nations hand over to the European Union. Whereas , the EU will just be there to keep an eye on things. But the EU can, in the end, tell the government what to do and what not to do in certain areas.

One senior EU source puts it like this: 鈥淲e have a big stick. But that big stick is locked in a safe in the cellar. And it would take a lot to make us get the keys out and go downstairs. But we can do it.鈥�

One of the most important people around here is who is at the moment in charge of planning the EU police mission, the biggest task the European Union has ever undertaken.

EU protectorate

I ask him if the arrangement doesn鈥檛 make Kosovo an EU protectorate, or even colony.

鈥淚t鈥檚 been a protectorate up until now but the responsibility is theirs now,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey are the new government, it鈥檚 for them to deliver results. Whatever we鈥檙e here to do, it鈥檚 not to leap in and take decisions on their behalf, but to work with them to make it clear that they are the ones in charge.鈥�

It is more than simply ironic that, with the EU taking on such a big burden, it cannot get its act together. At tomorrow鈥檚 foreign ministers meeting there will be a smooth papering over the cracks, and then about 20 countries will recognise Kosovo.

That would leave seven not really on board for what some might see as the EU鈥檚 biggest project to date. But for the time being, that is not what is most important.

The next 24 hours will bring reaction from all around the world. But what happens here, on the ground, is what is vital. Let鈥檚 hope the only fireworks are part of the celebratory display.

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I鈥檓 told Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have discussed the possibility of
罢丑补迟鈥檚 , the new top European job created by the Lisbon Treaty.

Some want to find a high profile president to represent the European Union on the world stage at events such as the G8, the Bali summit and for meeting heads of state.

Gordon Brown is willing to give his backing but is waiting for a nod from Mr Blair.

Mr Blair has also recently discussed his job prospects with
Every time the job comes up, so do the same old names. The problem is obvious: few European politicians have the charisma and international recognition to carry off being Mr or Mrs Europe.

Certainly, the other main man in the frame, , doesn鈥檛 really fit the bill.

But feels that Mr Blair needs to get a move on if he is to clinch the job, which needs the support, or at least the acquiescence, of the leaders of all 27 European Union countries.

The role of president of the Council would start on 1 January 2009.

French backing

Mr Blair already has the firm backing of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his team says that there is no campaign and no campaign team.

The truth is Mr Blair is interested, but cautious. He only wants the job on his terms if the president is really going to be a strong presence on the world stage.

He wants to be sure that he is the one who shakes the hand of the new president of the United States, and doesn鈥檛 have the new high representative or the president of the European Commission jostling to do it themselves.

Downing Street insiders feel Mr Blair needs to make up his mind quite quickly so they can start throwing their weight behind his campaign.

You might question whether Gordon Brown would really welcome Tony Blair as a prince across the water, but the impression I get is that, if Mr Blair wants it, they would have to support him,.

No hurry

Mr Blair feels that while it鈥檚 flattering to be considered, there is no hurry: indeed it鈥檚 too early in the process to make a decision. He wants to wait and see how the job is fleshed out as meat is put on the bones of the Lisbon Treaty.

The trouble is that nothing of importance will be decided until after the Irish referendum, on a date yet to be announced, for fear of frightening the voters with potentially controversial decisions.

How much urgency is there? would like all this settled at the beginning of the French presidency, in July.

Most regard this as unrealistic, and think that the decision will be taken around the time of the October summit.

But Europe鈥檚 leaders and their representatives in Brussels are staring hard at the old problem of the chicken and the egg.

Do you choose the person you want for the job, and then write the job specification to fit them or do you decide what you want the role to be, and then look for the best candidate?

The person will of course represent the European Union, and they will of course have to do the work that the presidency of the Council does now: arranging agendas, chasing decisions, knocking heads together.

It is a sliding scale. But too much of the latter and Mr Blair won鈥檛 want it.

'Stop Blair' campaign

And there are formidable problems. Some will oppose him because of his enthusiasm for the Iraq war. Indeed .

Some will consider that he represents a country that has opted out of the euro, a common police and justice policy, a common immigration policy and will never be serious about Europe.

The smaller countries think the big countries already have too many people at the top.

Britain has twice wielded the veto over big jobs and some would like to return the compliment. And so on. But perhaps the biggest hurdle is that old Brussels saw 鈥渇ront-runners never win鈥�.

The smart money of some Brussels insiders is now going on

She faces an election next year and could lose. Her party might rather go into elections with a new leader. She is the one figure from a big country that smaller countries perhaps wouldn鈥檛 mind.

Brought up in East Germany, she symbolises the reunification of Europe. She may not gush charisma but she is well respected and well known in the wider world.

And I have just heard of one other possible candidate, Barroso himself. There鈥檚 just a possibility he might give up being President of the Commission if he thought being President of the Council was the bigger, better job and within his grasp.

So a lot to play for between now and the autumn.

Given that 鈥渇ront-runners never win鈥�, Blair is being canny in keeping his head down as much as possible.

But he also knows that even if the decision isn鈥檛 taken until the autumn, nine months is an awfully short time in international politics.

UPDATE:
Several of you ask what I have against Luxembourg's long-serving Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker. Absolutely nothing, but I probably didn't make myself clear enough.

I meant that if the job is intended to be a high profile, high impact actor on the world stage then he's probably not the best candidate.

He's a fixer, negotiator, and knows the work of the Council like the back of his hand. If the job tipped more towards organising the work of the meetings of the nation states rather than representing the EU then he would be an obvious choice, and for many who favour more intergration he is the obvious choice.

I can't agree with any of those of you who say what the job will or will not be. This certainly hasn't been decided yet: the Lisbon treaty is pretty vague stating only that the president will "drive" the work of the Council, "encourage cohesion and consensus" and represent the EU in the area of foreign affairs.

Diplomats are quite explicit: they won't do any of the detail until after the Irish referendum, and possibly not until every country has ratified. They haven't even talked about this in any official meeting. And discussion about what size of staff, and indeed residency, the new president might need amount to little more than corridor gossip.

And yes to come through the middle.

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You could hardly choose a more dignified, grand place for an important political event.

I suppose France鈥檚 politicians could hardly have chosen a more appropriate one either to ignore the hoi polloi protesting outside.

The French politicians from so they could go ahead with the adoption of the Treaty of Lisbon. And you can see my TV report here.

By the weekend, the Senate, the National Assembly and the President himself will all have wielded the rubber stamp. Indeed, at Versailles they bring in a real, live, giant stamp to endorse the document.

No plan B

President Sarkozy had made no bones about it, and repeatedly made it clear in his election campaign that if he was president there would be no second referendum. Few politicians are open enough to say 鈥渨e just can鈥檛 take the risk鈥�, but I thought was pretty direct:

鈥� that gave the European adventure a constitutional look. That was the choice of the French people, and it had to be respected. But we cannot ignore the fact that in doing so we threw Europe, Europe that had hope in us, into surprise and confusion.

鈥淭here was no Plan B, so the European Union was paralysed and the finger was pointed at us. When we voted 鈥楴o鈥� to the 2005 text, we inherited a double responsibility - for ourselves and for Europe - that of giving it back the momentum and spirit that we took away.鈥�

Surge of protesters

About 200 metres away from the building itself, a line of police confronts anti globalisation protesters chanting 鈥渨e want a referendum鈥�. Some surge forward and it looks as if things are going to turn nasty. One protester tries to make it over the fences in front of their vehicles and is dragged to the ground.

This is an anti globalisation protest against the treaty and these are seasoned campaigners, with many grey beards and bright, knitted jumpers among the youthful piercings and dreadlocks.

One of the organisers, Susan George, tells me they should have the right to vote on this in a referendum. 鈥淭here鈥檚 only cosmetic changes in this text,鈥� she says. 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 what everyone in officialdom says. So we believe that we are being spat upon. They know we would vote 鈥楴o鈥� again.鈥�

I asked what she didn鈥檛 like about the treaty. She doesn鈥檛 think a constitution should contain details of economic proposals and says the only other document like this was the constitution of the Soviet Union.

鈥淭his treaty submits us to ,鈥� she says, 鈥渨hich will always be headed by an American, and it says it is the basis of our defence. It makes us agree to increase our arms capacity: I don鈥檛 agree with that. It downgrades public services. It is only interested in the rights of trans-national corporations.鈥�

By the time I leave, what seemed like a potential riot earlier in the afternoon has turned into more of a free festival: men and women, dressed in French Revolutionary red-felt bonnets, waltz gently to the sound of an accordion. I feel these class warriors would be rather surprised if the state did pause to heed their views.

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Thanks for all your comments on the Balkan pieces. I am not going to get embroiled in the central argument at the moment but wanted to reply to a couple of side issues raised.

鈥淗ow would you like to own an owl?鈥� is the question asked of the bounty hunter cop in the novel on which 鈥淏lade Runner鈥� is based.

He's being bribed to give up his mission. He lives in a society where all animals are rare, owning them confers both status and a sense of self worth. Now that鈥檚 what I call an inducement to abandon professional ethics.

So for my money, as it were, doesn鈥檛 even come close. But it does make me groan because it makes postings like Brian Whittle鈥檚 inevitable.

Most of the money is from , which, I take it, means mainly .

There is also some money from the EU itself to fund the 大象传媒鈥檚 web-based numeracy and literacy campaign .

Flying pigs

I take it Mr Whittle鈥檚 prose style is a sophisticated dig at this dastardly European attempt to undermine every Englishman鈥檚 right to punctuate as wildly as he chooses.

He writes: 鈥淒o pigs fly Mark how much do you get for your Pro comment... get some one who stays in the middle.鈥�

Just for your complete assurance: No, I don鈥檛 get any money from the EU personally, I hadn鈥檛 got a clue the 大象传媒 got any such money and it wouldn鈥檛 have made an iota of difference if I had. The middle, or even triangulated above it, is where I try to be.

I know I shouldn鈥檛 get riled, but I do. I can鈥檛 for the life of me see what 鈥淧ro comment鈥� there was in Joe the Digger unless it was his desire to face towards Europe rather than Russia, which is his opinion, rather than mine.

My response to all such complaints has to be: point out what you are specifically unhappy about and I will explain or justify and indeed, if necessary, apologise.

Early day motion

, has put down an early day motion, what amounts to a House of Commons petition, on the same subject of the EU funding.

He does have a specific complaint, about the lack of 大象传媒 coverage of .

I may be wrong, but I can鈥檛 find any newspaper coverage at the time either.

I think most journalists would like the money that pays for us to do our job to descend untarnished from heaven. Any form of funding, whether it is from a government, advertising or a rich proprietor carries with it a potential risk.

As far as broadcasting is concerned, I think the risk is thankfully an unrealised potential. I worked in commercial radio for a long time. Never once did I hear of an advertiser trying to interfere with news coverage.

Equally at the 大象传媒, when my betters have been grappling with the Government over the license fee, no one ever says 鈥減ull your punches, for a few months鈥� and, more importantly, the Westminster team has always been as tenacious and questioning as ever at such times.

But if anyone wants to put large sums of money into my bank account, to show that I am not suborned by their cash, I would think it was an experiment worth trying.

Head of steam

But I can feel a head of steam gathering behind another question of coverage. Those opposed to the Lisbon Treaty are asking why there is so little in the media about the Commons Debate.

JorgeG and Max Sceptic strike a somewhat uncomfortable chord suggesting I should be perhaps reporting on 鈥渃ore EU鈥� and the debate on the Lisbon treaty rather than having been in the Balkans.

It's true, I spend much of my time agonizing whether I am in the wrong place.

鈥淐ore EU鈥� first. While these last few blogs were published I was back in Brussels doing reports on the and Commission consumer policy.

And I would argue : the police and justice mission are the biggest the EU has ever undertaken, and it is the biggest issue on the plate in Brussels right now.

It's one of the bees in my bonnet that many people underestimate the scale of the EU鈥檚 foreign policy role and ambition. for good or ill.

Now Lisbon. I could duck the responsibility and say it's up to my colleagues at Westminster to judge if it鈥檚 a story.

Failing the test

But the fact is I鈥檒l holler if I think something has been unjustly ignored and I haven鈥檛 been raising my voice.

I well understand the growing frustration among those opposed to the treaty that the Commons debate hasn鈥檛 turned into a big news story, with even those newspapers with a clear agenda pretty much relegating it inside and down the bottom.

Why is this? In some ways, while the debate passes the current affairs test with flying colours (it's important and you should know about it), it fails some basic news tests.

It's not that new: many of the arguments were aired throughout 2007. It hasn鈥檛 been bloody or brilliant.

The Government (almost certainly) isn鈥檛 going to be defeated and doesn鈥檛 face a major rebellion. This is not an excuse: I am trying to explain it as much to myself as anyone else.

Anyway, I am off to Paris to see how : on Monday they are changing the constitution so they can avoid a referendum.

We also have the Irish referendum to come. Who knows I might even make it back to my old stomping ground, Westminster, before the commons debate concludes.

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