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Conservative blames Eta for attack

• Mark Mardell
• 7 Mar 08, 04:11 PM

Police in balaclava masks stand by the red and white tape that cordons off the crime scene, a very ordinary looking series of flats, divided by low hedges. It was here that a in the neck, and he later died in hospital.

The conservative leader Mariano Rajoy has been quick to blame Eta. He said: "Everybody knows what I think: those who are guilty of this crime are the terrorists, the Eta murderers, and the only option is the defeat of Eta through the law, through the instruments of the rule of law, with the state security forces and bodies and the incorruptible will of the 45 million Spaniards who make up this great nation, which is called Spain."

It is a fair bet that Eta is to blame for this murder, and the police certainly think that they were responsible but they haven鈥檛 yet made a statement.

Rajoy鈥檚 alacrity is perhaps surprising seeing that most people think his insistence on blaming Basque terrorists for the Madrid train bombings lost him the last election.

Campaigning has been suspended and Zapatero and Rajoy will meet in parliament later tonight. Basque terrorism has been a big issue in the election with the opposition accusing the government of being too soft. But in all such cases politicians tread a very fine line between saying what they really think and being accused of exploiting terrible events for political gain.

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Why Spain's opposition leader has an imaginary friend

• Mark Mardell
• 7 Mar 08, 02:27 PM

The conservative challenger, , looked happy and relaxed, clutching a microphone, dressed in a brown jacket and open-necked blue shirt, surrounded by pretty teenage girls.

He told the crowd a secret: when he made his speeches and his policy, he had in his head an imaginary friend, a little girl, Victoria Esperanza: Victory Hope.

Like a crooner, he holds the mic out to his female chorus who echo 鈥淰ictoria, Victoria, Victoria鈥�. Cheesy, I suppose, but I thought pretty effective. The crowd, of course, loved it.

I wasn鈥檛 there but , the town built by Spain鈥檚 eighteenth century royal family as a summer retreat.

The old livery stables now house a poly and a cultural centre and I went there to see a small socialist rally. , and they are determined not to lose it.

Turn-out

Most reckon they will win if they can motivate the voters to go to the polls on Sunday, but a low turn-out could see victory for the conservative People鈥檚 Party.

This small town rally began with a film of three famous singers belting out a tune in support of Zapatero: the hook-line - 鈥渄on鈥檛 let joy be overtaken by disaster鈥�.

At the end, they make the sign for Zapatero: a crooked finger over the eye, mimicking the man鈥檚 right-angled eyebrows. There鈥檚 no doubt, as I reported here earlier and will in my piece on the Ten O鈥機lock News tonight, that the economy is the background to the election, and the main concern of many people.

Two Spains

But here, among the activists, nearly all the people I talk to suggest that what they are campaigning for is the continuation of a socially liberal project: , the fight against domestic violence (something mentioned a lot by both Zapatero and his supporters) and the legalization of abortion.

They say a conservative victory would turn the clocks back.

One of the main speakers, the town鈥檚 mayor, says that the conservatives have changed: when Spain was coming out of the dictatorship, all parties wanted to work together, but now the PP are negative.

He says they see democracy as a tax they have to pay, but believe power rightfully belongs to them.

Subtly, and not so subtly, the socialists are trying to brush the opposition with . It is an obvious electoral ploy, designed to motivate not just the left but those who like the liberal, relaxed, new Spain.

It鈥檚 not just socialist supporters but objective analysists who tell me that Rajoy has moved to the right; allied himself more closely with the conservatives in the Catholic church, and cut out more moderate conservatives .

There is a feeling here that the sharp conflict between that led to the civil war and survived throughout the dictatorship is re-emerging.

Of course, one can overstate this. And in one sense it is entirely natural that, in the effort to become a democratic country, differences had to be rather unnaturally submerged. Now the normal tensions between two visions of society are out in the open again.

'Man of moderation'

But Spain鈥檚 equivalent of the , tells me that this is simply not true. He says to associate them with the dictatorship 鈥渋s so untrue its simply vile. We probably have more sons, grandsons and granddaughters of democrats that the other side鈥�.

But what about the suggestion that Rajoy has taken the party to the right?

鈥淚 have worked with him for many years and he is a man of great moderation,鈥� he says.

鈥淲e are probably more to the centre than the British Conservatives. The campaign is nasty, not because of the people involved, but because the issues are grave.鈥�

He says the main issue is the economy. When I speak to him (by 鈥榩hone), he鈥檚 campaigning in his .

He says a 65-year-old woman has just told him that the macroeconomics may be all right but she can鈥檛 buy bread with macro economics.

Mr de Aristegui says his private calculations show they will win at least 162 seats: enough for 鈥淰ictoria鈥�, although this may be more 鈥淓speranza鈥� than hard maths. However, he says there is a hidden conservative vote.

We will see on Sunday. Saturday is a day for reflection, not campaigning, and there is a news blackout we have to respect on this site until eight o'clock British time, but more after the polls close.

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