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Georgia peace mission

Mark Mardell | 07:55 UK time, Wednesday, 8 October 2008

A Russian soldier, who looks about 14, shoulders not his rifle but a road sign and puts it back in place by the checkpoint, where a comrade carrying a sub-machine gun waves cars and the occasional horse and cart past.Russian checkpoint

The red-white-blue of the Russian flag still flutters over this encampment and two tanks still point their guns at the roadside. But the Russians are packing their bags, even though they won the war. It was a , but Europe's first war of the 21st Century has already had global repercussions. Metal barriers are being packed into lorries, floodlights are coming down. Tanks will soon be on the move.

This checkpoint is the last one along the road into South Ossetia. In August there was one every 50 yards or so. The Russians have until Friday to meet the terms of the ceasefire negotiated by French President Nicholas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union and withdraw troops back to their original positions before the war began. Russian soldier/car at checkpoint

The EU is pretty pleased with itself that it has stepped in to stop a fight on its doorstep, and happy that it has been able to swiftly deploy around to check that the Russians are keeping their word.

There's little doubt in my mind that so far the EU countries have been able to stick together and make their case. When it was clear the Russians weren't meeting the terms of the ceasefire Sarkozy, armed with a threat to call off talks on a new trade deal with Russia, flew to Moscow and got them to accept the monitors and the deadline. Others have been pleased to see the EU extend its foreign policy in this way. The United States and Nato were seen as parties to the dispute, so they could hardly have acted as honest brokers.

The Russians can block and influence missions by the United Nations and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). So it was perhaps natural that the EU should be the West's instrument of choice. There is no doubt for this sometimes ponderous organisation that the monitoring mission has been organised at the double. But should the EU be pleased with itself? Many think Sarkozy's peace deal is deeply flawed and the monitors powerless. EU monitors in Georgia

I catch up with some of the British monitors in their white four-wheel drive. They've borrowed them from the OSCE: their own vehicles are still at customs. The monitors are half-civilian, half-police, and strictly unarmed. Most of them have a military background, but it is quite clear their job is to watch and report back, not to enforce the peace deal. If the Russians fail to meet the terms of the agreement that will be up to their political masters, the EU's 27 foreign ministers, to make that declaration and decide what to do.

The British monitors and their Swedish companions in the vehicle behind are going to have a tricky task. Everybody knows that the Russians, having recognised the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, are not going to leave what they regard as new countries. The EU foreign ministers may choose to decry this, or they may fudge the issue, but at least everyone knows what the reality is.

But the case of Akhalgori is much more difficult. This area, with about 26 ethnically Georgian villages within it, wasn't part of the old South Ossetia. But some diplomats fear that the Russians won't remove this checkpoint and the Russians will in effect grab the land.

The attitude of many I speak to is that the Sarkozy-brokered deal is imperfect, but the best that's on offer. Those of a generous nature think it was the best deal he could get, those of a sourer disposition think that he was suckered by the Russians and simply gave them diplomatic cover for a ceasefire that gave them everything they wanted. The Russians of course will say they were defending South Ossetians and the Georgians were the aggressors.

It's the same story with the monitors. One enthusiast tells me that these men and women are more powerful than if they were armed with guns: Russia fears being embarrassed in the eyes of the world and the verdict of at least the West hangs on their reports. Others see them as mere bystanders, bearing powerless witness to whatever the Russians choose to do. We will see over the next few days.

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