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The blogosphere is alive with analysis suggesting that .

Others argue the whole picture is .

It's true John McCain won after she backed him against a Tea Party supporter.

It's true that in her home state of Alaska, it seems her support has helped propel activist to victory over the sitting senator.

And it's true the other three candidates she endorsed have won.

But beware. This might seem a little hypocritical ahead of spilling my own ink on the subject.

But it is wise to be a little wary when looking for patterns and trends in elections.

Sometimes there are trends of great importance. Sometimes they have as little predictive power as a pattern in a flight of birds or a chicken's guts.

But let's assume Mrs Palin wields a power in the party - that her folksy energy sways the base.

Is that good news for Republicans?

When even moderates like McCain feel the need to make right-wing noises there is little doubt the party is heading further in that direction.

It's long been a dilemma for political leaders that what is red meat for their party can be unpalatable fare for the centre ground. They have to woo to win elections.

This is less so for parties of the right - tough lines on immigration, law and order and defence can be very popular.

But on the whole, the voters in the centre don't like the shrill and vicious.

A point made by a Colorado mayor, who takes a shower in .

In the last presidential elections, voters seemed in a mood to reject extremism of any sort and the low politics that wants to force divisions rather than find common ground.

I was struck this week by my meeting with an important player in the Bush administration, whom I have never before met.

Our conversation ranged wide, and he surprised me for someone I have always thought of as a rather hard-line right-winger.

He told me the moment he decided he didn't want Mr McCain to win was when Sarah Palin was chosen as a running mate.

"I'm a Republican, but I am not a mad Republican," he said.

So the Palin bounce may catapult some Republicans out of the arena.

That is not to say that statement is any sort of prediction about the November elections.

On a New Year's Day ´óÏó´«Ã½ programme, when we try to peer into the future, I suggested the Democrats wouldn't lose the House if they pulled their finger out and started to rethink their strategy.

Like Keynes when the facts change, I change my mind.

The Democrats have not mounted an effective fight-back and their .

What interests me then is how Obama plays it.

He can hardly adopt the Clinton approach and try for a bipartisan approach.

It is unlikely a Republican Party dominated by its own right wing would be interested in playing ball.

All the signs are in his recent speeches - he plans to cast them as Washington insiders playing as the government, who are standing in the way of an economic recovery.

So the stage will be set for 2012, along with a real test of the limits of Palin power.

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