´óÏó´«Ã½

Just two years since widespread jubilation was seen at the election of President Barack Obama, the political direction of the US is once again in the balance. For a while, the winner-takes-all presidential election and the acceptance of the Democratic outcome disguised the deep divisions in the country. But America's version of the permanent revolution - the permanent election - makes sure those divisions may soon be to the fore again. Two very different visions of society are slugging it out.

This campaign may be one of the most venomous for a while, and it certainly is the most expensive mid-term election ever, with candidates for the House of Representatives and Senate spending just short of $2bn (£1.2bn). At least someone's got money in this country.

There is, of course, venom on both sides. But the Tea Party movement, which is perhaps the most important factor in this whole election, has made the rhetoric harsher - the ideological divide starker. Its members' mainstream conservative beliefs in smaller government and lower taxation are held with an angry passion that leads them to drive less fiscally pure Republicans out of the party. At times, these beliefs also drive Republicans to portray the mildly social-democratic president as being a communist and his whole agenda as being somehow anti-American.

In the UK, you are not allowed to campaign on election day, and TV stations are restricted to bland pictures of party leaders voting and blander commentary about the weather. But as voters go to the polls today, they will be able to hear interviews Mr Obama has pre-recorded with friendly radio stations. The recordings will likely say that while Mr Obama is not on the ballot this election, voting is still important for the future of the country, jobs, the economy and education. He's right.

The myriad of individual elections are going to be seen as a referendum on his first two years in office. The 37 governorships, 37 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representative are important in themselves, of course - some more than others. But many votes cast will be a verdict on Obama.

With high unemployment and a lacklustre recovery, all the opinion polls suggest Republicans will take control of the House and have a chance of taking the Senate, as well. In other words, the result of the referendum on Obama will almost certainly be "no". But what was the question?

Was it "has he done enough" or "should he be president"? Or was it perhaps "has he improved your life" or "should he abandon his policies"?

It's hard to say. But if the opinion polls are right, it may be that we have already seen the extent of what Mr Obama can do in office.

If conservatives dominate the House, it will very difficult for him to turn any significant promises into law. But as politicians always tell us, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. So watch this space.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?