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What does the future hold for Petraeus?

Mark Mardell | 15:31 UK time, Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Gen David Petraeus

If you were lucky enough to see early editions of the Times of London and , you might have thought that Gen David Petraeus was about to quit his job as head of US and coalition forces in Afghanistan. This would be big.

After all, Gen Petraeus has only been in the job a matter of months, an emergency appointment after the dismissal of Gen Stanley McChrystal over his over-frank interview in Rolling Stone.

Most observers think he has got his way about the timeline for US troop withdrawal, pushing President Barack Obama to stress 2014 more than this summer, but nothing is fixed yet.

His previous job was head of US Central Command, technically a more senior job.

But there's no doubt that Gen Petraeus is, in authority if not rank, America's top soldier. He's certainly the best known serving officer.

But the big news quickly shrank in later editions of the papers, after Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell issued a strong statement, saying Gen Petraeus would eventually leave his command of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) but there were no firm plans yet:

"Despite some sensational speculation by one of the London papers, I can assure you Gen Petraeus is not quitting as Isaf commander, but nor does he plan to stay in Afghanistan forever."

But then came what we call a non-denial denial.

"Obviously he will rotate out at some point, but that point has not yet been determined and it will not occur any time soon. Until then, he will continue to ably lead our coalition forces in Afghanistan."

This clearly leaves the way open for him to leave the job by the end of the year.

What might he do then? Presumably the only way is up - he won't leave for something humdrum.

One possibility is to replace Adm Mike Mullen, who is chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff.

If I remember rightly from Bob Woodward's book Obama's Wars, the president sees Gen Petraeus as a very political figure not above some political mischief-making.

So it would be a bold move for Barack Obama to make him defence secretary, but a potentially smart one.

The imminent departure of Robert Gates as defence secretary is a really big headache for the president. It is hard to find someone who has as much clout with the military and the political right (which is why Hillary Clinton was always a stupid answer to this difficult question).

Gen Petraeus, as last night's flurry shows, creates headlines and matters beyond these shores.

Could he run as Republican presidential candidate? Many would find that attractive.

But he has repeatedly and forcefully ruled that out, declaring in March: "I thought I've said 'no' as many ways as I could. I will not ever run for political office, I can assure you of that."

This raises an interesting question: do you run for vice-president or are you picked for it?

If I was any of the Republican presidential contenders, I could think of worse choices.

Or maybe he'll just write a book. Anyway, he's a man to watch.

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