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If nothing else, the Ozcar affair has been one of the most metaphoric scandals I've yet to cover. Since a battered old "ute" (a utility vehicle) is at the heart of the controversy, there's been no end to the motoring figures of speech.

Political attacks have "backfired"; politicians have been "caught in the headlights"; the Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull has shown that he still needs "learner plates". You get the idea.

Now a swathe of bad polls for the Liberal leader have fuelled speculation that Mr Turnbull might be road kill. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that his disapproval rating has soared to 60%. The Australian reports that his personal approval ratings have seen the biggest drop in support in Newspoll's 25-year history - from 44% to 25% in the last fortnight. There's talk that senior Liberal figures could move to oust him within days or weeks (presumably, they would invite him to sit in the ejector seat), although others are urging calm (he should remain the designated driver).

Curiously, one government frontbencher compared Mr Turnbull to Mark Latham, the former Labor leader who so spectacularly self-destructed (or drove off a cliff).

Certainly, Malcolm Turnbull made two major blunders in his handling of the affair: basing his attack on an email that was concocted; and targeting Kevin Rudd at a time when the Treasurer, Wayne Swann, was much more vulnerable (to help understand why read the exchange below). They have reinforced the impression that the Liberal leader lacks judgment and is in far too much of a hurry. (There's a good piece about Paul Keating's thoughts on the matter).

Turnbull, who is by far the richest man in parliament, has always been easy depict as an out-of-touch snob from the affluent Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, with an over-active sense of his personal entitlement and personal destiny. This has always been a problem for him in the modern-day Liberal Party, since the Howard years were so emphatically anti-elitist.

But my own hunch is that Mr Turnbull will probably survive, for lack of plausible alternatives. Of course, had this all happened two weeks ago, while Peter Costello's intentions were still unclear, it might have been a different story. But there are a number of Liberals who seem to have been impressed that Turnbull kept on fighting last week, even when all seemed lost. When others might have wilted, he proved himself to be an Aussie battler - and the Liberals have always loved a battler.

Tony Abbot, a Howard diehard, has been out defending his beleaguered leader this morning, and has been touting precisely that line. "Just as Malcolm didn't flinch last week it's important that the party doesn't flinch this week," said Abbott, another product of the Eastern Suburbs and former Rhodes scholar.

So I wonder if the Ozcar affair has produced something of a political paradox: that Malcolm Turnbull has turned off a lot of voters for the time being, but endeared himself to elements within his party by showing that he can battle and that he is therefore more like them.

Still, reading the polls this morning he surely must have thought that his hopes of one day being ferried around in the Prime Ministerial white Holden had taken a detour up a dead-end.

PS: Here's the transcription of an interview between the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, and the ABC reporter, Emma Griffiths on ABC's AM programmes from Thursday 25 June. The allegation, remember, is that the Treasurer gave special treatment to a Brisbane car dealer, John Grant, who gave Kevin Rudd the use of a "ute". Mr Swan has claimed that he treated other car dealers the same...

EMMA GRIFFITHS: How many other dealers did you speak to directly on the phone? Even if it is just for two minutes, how many other dealers?
WAYNE SWAN: Well it's a matter of public record that I spoke to Mr Grant.
EMMA GRIFFITHS: How many other dealers?
WAYNE SWAN: Well it's a matter of public record that I spoke to Mr Grant and I spoke to many other people and many other...
EMMA GRIFFITHS: Put it on the public record who else you spoke to. What other car dealers?
WAYNE SWAN: Well I have put it on the public record that I spoke to Mr Grant, Emma, but that is simply irrelevant...
EMMA GRIFFITHS: But you're not answering the question Mr Swan.
WAYNE SWAN: Well it's not exactly the right question.

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