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One issue, two reports, two different conclusions.

In short, a recipe for confusion - at least, on the surface.

Last week the , the London-based think-tank, suggesting that fears of mass migration caused by climate change were misplaced.

A few days later, with a release recommending that:

"Governments in Asia and the Pacific need to prepare for a large increase in climate-induced migration in the coming years..."

At face value, then, the starkest of contradictions: and an important one, because if millions of people (perhaps a billion, according to [pdf link]) are forced away from their homes, that's a huge issue for governments and international agencies to deal with.

If they're not, the money and resources that might have been mis-directed at this issue can be re-directed at others.

So why the confused picture? Is it really a confusion of conclusions - or of terminologies?

IIED has surveyed people's responses to threats such as drought in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania. Lead author Cecilia Tacoli summed up the conclusions like this:

"People affected by environmental degradation rarely moved across borders. Instead they moved to other rural areas or to local towns, often temporarily."

With the exception of people living in small island developing states threatened by sea level rise, IIED says fears of mass movements across national borders have been exaggerated.

But here's the ADB's early conclusion:

"In the past year alone, extreme weather in Malaysia, Pakistan, the People's Republic of China, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka has caused temporary or longer term dislocation of millions.

"This process is set to accelerate in coming decades as climate change leads to more extreme weather."

So when the ADB talks about migration, it doesn't mean across borders - it means within countries, and often short-term - precisely what IIED cites as the typical response.

The emotive one billion figure from Christian Aid also needs setting in context.

What it actually says is:

"We estimate that over the years between now and 2050, a total of one billion people will be displaced from their homes."

But 645 million of these would be displaced not by climate impacts, but by development projects such as dams and mines - the number comes simply through extrapolating the current rate, calculated at 15 million people per year.

The IIED argues that developing country capitals should prepare for a population increase

So the figure relating to climate impacts is actually in the 250 million ballpark.

And that's spread over a period of 43 years - and the report doesn't specify that these migrants would travel internationally.

The IIED's main thrust ( back in 2009) is that migration shouldn't be seen as a problem, but as a natural adaptation and an opportunity:

"Policymakers must radically alter their views of migration, and see it as a vital adaptation to climate change rather than as an unwanted consequence or a failure to adapt.

"This means that poorer nations need to prepare for climate change at home by building up infrastructure and basic services in small towns located in rural areas that could become destination hubs for local migrants.

"Options include policies that promote access to non-farm jobs in small rural towns and a more decentralised distribution of economic opportunities"

And in the ADB's report, which at one stage looked like a direct contradiction, what's this we find?

"On the positive side, the report says that if properly managed, climate-induced migration could actually facilitate human adaptation, creating new opportunities for dislocated populations in less vulnerable environments."

So delve beneath the headlines, and the confusion disappears.

In many cases, effective climate adaptation will entail asking the question of whether it's better to help communities remain in situ, providing better facilities to help them survive floods, store water, keep animals, or whatever the issue may be - or whether the traditional lands are likely to become uninhabitable, in which case assisted migration might be considered a better option.

But the question will best answered locally.

And in any case, as many groups including IIED point out, many of the most vulnerable communities are among the poorest on the planet, which seriously constrains their options.

Whether the advice is along the lines of staying or going, increasing their wealth and therefore their options is surely the most fundamental of responses.

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