Done deal
UPDATE: The deal is now done. The board has agreed to be taken over by S, at a price of one Santander share for every three A&L shares. A&L's acting chairman Roy Brown says his board couldn't turn the offer down because of what he called "the significant external risks presented by the deterioration in economic conditions and the continuing turbulence in the financial markets".
But one of A&L's larger investors is hopeful that Santander is not the only bank left in the world with steel cojones. Its head of UK equities, David Cumming, is trying to encourage a counter-bid from another financial institution, to push up the take-out price.
He says: "This is a gorgeous deal for Banco Santander. They are acquiring Alliance & Leicester on giveaway terms.
"Given the potential integration benefits other banks must surely be reviewing their options. I would be amazed if no one else counters with a higher offer in the next few months."
We'll see. A&L has been vulnerable to a takeover for months, and no one but Santander has been prepared to put a firm offer on the table.
Which is not a surprise? As I wrote here last night (see "It's jobs, stupid"), most banks are trying to improve their capital ratios - so it takes a lot of nerve and a good deal of spare capital to take on A&L's £40bn plus mortgage book, plus the rest of its balance sheet.
Comment number 1.
At 14th Jul 2008, magicSpacebar wrote:Another nail in the coffin of UK PLC? Santander the first of many foreign giants to sift through the bones before the lid goes on.
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Comment number 2.
At 14th Jul 2008, AnddrewH wrote:Surely this should send a chill down the spine of every stakeholder in every small mortgage bank in the country?
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Comment number 3.
At 14th Jul 2008, Peter wrote:A bigger concern to me is how Santander will perform long-term, and how it will be regulated, as a Spanish company, albeit probably has/will have a UK listing.
Peter
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Comment number 4.
At 14th Jul 2008, Branditon wrote:The vultures are gathering.
No doubt in my mind that this will not be last "take over" by a foreign business during the turbulent times to come.
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Comment number 5.
At 14th Jul 2008, GrumpyBob wrote:1*
I dont think there is anything one can add to magicspacebar
sums up our demise perfectly
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Comment number 6.
At 14th Jul 2008, stevewo wrote:This article suggests that banks (including Santander) know what they're doing.
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Comment number 7.
At 14th Jul 2008, skynine wrote:If you think that the English mortgage scenario is bad you out to see how the Spanish property market is going.
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Comment number 8.
At 14th Jul 2008, John_from_Hendon wrote:Are Banco Santander overpaying or underpaying?
How do you determine the future value of a mortgage book in times as 'interesting' and uncertain as these?
Banks, like Alliance and Leicester are mainly worth what their assets will bring in in the future - that is what is being paid for by Banco Santander. We must all hope their gamble pays off.
My feeling is that all present managements have little or no experience of such conditions and will be as blind as the rest of us.
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Comment number 9.
At 14th Jul 2008, U11709695 wrote:There is a big issue here - around the potential tax break that lies behind Santander's reasoning. The mark to market issue may make this exceedingly well timed for them
Was similar for Ferrovial and BAA deal of recent times.
More detail here
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Comment number 10.
At 15th Jul 2008, YummyCarolKirkwood wrote:A&L's acting chairman Roy Brown says his board couldn't turn the offer down because of what he called "the significant external risks presented by the deterioration in economic conditions and the continuing turbulence in the financial markets".
Oh yes, and weren't all the prominent financial and economic "experts" telling us that the worst of the credit crunch was over a few weeks ago? So, I take it then that the crisis with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that has played out over the last few days is the credit crunch getting better? Where would we be without all these experts to ensure that all our problems are addressed so competently?
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Comment number 11.
At 15th Jul 2008, Blogpolice wrote:So Brits buy property in Spain (to flee UK)and Spaniards buy banks and airports in UK on cheap. Labour have a lot to answer for.
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Comment number 12.
At 15th Jul 2008, dennisjunior1 wrote:Robert
The reason this deal went thru was because it was a great deal for the Spanish bank.
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Comment number 13.
At 15th Jul 2008, Hippy god says Peace and Love likes RT wrote:In turbulent times, why don't they try issuing other forms of Equity ?
Such as my personal favourite:
Convertible Preference Shares
They can be sold for a pound each, convertible in the future (many years away if needed) into Ordinary Shares at a given rate, and they have a fixed rate of return until converted.
Whats not to like ?
Worrying to see how much power the Shortsellers seem to have over the Stock market and the companies listed thereon.
Disproportionate influence in the hands of a small number of people.........
Where will it all end ?
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Comment number 14.
At 15th Jul 2008, Chris B wrote:#13 I'm not familiar with the exact regulatory treatment of convertible shares, but don't you think they will simply be treated as debt until they are converted? If so, they won't help the solvency capital position of the bank much.
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Comment number 15.
At 15th Jul 2008, Matt B wrote:1. So Santander gets to combine Abbey and A+L. Will it then make sense for them to sell this off as a viable independent entity?
2. Is this deal really a merger rather than an acquisition? or does Santander expect to fork out real money for the A+L shares?
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Comment number 16.
At 15th Jul 2008, Matt B wrote:Index tracking funds will hold large amounts of shares like RBS. Can their fund managers lend the shares, for shorting, without risk since their primary performance target is to track the index rather than maximise the value of their fund?
Are there any special rules for this situation?
If a large number of, e.g. RBS, shares are held in such funds then can this information be used to forecast that these shares are less liquid than other shares/commodities? Does this create a damping mechanism that reduces short term volatility but extends the period over which share price changes occur?
This is perhaps slightly off topic but relevant to understanding the value of shares in the banking sector?
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Comment number 17.
At 15th Jul 2008, Dorte2 wrote:Robert,
Are you ready to admit at last that you completely missed the story with the credit crunch issue? You were so determined to focus the issue on NR - causing a run there
by deliberately linking the liquidity issue to security of deposits which was nonsense- that the wider picture just passed you right by- didn't it?. Banks- such as Abbey- that were already owned by Santander had the massive advantage of being able to look to the ECB for liquidity whereas NR- wholly UK owned -had to go to the BoE. The Fed reserve and ECB handled the situation sensibly, whereas the BoE leaked the story to a reporter trying to make a name for himself irrespective of the damage his irresponsible reporting did and the rest is history....
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Comment number 18.
At 15th Jul 2008, virtualsilverlady wrote:Is the world being run with monopoly money?
We hear of billions or trillions being poured into banks to keep them going.
Who is printing this money and what is the true value of anything anymore.
No doubt we will find out soon enough.
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Comment number 19.
At 15th Jul 2008, ThoughtCrime wrote:#18, virtualsilverlady
The intrinsic value of the five pound note in your pocket is nothing. It only has value because the people you hand it to in payment accept it as having a value. In other words, everybody accepts the promise written on it.
Many months ago when Z$500 notes were still in use in Zimbabwe, prices were such that a single sheet of toilet paper was "worth" Z$550. This naturally led to much speculation as to the likely fate of the Z$500 notes. That shows you the intrinsic value of the notes in your pocket.
Inflation is already hurting people badly. The CPI is all well and good as a figure but doesn't reflect the things that people actually have to buy. Wait for things to get worse...
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Comment number 20.
At 15th Jul 2008, Hippy god says Peace and Love likes RT wrote:No Preference Shares though old fashioned are a class of Equity.
To the best of my knowledge acceptable for the capital rules.
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Comment number 21.
At 15th Jul 2008, Hippy god says Peace and Love likes RT wrote:I would be interested in Roberts views on Convertible Preference Shares.
Convertible Bonds yet another fund raising technique were used to great effect by the old Hanson Trust many years ago.
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Comment number 22.
At 15th Jul 2008, TRUST_NO_1 wrote:It is an irrelevance.
Banks are destined to fail.
The people who feed the banking system..the middle class... are going bust.
They (the middle class) are slowly waking up to the fact.
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Comment number 23.
At 15th Jul 2008, Hippy god says Peace and Love likes RT wrote:The words Grand Slam come to mind !
So long as no one is planning a National Emergency Resource Coordinating Commission (NERCC) we'll probably be okay !
In other words, it's not the end of the world, not by a long way.
We could do with the Electric cars about now.......
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Comment number 24.
At 17th Jul 2008, Hippy god says Peace and Love likes RT wrote:Perhaps Bidders will appear for B and B now their rights Issue has been accepted by shareholders.
Accepted according to FT Alphavilles report.
Clive Cowdery was prepared to offer 70ish pence per share in his refinancing.
Would that be the take out price I wonder ?
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