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Enjoy it while it lasts...

Ian Fergusson | 19:44 UK time, Tuesday, 27 October 2009

Time for a brief updateÌýlooking aheadÌýtowards the weekend, when - albeit mild conditions will still prevail - some very wet weather could become a feature, at least for a while.

Our balmy weather continues through to the end of this working week, as discussed in my last blog. More cloud around for many across the West tomorrow (Wednesday), but 17-18C still widely on the cards irrespective of any grey skies. A better chance of more widespread brighter conditionsÌýreturningÌýon Thursday and cloudier again by Friday...Ìýand by then, we'll have grown accustomed to daytime highs around 18C and overnight lows around 13-14CÌý(that's about twice the !).

Ever-thickening Stratocumulus gathers above the M5 southbound, near Burnham-on-Sea, Somerset

Dark, rain-bearing skies are expected to return across the West mid-weekend... but the forecast detail remains uncertain, at least for now.

So, my attention now focuses further ahead,Ìýinto the weekend. Never straightforward, my job (refer to previous comments here!) and sure enough, it's currently a tricky forecast - with various possible outcomes - keeping my grey matter working at overdrive on these early morning shifts.

Our present expectation is for dry, bright and increasingly breezyÌýweatherÌýduring the bulk of Saturday to be replaced by wet - and potentially very wet - conditions developing overnight into Sunday morning.

The regional forecast precision remains elusive at this stage, but with the focus for heaviest rain somewhere acrossÌýsouthern / southern-central England. Watch this space and I'll keep you updated on the evolving Met Office forecast...

As for next week? Well, by midweek we expect a return to temperatures somewhere around the seasonal average. Unsettled weather, in the continuing west/southwesterly flow off the Atlantic, will dominate proceedings - possibly accompanied by some very windy conditions at times.

UPDATE, 19.45hrs, WED 28 OCTOBER:

We continue to watch the forecast evolution of deep Ìýfor Saturday night, with the story broadly painting the same picture: turning very wet and windy.

But exactly how wet, and how windy?

The Met Office forecast modelling for Saturday night into Sunday continues to broadly paint a distinctly wet and windy story (Image: Courtesy Met Office)OurÌýdifficultyÌýremains establishing the precise track of this depression. Consequently, it's regional impact across the British Isles - in terms of any severe weather potential - remains very speculative, for now. But over the next 48 hours, successive runs of the Met Office's , alongside those producedÌýby other nations such as , will help flesh-out some likely detail as we get nearer to the weekend.

I've just been reading throughÌýan updatedÌýbriefing received from the Met Office Operations Centre in Exeter. Their latest frame validÌýfor Saturday night (see right) highlights the key features we can expect: those tightly-packed isobars signifying the windy weather approaching from the southwest; the associated bright yellow colours denoting a swathe of heavy rain.ÌýWe rely heavily on thisÌýsort ofÌýbroadscale and subsequentÌýhigher detail (i.e., typically near-term models run at aÌýresolution of 4km) forecast output fromÌýour Met Office colleagues, whenÌýdetermining your local forecasts.

Will theÌýTrick or Treating typesÌýget a drenching over the weekend? It's looking likely (and I dare say some of youÌýmay have mixed views on that prospect!).ÌýWatch this space...

Ìý

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Ian, just a point about the presentation of your blog.

    Not sure what the technical terminology is or whether it can be easily altered, but the bits that are highlighted and underlined that...(is it called)'hyperlink' to other pages. They are very difficult to distinguish from the rest of the writing because, well on my laptop anyway, they appear a very similar colour. Are they set for dark blue? Can you not set them for a lighter blue or another colour so as to easily contrast with the general black typeface. People may be missing out a lot because of this...just a thought.

  • Comment number 2.

    Hi Uncle_Deedee - many thanks for the feedback. I'm seeking technical advice to resolve your query; I agree that on some screens / browsers, the default hyperlink text colour is not very clear and too dark a shade of blue. I'm sure we can resolve this for you... please bear with me while we sort it out! Best, Ian

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