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Thanks for this Ian, I really appreciate it. Can't believe how many races have been predicted to have rain at some point this year - even Turkey had several drops to add to the mix.


I was wondering, are you yourself an F1 fan or do you just put those little 'snippets' in to broaden things out a bit? ;-)

Anyway, keep up the good work, this blog has been excellent for F1 fans this year.

This forecast doesn't surprise me too much, as alot of forecasts have suggested this weekend could be wet, albeit with change in the amount of rain, when, etc. A bit of rain would certainly be fun during the race though.

Hi again Ian. It does seem like it'll be quite difficult to be 100% certain, especially as far as thundery showers go (they can of course always pop up at any time, eg 2008 a random thundery shower popped up just before the end of qualifying, passed about a mile away from the circuit, and disappeared almost as quickly as it appeared in the first place). As with Turkey though, it's also a problem trying to pin down the weather for a small area, in a small window of time, which makes things that much more difficult. However, I'm loving these blogs, and I look forward to them continuing all season long (and all being well, next season too).

That in itself is positive Ian if most places are pretty much in agreement at this stage, shows confidence is geneally higher than normal despite being a few days away from the running. The fact the Canadians in particular seem to agree is also a boost. Just got to see if the confidence is well placed or not.

Thanks for the response Ian.

Great to hear :-)

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Once again, many thanks for your blog Ian.

I have a feeling you might need to update this one a bit more than Turkey ;)

If you're right about severe thunderstorms, surely if the rain associated with that is extremely heavy, we'd be looking at a Safety Car/red flag situation.

Thanks for the forecast Ian. You've been kept busy so far this year with uncertain weather. One good thing about the Gilles Villeneuve circuit is regardless of the weather it produces a good race but rain might just spice it up that bit more. The problem however is if it's heavy rain it means aquaplaning and aquaplaning means crashes and in Canada that means SC's and red flags as stevvy says. Valencia in two weeks could sure do with some rain though.

Thanks again Ian and keep up the great blogs.

Hi Ian. You're correct about rain at Montreal before, and the last race with rain there was in 2000, which wasn't a truly heavy downpour, more.......a consistent shower, which wasn't light (eg Australia 2010), but which wasn't very heavy either (eg Malaysia 09). It was wet enough for full wets I believe, but it wasn't a downpour as such. As for this weekend, obviously we're still a few days away, but I think the fact that the forecasts have singled out Sunday as the worst day for quite a few days now, and seem to be slowly beginning to agree on the rain threat, then it does look likely, but of course we're a few days away yet, and there is of course also the issue of how heavy the rain is (if it does fall) and is it just light rain, normal rain (well, ok, normal in terms of not being light but not being a downpour either), or it being heavy rain. Either way, this is certainly a very interesting and intriguing developing story, which seems like it wants to give us umpteen possibilities for Sunday, though of course Saturday shouldn't be forgotten, as it does seem like there's a risk (albeit not a particularly high risk at this stage) of rain affecting the on track action on Saturday too. Looking forward to further updates.

I appreciate the risk of rain at various times over the weekend hasn't really been more than about 50%, but I do hope we get some rain on Sunday, even if it's just light rain. Wouldn't be surprised if the fact the race is starting an hour or 2 earlier than normal (due to the World Cup seemingly) ends up meaning it raining between 2-4pm (which would be the normal race running time), but not between 12-2pm.

Great video forecast, thanks. Looks like Montreal should get some showers on Sunday, just depends on timing really as Stevvy says the race time start locally is 12 noon

Excellent blog, Ian, thanks very much. I didn't even know such a thing existed until today. Useful links to the local services too. Nice work.

Yes, absolutely understandable but great that one is being done for each weekend. You'll be on the pre-race show by 2011 ;) Indeed, i'm no expert but it's been clear in several races how trying to predict when the rain will hit, even in a short time frame, can be difficult to call correctly

Really interesting blog and forecast Ian, thanks. Looks like it is going to be an interesting weekend of racing!

Love the video forecast addition =)

Well Ian, I don't know if you've noticed the latest forecast from the guys over at Autosport (only mentioning them as you've mentioned them before) but they now say that rain is expected in the early hours Canadian time, and expected to last certainly until mid morning at least, if not longer, and raceday is likely to be dry, with any rain falling not being very heavy, unlikely Saturday. Any thoughts? As I don't think anyone forecast rain to be around for so long tomorrow, if at all,

This shows that rain is most likely on Saturday morning with a wet track for third practice and damp conditions for qualifying with the risk of showers. Sunday should be dry with a small chance of rain.

Well, it does seem that today will be hit and miss as far as conditions for FP3 and qualifying go, does seem uncertain as to just how wet the track will be for those 2 sessions, but mixed conditions would be good fun. I can see everyone going out first thing in each session (as they should have done in Malaysia) to get a banker lap in, just in case a shower does appear later on, and if it doesn't, then they'll obviously go out later on in the session as well to try and set a quicker time, but it does seem like the conditions will be anything but certain. Thanks for the further update Ian.

Ian, would you say Qualifying is more than likely going to be occuring in damp conditions, with the potential for dries halfway through? Also, will showers more than likely occur through the session based on forecasts, meaning it'll be all about going out at the 'right moment'? :)

Interesting and informative response as always Ian. Interesting that you mention it possibly becoming possibly a bit sunnier and slightly higher temperatures, and rather than totally getting rid of the shower risk, it could increase the shower threat. It does seem like it'll be a case of radar watching all day for the teams. I also agree about the teams being crazy to wait before doing a lap. The only sensible thing to do (rain risk or not, and regardless of track conditions) is to get a banker lap in, in case it rains, or they wait too long, and a yellow flag or red flag comes out, and doesn't leave them enough time to get a good time in, and Canada is certainly 1 of those races where that's entirely possible. Also just to add another issue with the rain and track drying etc, some of the track seems to be covered by trees in areas, and that could also slow the drying process in certain areas, plus the area under the bridge heading into the chicane which then leads to the hairpin, that could stay wet for quite a while, even if the rest of the track is dry.

Hmmmm, just reading your 2nd response there, I'd prefer some heavier rain, to give a higher chance of a wet track during FP3 and quali (maybe that's just me wanting extra excitement from it).

Ah, OK... me thinks Qualifying will be dry, but hopefully not...

Nice to see that the rain has gone away for practice and qualifying. (quelle surprise and sarcasm)

Quick look at the radar shows a band of rain... to the south of the circuit and not likely to hit it... :(

On this radar if you zoom out so the scale thing is 1000km on left you an see some rain aproaching montreal. Will it hit the circuit???

Had a look at at this:

I can't believe what I'm seeing! It looks as though rain will hit the circuit before the race!

James S, you don't know where the circuit is on there, nor which direction any rain will head in. As far as post race goes, if there's rain between 2-4pm Canadian time I'll be annoyed, as that'd normally be the window for a grand prix to take place.

Stevvy I see your point but in general, Montreal 'should' get some rain today. When it falls however, is another thing.

On that website go to about 500km up and move north west the track is basically where that red pointer is because if you zoom right in you can see the circuit clearer and there is some round around 450km away heading towards montreal possibly race time!?

That rain doesn't look like it's heading south - looks a bit north of Montreal to me and heading to the east above Montreal.

As far as the rain that's showing on the radar that Andrew posted that's currently north of Montreal, that won't hit the track, and the foreast for the rest of the day shows the small band of rain heading towards Timmins won't get anywhere near Montreal during the race. I think if it's going to rain, it'll be a shower that pops up out of nowhere.

Stevvy I agree because the rain i mentioned is to far away and is not moving quick enough. And as Stevvy said we need a shower from nowhere just like the rain that never came in Turkey

rain west of montreal will it reach the circuit
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