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Monza,Ìý10 -Ìý12ÌýSeptember 2010 (Round 14)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: FridayÌý10 September, 06:20hrs BST)

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Quick Links:

• Ìý(via Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale,ÌýPiemonte)
• ÌýAirportÌý(via Euroweather)
• (EUMETSAT/DWD via sat24.com)Ìý

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Forecast Summary:

(PPN = Precipitation)

Emphasis:ÌýA dry & fine spell of settled weather expected across all three days.Ìý

Friday:ÌýSunny and fineÌýwith some scatteredÌýconvective cloud development. Chance of PPN <5%. Max 23C. Wind light &Ìývariable, predominantly SW.

Saturday: Dry, sunny and settled. Max 23C. Wind lightÌýS-SSE.

Sunday:ÌýContinuing sunny, dryÌýand fine; some convective cloud development PM. Max 23C. Wind light, variable, predominantlyÌýSSW.Ìý

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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:

I returned from holidayÌývery early this morningÌýand immediately settled on the sofa to watch the Belgium Grand Prix, having successfuly avoided all newsmedia and potential 'spoilers'Ìýwhilst away! It was quite a strange experience, watching recordings of qualifying and race 'as live', hoping the forecast updates I'd been giving while abroad via Twitter proved correct.ÌýAs it transpired,Ìýthe SpaÌýweather proved much as expected... and what a fantastic race it was!

After those varied 'banana skins' of Ardennes weather, it's a very different forecast prospect for this next event in Monza. We're now into the driest month of the year, in terms ofÌý.Ìý

I've been catching-up with theÌýmodel outputÌýand the general consensus and continuity between the main operational centresÌýlooks pretty decent this time -Ìýall of it leaning strongly in favour of a dry and settled spell between Friday and Sunday.

In broadscale terms, an upper trough and vortexÌýwill provide periodically inclement conditionsÌýinto Thursday, with attendant showers across parts of northern Italy likely to then ease away southwards and eastwards overnight, long before Friday's action gets underway.

Friday itself is a day of transition to fine conditions; the influence of the upper trough relaxing; surface pressure rising and the risk of further showers greatly reduced. It should prove a dry and fine day for FP1 & 2, with just a very small % chance of isolated showers as theÌýresidual of upper forcing slips away eastwards from northern Italy into the Adriatic.

Into the weekend, ridge conditions continue developing from the west and indeed more broadly to the east as well. It's partly courtesy ofÌýan extension of theÌýAzores High, which willÌýbecome a dominant feature by Sunday across western Europe, with a high cell also located towards Russia.Ìý

Both Saturday and Sunday thus look dry, fine and settled with plenty of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud and convective infillÌýwill tend to develop by the afternoon perhaps, more especially soÌýlater on Sunday. AÌýdry race therefore, with ambient temperature inthe low to mid 20's C bracket and light winds.

TheÌýrun-to-run continuity from ECMWF,ÌýUKMO andÌýGFS isÌývery good, so forecast confidenceÌýremains high for dry running to prevailÌýduring all practice sessions, qualifying and race. I'll keep you updated on any change of emphasis.ÌýÌý

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