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Sounds like a very very difficult forecast to predict for this weekend. Hopefully we won't see undriveable conditions, but it sounds like even at this stage, that both Saturday and Sunday are very much on a knife edge in terms of when rain falls, how heavy, but also when the rain stops and how quickly the track dries. Certainly seems like the teams may have to gamble as to what sort of setup to go for in qualifying, given that they can't change it for the race. Obviously things should become a bit clearer as we get closer to the race weekend, but certainly looks like it's impossible at this stage to be even remotely certain of the forecast.

Japan is one of those tracks where it is hard to drive in the dry. One mistake and you could be stuck in the gravel. So if it does rain we could see some gambles and brave moves.

I am a non-native English speaker. Perhaps for native speakers it looks normal, but I think your writing style is great! Is that a fair comment?

It really does look like a knife edge situation this weekend. Hopefully we won't see any weather related red flags, but Saturday at this stage does look pretty bad. It'll be interesting though with the timing as to how long the rain hangs around on Sunday, ie if it's all gone by dawn, or still the odd light shower here and there (race starting at 3pm Japanese time of course). I don't envy your task forecasting the weather for this weekend Ian, it looks like you could have your work cut out, but really do appreciate the very detailed updates you give us.

Well, it seems like we should get away with 2 dry sessions on Friday, but sounds like Saturday is still basically certain to be wet. Just a case of how wet now. Sounds like very heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday morning though, but seems like once the rain clears, it'll become warm and sunny, probably quite early in the day.

When was the last time in an f1 race that it rained from start to finish without stopping?

China 09 I think, and before that........probably Japan 07

Should be very interesting on setups this week. I was watching the Classic Japanese Grands Prix today and one of them was red-flagged after hail. I hope that doesn't happen for any of the sessions.

My article: /dna/606/A75116720 gives a selection of different forecasts but I must say they are all relatively similar to this one.

Just one question. This rain on Saturday night/Sunday morning. It's predicted to be a few inches of rain but what I want to know is how long it would take for an even surface to dry a track that has had 75mm of rain in around 12 hours. What variables decide how long it takes?

Thanks Ian for all the updates. It's much appreciated.

That's really frustrating regarding losing your detailed blog entry after 50 minutes of writing it. Really do hope the worst of the rain comes after quali though, nobody wants it to be red flag conditions. I sort of get the impression that track conditions on Sunday, assuming we don't get any further light showers after the really heavy rain, will depend entirely on when the rain stops. If it stops at say 9am, with the amount of rain forecast, I can see the whole track being slightly damp, with wetter patches offline/under the bridge/run-off areas. Even in that respect, it's going to be uncertain as to the track conditions, as the timing of the end of the rain doesn't seem 100% certain yet. It does sound like we could end up dodging a bullet though on Saturday in terms of the REALLY heavy rain, as I suppose another issue is the build up of rain over a period of time, which can cause problems in itself.

Just another quick thing as well, there's only going to be about 1 hour of on track action on Sunday before the start of the race, which will help dry the track slightly, but shouldn't make too much difference. Just wondering as well as to whether the combination of the heavy rain, as well as possible low cloud could create a problem with fog on Saturday morning. Just a thought, and may be a pointless 1 if there's no chance, it just seems possible to me for some reason (maybe I'm thinking of Fuji and the issues there with Mount Fuji, fog, etc).

Well, it's currently raining apparently, and Saturday looks 100% certain to be wet (haven't said that in a while). I know you talk about red flag conditions being a low risk possibility, but my gut feeling says that we will see red flag conditions, mainly in quali, what with the build up of rain etc. Obviously I don't want red flag conditions, but I do expect them if I'm honest.

Ian, do you think we're heading into potential cancellation conditions for tomorrow's Qualifying?

If only this was a European race I'd be looking at the radar in the hours before Qualifying - tomorrow I'll be getting up at 5am, I'll be a tad annoyed if there is no action. ;)

I do get the impression that any red flags (be they for the weather or accidents) will only lead to heavier rain, as it does seem like the heavier stuff will fall once quali starts. As far as doing quali on Sunday morning is concerned, they managed fine there in 2004 (all Saturday action was cancelled on the Friday due to the expected arrival of Typhoon Ma-on which thankfully changed course at the last minute and missed the track), and they managed to get that on no problem (and that was in the days of pre qualifying and then qualifying itself), so I don't see that being an issue this year if it comes to that. Just hope we get all 3 quali sessions in. Though you may be interested by this tweet from Jonathan Legard:

F1 first - saw sandbags around circuit at T1 and Degner when running Suzuka. Must be expecting a lot of rain...

Well I do hope for the same Ian, in terms of the drivers able to navigate the circuit ok, no red flags, etc. As you say though, it does seem to be the effect of so many hours rain that's going to be the biggest problem. Even if there was just a 3 hour period where it was bone dry it'd hopefully help to clear at least some of the water, but that doesn't sound like it's going to happen.

After reading this blog, I think it won't rain during Quali, the showers could arrive before qualifing and rain again later in the evening or overnight.

Theo, you're wrong, it will rain at some stage during quali even if it's just light rain, it will be a wet session. Unless it stops raining now and doesn't rain again, it'll be a wet session, and I can tell you right now that it'll carry on raining, and we will get a wet session. There's absolutely no doubt about it.

OK stevvy1986,

Perhaps you are correct but predicted rain does not always arrive on queue. as you said, it could be a wet session because of earlier rain.

Does anyone know what happens if qualifying is wet but Sunday's race condition is dry and what would be the tyre choice/regulation for Sunday's front runners?

theo 55, if qualy is wet and race starts dry, then the WHOLE field can choose either of the dry tyres at the start on sunday.

Correct sato113, although they will still have to use both types of dry tyres unless they have to put inters/full wets on during the race/for the start.

Not good, there's an advisory from the JMA for the area, the advisories (looking on their website) being for gales, storm surges, and thunderstorms.

This tweet from 1 of the Autosport guys makes me worry big time for quali (hope you don't mind me mentioning it's 1 of their guys by the way, just passing on info):

There is an extremely nasty storm cell 50 miles to the south of #suzuka #F1 circuit. Is currently bang on course to strike in the next 2 hrs

Well, I don't think any of us are happy about the red flag conditions, but they obviously had no choice, the only safe way they could've been allowed on track would've been if they'd been given powerboats. Will have to wait and see what happens for quali in terms of the track and how dry it is, but even if it's dry, if you go off over the grass, you're going to bring up alot of water I'd imagine, as the run-off areas will be absolutely sodden. Seems pretty certain that the race will be dry though, which is good, and I have to say I think having the quali session on the Sunday morning only increases that chance, even if quali starts damp, purely because you'll have cars running on track clearing up any lingering wet/damp patches. Good job this didn't come tomorrow though, because as we saw, even the safety car was struggling at times, and to even have a race totally under the safety car wouldn't have worked, but anyway, at least it'll gradually improve.

Well it did allow me to catch up with Emmerdale Omnibus on ITV2!

Still hope we at least get some weather tomorrow morning. A bit disappointing to have completely dry weekend merely because it was too wet.

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