大象传媒

I am indebted to Fred Kaplan of for reminding me in the a couple of days ago what Condoleezza Rice said about US foreign policy just shortly after the start of George Bush鈥檚 second term in 2005. 鈥淔or 60 years,鈥� she said, 鈥渕y country, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region . . . and we achieved neither. Now we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people.鈥�

Hmm. Here鈥檚 what the US defence secretary Robert Gates said after what Pakistanis are calling Pervez Mursharraf鈥檚 鈥渟econd coup鈥�, his declaration of a state of emergency at the weekend. 鈥淧akistan is a country of great strategic importance to the United States and a key partner in the war on terror ... The actions of the past 72 hours have been disturbing ... [but] we are mindful not to do anything that would undermine ongoing counter-terrorism efforts.鈥�

Pakistan is one of Washington鈥檚 most important allies in Asia. After the attacks in New York and Washington on 11 September 2001, General Musharraf quickly decided that it would be in his best interests to join the US in its 鈥渨ar on terror鈥�. It brought him billions of dollars in aid, but increasing unpopularity at home. The Taliban in Afghanistan have now been joined by the Taliban in Pakistan. Musharraf has sent the army in to deal with them, much to the army鈥檚 disquiet.

For a succinct, if complex, outline of what鈥檚 been happening in the area of Pakistan that borders Afghanistan, I recommend by the American academic Barnett Rubin of the Center on International Cooperation of New York University. He writes:

"According to sources in the Northwest Frontier Province, the Taliban (Afghan and Pakistani) have established an Islamic Emirate centered in Mirali, North Waziristan, the home base of Commander Jalaluddin Haqqani (Afghan Jadran from Khost) and his son Sirajuddin. This Emirate acknowledges Mullah Muhammad Umar as Amir, but it is mainly run by the Haqqanis, with the Pakistani Mehsud leader, Baitulah Mehsud of South Waziristan, as its main public face. The Emirate has established structures in all seven Tribal Agencies, though it is strongest in North and South Waziristan and has not penetrated the Shi'a areas of upper Kurram. Besides Pakistani and Afghan Pashtuns, its forces include the Uzbeks displaced from South Waziristan and others from the former USSR (collectively if not accurately called "Chechens"), whom the local people accuse of the greatest brutalities, such as the beheading of prisoners.

"From these bases, the Emirate has launched its offensive in Swat and has infiltrated around Peshawar from several directions. Recently Taliban appeared in Qisakhani Bazaar in the old city of Peshawar and ordered traders to remove "un-Islamic" posters. There was no reaction from the police or administration. There are dozens of Taliban FM stations broadcasting calls to jihad in both the tribal agencies and the "settled" (administered) areas of NWFP.鈥�

General Musharraf knew that Washington wouldn鈥檛 be happy if he declared a state of emergency. But it seems he calculated that he was in greater danger from an independent-minded judiciary than from the wrath of the US. If the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides similarly to ignore Washington鈥檚 entreaties and embark on a military adventure against Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq, he too will have calculated that there are worse things in the world than upsetting the US.

Add to that the ever-diminishing expectations of progress at an international Middle East meeting 鈥� they鈥檙e no longer calling it a conference 鈥� that Condoleezza Rice is still hoping to stitch together for later this month, and you begin to see what happens globally when a US administration is perceived to be running out of influence.

My dictionary gives as one of its definitions of 鈥渓ame duck鈥�: a person or thing that is disabled, helpless, or ineffective.

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