Lustig's Survival Guide to US Elections 2008
Confused? Sorry, folks, you ain鈥檛 seen nothin鈥 yet. So here, as a public service, is the Lustig cut-out-and-keep Survival Guide to US Elections 2008.
1. Disregard any report that contains the words 鈥淲hat these results show clearly is 鈥︹ The results of the primaries won鈥檛 show anything clearly at least until after February 5, Super Tuesday. After that, with voters in about half of the states having chosen their candidates, we may, repeat may, have a clearer idea of what鈥檚 in store.
2. Don鈥檛 say it鈥檚 boring. It鈥檚 not. Think of it as a TV drama: great characters, improbable story lines, unexpected twists. After Labor Day (September 1), you can start taking it seriously.
3. Ignore anyone who tells you it鈥檚 all about how nicely Barack Obama smiles. Or how vulnerable Hillary Clinton looked when she cried. It鈥檚 not. Or maybe it is. No one knows.
4. Don鈥檛 forget that the Republicans might win. Just because none of their candidates is a woman or black doesn鈥檛 mean they鈥檙e not interesting.
5. Memorise a couple of interesting little facts with which to impress your friends and neighbours. For example: This is the first Presidential campaign since 1928 in which neither a President nor a Vice-President will be a candidate.
(UPDATE: In fact, as has been pointed out to me, the same was true in 1952, although then the Democratic Party candidate Adlai Stevenson had the public approval of President Truman -- so it was still less wide open than this year's race. In the event, of course, the 1952 election was won by General Dwight Eisenhower.)
Here鈥檚 another one: If the eventual winner is Obama, Clinton or McCain, it鈥檒l be the first time a Senator has made it to the White House since John F Kennedy in 1961. (Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush had all been Vice-Presidents; Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush were all former State Governors.)
Or how about this one? If the eventual winner is boy wonder Barack Obama, who鈥檒l be 47 on inauguration day, he鈥檒l still be older than either JFK (43), or Bill Clinton (46).
6. Don鈥檛 believe anyone who says Barack Obama is doing better than any previous black Presidential candidate. In 1988, Jesse Jackson won seven primaries (Alabama, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Puerto Rico and Virginia) and four caucuses (Delaware, Michigan, South Carolina and Vermont). So far, Mr Obama has won one. But admittedly, 20 years ago, Jackson was never likely to win Iowa.
7. Keep an eye on the delegate count. Yes, it鈥檚 complicated, but it鈥檚 what matters. The winning candidate is whoever has most delegates at the party conventions in the summer. The current tally for the Democrats is: Clinton 183; Obama 78; Edwards 52. (Total needed: 2,025) On the Republican side it鈥檚 Romney 30; Huckabee 21; McCain 10. (Total needed: 1,191) There's a handy running tally kept by CNN .
8. Don鈥檛 believe all this stuff about how for the first time, young voters are getting excited by the contest. Four years ago, they were going just as wild for Howard Dean (who?). And greybeards like me remember someone called Eugene McCarthy, who in 1968 was the hero of the young anti-Vietnam war generation. He didn鈥檛 win either.
See? Easy, isn鈥檛 it?
The US commercial mass media spent yesterday scratching its collective heads over how "the pollsters" could have gotten it so wrong in New Hampshire while the pollsters themsleves were saying humina humina humina inventing every excuse they could think of no matter how implausible. :-) The only reason any of them takes out their mirrors is to admire themselves. They didn't talk up their surveys as being "scientific" the way they usually do, that rhetoric will have to wait for the American public's short collective memory to forget their latest catastrophic blunder.
One of 大象传媒's correspondents on 大象传媒 World shown on PBS in America asked ABC's Sam Donaldson that question. Of all the people to ask, this was a remarkable pick, he's one of my favorite media dummies. One day on ABC's Sunday morning one hour TV news program, Donaldson asked Sam Nunn who was then Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee; "B1, B2, why don't we just build the Stealth Bomber Senator?" to which Nunn replied; "The B2 IS the Stealth Bomber Mr. Donaldson." So much for knowledge and preparedness. I think of that every time someone interviewed by 大象传媒 has to correct the interviewer about the errors in the presumption of the question he posed. The commercial mass media which now sadly includes 大象传媒 hangs on to each other for dear life. If you want greater insight, watch C-SPAN and PBS. Among my favorites is Charlie Rose who is on late every weeknight. His one hour interview program will tell you far more than you will get from the Commercial media in two weeks combined. Washington Week on Friday nights and the PBS Nightly News are also excellent sources. The Leon Charney Report is IMO the most authoratitive source for news about the Middle East and although it is shown only on some PBS channels on Sundays, all of its past programs are available on the internet as is Charle Rose.
American political lexicon as with American advertising lexicon is replete with catch phrases and weasel words most Americans ignore instinctively because they are known to exist only for the purpose of deception. Therefore a "scientific poll" or "I'm for change" should have no actual meaning as in the example of people who say "how are you" when they first meet or "have a nice day" when they part. It's surprising to see people fall for Obama's line, like poor fools who never learned about long ago well known scams like pyramid schemes and chain letters. I see that 大象传媒 reported a new poll about Iraq which claims that 150,000 Iraqis died since the end of the invasion in 2003. How convenient that most people have short memories having forgotten Lancet's claim of 650,000 published over a year and a half ago. The new poll is probably as flawed as the Lancet's was and at least in the report, no mention was made of how many who died were the victims of Islamic terrorists 大象传媒 chooses to call "insurgents" or "militants" and how many were the terrorists themselves. Looks like 大象传媒 spin doctor "journalists" have learned well from their American Colleagues.
Complain about this postAnother thing to note is the lack of election based scandal.
Complain about this postWhen are we going to hear about bugging, phone tapping etc and who will it be?
Or do they all take that for granted these days?
We need a scandal like Watergate to get us properly interested. It can't be the case that it isn't going on can it? Maybe as we speak!
November till we actually have a tow horse race so keep em peeled.
Lustig, Ain't it about time you have this blog featured properly on the 'Editors' and creative and journalistic gems like this are brought to a wider audience ??
This guide would have saved all the other Eds having to write 'hand-wringing' posts in response to viewer/listener complaints that they are doing..:-
a/too much
b/too little
about..
c/the Democrats
d/the Republicans
e/ the American elections, period...
First rate stuff, but then we have come to expect that from you, sir...
Complain about this post