Zimbabwe, China and African leadership
According to the , 77 tons of Chinese arms and ammunition may be about to head back to China after protests in South Africa over its intended destination, Zimbabwe.
The Zambian president, Levy Mwanawasa, who is the current head of the Southern African regional grouping SADC, has called on other countries in the region not to let the ship dock in their ports.
This could all be highly significant, because until now Zimbabwe's regional neighbours have been deeply reluctant to appear critical of President Robert Mugabe and the continuing non-publication of the presidential election results, more than three weeks after the polls. And China probably has no great appetite for yet more international criticism as the Olympic torch continues to run the gamut of pro-Tibet protests as it progresses across the globe.
Mr Mugabe is fast running out of friends. To his south, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa is being openly criticised from within his own party, including by the party leader Jacob Zuma, for not being tougher on his Zimbabwean counterpart. It was action by South African dock workers which prevented the arms shipment being unloaded last week; and then the South African high court ruled that the cargo could not legally be taken from the port of Durban to the Zimbabwean border.
Whether any of this will affect developments inside Zimbabwe remains to be seen. All the signs are that the ruling ZANU-PF party is still deeply split over how to handle the crisis that followed last month's elections. When I spoke a few days ago to the deputy information minister, Bright Matonga, he confirmed that he had been among those who met opposition MDC emissaries after the election. He says it was at their request, something the MDC denies - but the very fact that these contacts are now being openly acknowledged is itself significant.
What does seem clear is that the resolution to this crisis, the most serious Mr Mugabe has faced in his 28 years in power, will come from inside Zimbabwe itself. At least some of his neighbours are now openly saying they've had enough, and the former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan has added his voice to those calling for the election results to be published without further delay. That will add strength to the opposition - but the future lies in their hands.
Their hope is that with the help of disaffected ZANU-PF people, and some of the senior echelons in the army and police, they can somehow effect a transition to a post-Mugabe future without violence. The rest of the world watches, and waits.
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