A Libya hypothesis: the rebels won't win
The anti-Gaddafi fighters racing backwards and forwards along Libya's coastal highway are not going to win their war. That's not exactly a prediction; let's call it a working hypothesis.
And if we're going to work with it, we'd better see where it takes us. Suppose they just keep advancing and retreating, day after day, week after week. One day, Brega and Ras Lanouf - places you'd never heard of a month ago - are in anti-Gaddafi hands; 24 hours later, they're back in pro-Gaddafi hands.
Benghazi is the anti-Gaddafi capital; Tripoli is the pro-Gaddafi capital. Libya's third largest city, Misrata, 200 kilometres east of Tripoli, is slowly being pulverised into the ground. I fear that when we finally see the pictures from there, it will not be pretty.
So, if the soldiers can't produce a result, what about the politicians? The national transitional council in Benghazi would like to be regarded as the country's post-Gaddafi government-in-waiting. But no one voted for them, we don't even know who all the members are, and they haven't yet been able to hold a meeting at which they were all present.
In Tripoli, the Gaddafi camp, or what's left of it, continues to breathe defiance. Foreign minister Mousa Koussa is undoubtedly a high-level defection, but let's not forget that the interior and justice ministers both switched sides early in the uprising, and they didn't exactly bring Muammar Gaddafi to his knees.
(Thank you, by the way, to the listener who emailed last night, suggesting that we should ask one of my predecessors to interview the former foreign minister. That way, I could announce: "Now, John Tusa talks to Mousa Koussa.")
Defections are always great propaganda coups; they give the impression of a regime unravelling. But they don't necessarily bring down a regime. Rudolf Hess landed in Scotland in 1941, apparently in the hope that he could negotiate a peace agreement between Britain and Nazi Germany. Not exactly a defector, maybe, but he ended up in prison (he died there 46 years later, in 1987) and Hitler carried on regardless.
Mr Koussa is now said by British officials to be "in a fragile state" after his defection. According to a US embassy written two years ago, and disclosed by WikiLeaks, he was "the rare Libyan official who embodies a combination of intellectual acumen, operational ability and political weight." He was a former head of intelligence, a former mentor to two of Colonel Gaddafi's sons, and may well know the truth about exactly who ordered and carried out the Lockerbie bombing in 1988.
In other words, he's a Big Cheese. If he's prepared to talk to British officials, he doubtless has plenty of tales to tell. Most importantly for now, he could tell which other Gaddafi intimates are ready to switch; what Gaddafi's own state of mind is; and what his sons are up to.
According to one Arab newspaper this week, Saif al-Islam - the son who established such a close working relationship with the LSE - is now touting himself about as the possible leader of a transitional government to pave the way to democracy, once his father has been removed from power. He is said to have held "a number of secret meetings with officials in the French and British governments, discussing the idea of his replacing his father for a transitional period of between two to three years, in return for a comprehensive ceasefire and negotiating with the anti-Gaddafi rebels."
There's no sign at this stage that anyone is much interested in his proposal. But today there are reports that one of Saif's senior aides has been in London recently to talk to British officials, amid what calls "signs that the regime may be looking for an exit strategy." Several other officials are also said to be ready to switch sides.
If they are, it may be that this uprising will be won not by force of arms, but by the gradual implosion of the State structure. There may come a point when there are more Gaddafi people leaving him than staying - it's at that point that the game will be up.
But it's as well to remember that in times of war, what we're told is not always the unvarnished truth. Sowing doubts is as useful as dropping bombs if you want to weaken an army's fighting spirit. The black arts of "pys ops" (pyschological operations) are, I'm sure, alive and well.
Perhaps, within the next few days, Muammar Gaddafi's forces will collapse as more of his senior aides defect. On the other hand, as I wrote last week, we may be in for a long haul. The only thing we can say with any certainty is that no one at this stage can predict how - or when - it will end.
Comment number 1.
At 1st Apr 2011, philocleanthes wrote:Rather than something of an orderly '...gradual implosion of the state structure', it is a disintegration compelled by brave desperation, regional momentum, force of combined arms, and international resolve, that is behind this desertion of a sinking ship of hell.
And the irony is that the Libyans want to escape to a future that some of those long there in the west , now want to pervade it with the authoritarian the spirit that the Libyans despite other combined efforts will escape from.
And apart from the world and history often making shining sense, there are indeed those around in half suspected quarters 'sowing doubts' to bomb the spirit of unmolested self determination.
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Comment number 2.
At 1st Apr 2011, Kit Green wrote:I have heard a rumour that Mousa Koussa has in fact come in from the cold.
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Comment number 3.
At 1st Apr 2011, kkratos wrote:Defections don't make much of a difference to Dictators as the authority which the lackey derives is from his/her proximity to the dictator and not vice versa. So when the lackey dumps the dictator his influence drops to zero and is replaced by ever willing and more vicious subordinates.
Musa Kusa's revelations would be more embaracing to the USA and UK due to the iron clad guarentees given to Col Gaddafi for his immunity by them in excahange for the billions of dollars of trade he gave them. That is the reason why Musa Kusa will not / has not given a public interview so far, before he is thourougly debriefed.
Do remember that Musa kusa though a is a cold blooded killer, his family still resides in Libya, defection --I have doubts, allowed to go maybe. Also Col Gaddafi has not remained in powers for 42 years by simply allowing his enemies to escape, it wuold really be surprising !
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Comment number 4.
At 2nd Apr 2011, Really_Paul wrote:Truth, it is accepted, is the first casualty of War. Winston Churchill's maxim was that Truth should not be allowed out without a bodyguard of Lies. You've called it right on the money, Robin.
Examples:
All allegations of civilian casualties caused by air-strikes come with the 'health warning' that they have not been independently confirmed. Contrast this with the Rebel claim that over 10,000 civilians have been killed by the pro-Gaddafi faction; no 'health warning' or even close questioning of the veracity of that claim - which we know that our reporters and presenters are very capable of doing. Why aren't they?
Next, the selective quoting of Gaddafi's speech, when it looked like his forces would take Benghazi. I acccept that he told the defenders that certain of them (all those who continued to resist) would be shown "no mercy", but it was preceded by an assurance of amnesty to all who laid down (and/or handed in) their weapons. To my mind, quite reasonable - no leader wants Military weaponry in general circulation or posing a threat to his troops - from behind their lines, and aimed at their backs.
Next, the Libyan Government's use of its air-power; claimed to be targeted on civilians. At the time, British reporters suggested that the actual targets were arms-dumps and airfields - which are valid Military targets by anyone's definition. If any weapons went into civilian areas by accident (or due to urgent evasive action by the aircraft, to evade ground fire) it was probably by accident and not by intent. There, too, the weaponry was probably totally unguided, not our (supposedly) super-accurate, and horrendously expensive, Smart Weapons - which certain events in Iraq and Afganistan have shown to be either not as reliable as claimed or capable of being wrongly targeted. If anyone knows of Soviet-era Russian aircraft that is capable of dropping Smart Bombs, please comment hereunder - I don't, Nor do I know of any Smart Bombs produced by Soviet-era Russia and allowed to go for export.
Finally, Obama, Cameron, Sarkozy and their respective minions are thumping the tub about "Gaddafi must GO" every chance they get; but are also claiming that their objective isn't 'regime-change'. The reason is that 'regime-change' is illegal under International Law (a cue for the International Criminal Court to start another investigation, methinks - probably not) and they were hoping that the Rebels would prove to have a lot more Military acumen - and/or many more sympathisers in-country - than seems to be the case.
I hope that I'm wrong, but I feel that Britain, France and the USA have, by interfering, set the stage for a far greater casualty-toll than would otherwise have been the case, will end up as an example of "How to Loose Friends and Alienate People" dragging on for months and months and all at vast public expense - money that could have been far better spent on navigating our way out of the Recession. Forget the excuse that the funding is coming out of the Contingency Reserve - the Contingency Reserve will need to be refilled for the next 'Contingency'.
Also, forget any chance of a valid 'Ceasefire' as long as one side or the other thinks it has (or can gain) a Military advantage. Ceasefires only happen when the side with the upper hand concludes that all (or most) of its objectives have been fulfilled or when both sides have become totally exausted in terms of willing fighters and/or ammunition.
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Comment number 5.
At 3rd Apr 2011, Rustigjongens wrote:Robin,
As you are one of the most prolific bloggers on all things Israeli, I was wondering if you were going to get around to posting your thoughts on the 180 degree change of opinion of Mr Goldstone?.
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Comment number 6.
At 5th Apr 2011, dceilar wrote:Rustigjongens @ 5
I think that there are more important things in the world for Robin to post about than this farce of 'Goldstone's 180 degree turn'.
Israel would certainly like observers to interpret Goldstone’s latest comments as an exoneration. In reality, however, he offered far less consolation to Israel than its supporters claim.
The report’s original accusation that Israeli soldiers committed war crimes still stands, as does criticism of Israel’s use of unconventional weapons such as white phosphorus, the destruction of property on a massive scale, and the taking of civilians as human shields.
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Comment number 7.
At 6th Apr 2011, ghostofsichuan wrote:Gaddafi will be gone in a couple of weeks...don't know who will replace him but his support within Tripoli is eroding fast. Shortages and such will move the process along. He will fall from within his own camp. What happens after that will be of interest. Many of his supporters would have difficulty escaping the gallows for previous behaviors so they are looking for a way out. Other countries are to fast in forgiving past misdeeds to resolve a matter to stabilize oil prices. Many people were tortured and killed by this regime and they may want some form of justice and not be willing to forgive so that big oil can prosper.
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