In March 2021, the 大象传媒 Shared Data Unit reported parts of the UK reliant on tourism had been most affected by the Covid-19 jobs crisis, according to analysis.
In some areas, around three out of five people who began claiming universal credit at the outset of the pandemic were still doing so six months later.
Experts said areas with seasonal employment were more likely to see furloughed workers, those in low-wage jobs or on zero-hours contracts.
The government said it was boosting welfare support by "billions" to help.
Method
The 大象传媒 Shared Data Unit analysed official statistics detailing the number of people who were on Universal Credit up to 12 November.
It was sourced from the DWP鈥檚 datasets:
- Starts on Universal Credit
- People on Universal Credit
The programming language R was used to combine and reshape the data for analysis.
In order to establish the minimum numbers of people still on Universal Credit 6 months after their claims began we analysed increases in the numbers of claimants in the 6-12 month category between September and October (6 months after April and May).
Any increases in those categories could only be due to claimants moving into the 6-12 month category from the 3-6 month category, i.e. those hitting 6 months in that month. (We would have excluded any areas where there was a fall, but this did not apply to any areas).
We also factored in extra increases needed to compensate for claimants moving out of the 6-12 month category, into the 1-2 years category. Where the 1-2 year category also increased that month, we added that number to the calculation of those hitting 6 months (where there was no increase, or a fall, in the 1-2 years category, no additional increase was made).
For example: in Torquay there were 4176 claimants in September in the 6-12 months category (those who had had claims open for that length of time). In October that category swelled to 8745. This means that at least 4569 claimants joined the category that month, as they hit the 6 month point and moved up from the previous category (3-6 months), even before factoring in how many more claimants would be needed to compensate for any moving out of that category.
On that matter, the 1-2 year category increased by 100 claimants that month, who must have moved out of the 6-12 months category. That means that the numbers moving in to the 6-12 months category creating an increase overall, are 100 higher - 4669.
Of course this is only a minimum number moving up into that category, as there are likely to be further claimants moving out of the 6-12 month category due to closing their claim (because, for example, they found work or their wages increased above the threshold for claiming Universal Credit).
Data and sources
The data and background methodology released to partners are available here:
Interviews and quotes
- Richard Burge, Chief Executive of London Chamber of Commerce and Industry
- Labour鈥檚 London Assembly Economy Spokesperson, Leonie Cooper AM
- Powys County Council
- Richmondshire District Council
- Minesh Patel, principal policy manager at Citizens Advice UK
- Emma Congreve, Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde
- Peter Matejic, deputy director for evidence and impact at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
- Nye Cominetti, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation think-tank
- The Department for Work and Pensions
Partner usage
The Shared Data Unit makes data journalism available to the wider news industry as part of the 大象传媒 Local News Partnership. Stories written by partners based on this research included:
- Teesside Live: 2 March 2021
- Cambridgeshire Live: 2 March 2021
- In Your Area (Reach): 2 March 2021
- Shetland News: 2 March 2021
- Lancashire Telegraph: 2 March 2021
- Southampton Daily Echo: 2 March 2021
- Aberdeen Evening Express: 2 March 2021
- Bournemouth Daily Echo: 2 March 2021
- Wigan Today: 3 March 2021
- East Anglian Daily Times: 3 March 2021
The story featured on 大象传媒 front, home and England pages. It was also used by 大象传媒 Somerset, 大象传媒 Radio Shropshire and 大象传媒 Radio Tees.