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The rumours that something might be happening with Craig Williams started late Monday evening and into the night.

Inquiries as to whether he was about to be suspended were met with no response – even from the usually chatty sources.

But it wasn’t that Italy’s last-gasp draw against Croatia was a distraction: there were plenty of conversations taking place - from the prime minister down - about today’s Conservative decision to withdraw support from their Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr candidate..

Privately Tories are furious at what Mr Williams, and others alleged to have placed bets on the election, have done.

Even after the soggy-suited campaign launch, Euros faux pas in Barry and D-Day, this has felt really serious and has certainly gone on for longer.

The Welsh context is particularly damaging for the Conservatives.

Montgomeryshire – as it was called before boundary changes - was the safest Tory seat in Wales after the last election.

There is the very real possibility this will be the only seat they win this time round. But even that now looks fanciful.

Mr Williams will lose access to campaign literature, online ads and databases of phone numbers needed to rally supporters in the final few days.

He is cut adrift.

Behind the scenes some Tories think his chances of retaining the seat are now very slim indeed, even if Mr Williams has apologised and said that he will carry on.

The worst-case, but realistic, scenario of a Welsh wipeout looms.

The personal context will also hurt both the PM and his former aide.

Mr Sunak and Mr Williams are close - Mr Sunak was asked by Sky during the 2022 leadership hustings what he thought of when he thought of Wales.

"My dear friend and PPS Craig Williams" was his response.

What perhaps makes it worse is that the gambling scandal won’t go away, despite the decision to withdraw support.

The Gambling Commission itself needs to finish its inquiries.

Mr Williams - now to all intents and purposes an independent candidate even though he has not formally been suspended - might still win.

And what then?

Well he could face a standards investigation and, depending on the outcome, a recall petition and a by-election could follow.

Opposition parties, already agape at the state of the Tory campaign, will question again and again why it took the PM two weeks to make this decision.

There was once a quip doing the rounds that Craig Williams was the shadow secretary of state for Wales in waiting, especially if he ended up as the only Welsh Tory MP.

The odds on that now look impossibly longer.

You can find a full list of candidates for the Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr constituency on the ´óÏó´«Ã½ News website.