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Why has Ukraine launched a cross-border attack on Russia?
- Author, James Waterhouse
- Role, 大象传媒 News, Kyiv
When Kyiv launched a cross-border raid into Russia鈥檚 Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the question from some military experts was: 鈥淲hy?鈥
One of Ukraine鈥檚 biggest battlefield issues is manpower. Russia has more soldiers and is inching closer to the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
So, sending hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers into Russia itself is, shall we say, counterintuitive in the eyes of some.
But not all.
鈥淚t wasn鈥檛 accidental,鈥 said war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets in a Facebook post. 鈥淚t鈥檚 clearly part of one clear plan."
Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, agrees. He told the 大象传媒 that Russia had been forced to redeploy some troops there from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
鈥淚f you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,鈥 he said.
鈥淭hat means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.鈥
This incursion is extremely unlikely to be Ukraine looking to occupy Russian territory, but if pulling in Russian forces was a goal, it is quickly being realised.
Recent history could be playing a role too. Russia launched a major cross-border offensive of its own into Ukraine鈥檚 north-eastern Kharkiv region.
The advance seems to have slowed after the US gave Ukraine permission to use its missiles on targets inside Russia.
Ukrainian fears of a similar attack into the northern Sumy region have been mounting in the subsequent three months.
Given constant Western worries of the war escalating, it鈥檚 likely some sort of permission was granted for an operation of this size on Russian soil.
In general, very few senior Ukrainian figures are saying much about this attack.
The president's office told us: 鈥淣o comment, yet."
While similar incursions have happened before, it is the first time regular Ukrainian forces have been used in this way.
Where there is much more chatter, is across the border.
Russian military channels were quick to report the assault involving hundreds of troops and several rocket and drone attacks.
Local officials were also swift in announcing casualties and evacuations. Neighbouring regions expressed a willingness to accept those forced from their homes.
A state of emergency has been declared there as well.
Russia鈥檚 Defence Ministry even admitted troops were being redeployed in the direction of Sudzha, a town in the Kursk region.
At the top of the food chain there was Vladimir Putin being publicly briefed by his security chiefs. His Foreign Ministry spokesperson called the attack 鈥渂arbaric鈥 and 鈥渢errorist鈥.
It was a Russian response which suggested it had been blindsided in a war of recent familiarity.
Until yesterday Russia had steadily been capturing territory while outnumbering Ukrainian forces.
Now it has something else to think about.
The assault is already being presented by the Kremlin as evidence as to why it should continue to wage its war - an invasion it still frames as 鈥渄efensive鈥.
鈥淭here are more questions than answers from events in the Kursk region,鈥 suggests Military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov.
Clearly for Ukraine, if it stalls or even prevents Russia from mounting a major attack in its north, it will see this operation as worth it.
鈥淭he more pressure is exerted on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine,鈥 said President Zelensky in his evening address, 鈥淭he closer peace will be.鈥
鈥淛ust peace through just force.鈥
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