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Opinion poll suggests most Afghans relatively hopeful about future
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A national opinion poll in Afghanistan suggests most Afghans
remain relatively hopeful about the future, supportive of the presence
of overseas troops and of the Afghan government, and resolutely opposed
to the return of the Taleban.
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But the results also point to increasing frustration at the slow pace of
the process of reconstruction in Afghanistan, and its failure to deliver
more and better security and access to food, water and electricity.
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Analysed by region, the figures indicate that the greatest levels of
satisfaction with the current situation are to be found in the more
peaceful north, and the greatest dissatisfaction in the south-west,
where British forces are based and where the Taleban are most active.
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Overall, however, the figures suggest that, in spite of another year of
conflict in the country, confidence and hope in the future have not been
significantly dented in the 12 months since the last comparable survey.
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However, where there are changes from last time, they are usually in a
negative direction.
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The poll was commissioned by the ´óÏó´«Ã½, ABC News and ARD of Germany.
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It
was conducted by Charney Research of New York. Ìý
The fieldwork was
carried out by the Afghan Centre for Social and Opinion Research in
Kabul.
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Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 1,377 Afghans in all of
the country's 34 provinces between 28 October and 7 November 2007.
The margin of error is + or - 3%.
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This is the third such poll in the country, following the first news-sponsored survey ever conducted in Afghanistan at the end of 2005, and a
second at the end of 2006.
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This week sees the sixth anniversary of the
fall of the Taleban.
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Selected findings, with 2006 figures in brackets where the same
questions were asked:
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Fifty-six per cent said security issues and the activities of the Taleban were the
biggest problems facing the country (57%).
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Fifty-four per cent of those questioned said that the country was generally going in the
right direction (55%), 50% said things would be better, or much better,
in a year's time (54%) and 51% thought their children would have a
better life than themselves.
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Asked about conditions in their own neighbourhoods, 70% said living
conditions were good or very good (76%), and 66% said security was good
or very good (69%).
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Availability of the following was rated bad or very bad –
Jobs: 73% (66%)
Clean water: 46% (46%)
Electricity: 84% (78%)
Food: 33% (18%)
Schools: 29% (27%)
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There is broad support for the performance of the Karzai government: 59%
saying it is doing a good or excellent job (63%) with 63% approval for
President Karzai himself (67%) and 43% for the United States forces.
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This
latter shows a marked fall from 57% in 2006 and 68% in 2005.
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Seventy-five per cent of those questioned still
believe the military intervention to bring down the Taleban in 2001
was a mostly good, or very good, thing, but again that is down from 88%
last time.
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Seventy-one per cent support the US military presence now (78%) and 67% support the
presence of NATO, including British, forces (78%).
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Seventeen per cent believe attacks on US forces can be justified (13%) while 74%
disagree (78%).
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For troops from other countries, the equivalent figures
are 17% and 77% (no 2006 figures).
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Forty-two per cent think US troops should remain in the country until security is
restored (55%).
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There is condemnation of Pakistan, with 69% of those surveyed saying it is allowing the
Taleban to operate within its borders.
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Asked who they would like to see in power, 84% say the present
government (88%) and only 4% the Taleban.
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The Taleban are named by 52%
as the biggest danger to the country (57%) followed by drug traffickers
at 23% (20%).
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But 42% think the Taleban have grown stronger in the
past year, against 24% saying their power has waned.
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And 60% want the government do a deal with the Taleban to bring about
peace, while 32% want to continue to resist them.
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Sixty-two per cent think the growing of poppies for opium is unacceptable in all cases
(58%), with 84% saying the government should destroy the poppy fields.
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Regional variations
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Comparing the figures for the south-west (which includes Helmand
Province where British troops are concentrated) with the overall
findings, it is clear that the situation there is more difficult.
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Because of the sample size, it is advisable to look for trends from
these figures rather than percentages.
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By comparison to the national
findings, these figures suggest there has been an increase in
support for, or tolerance of, the Taleban, and a fall in the number of
people who think that they pose the biggest danger to the country.
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While there is a fall in support for the NATO/British presence and an
increase in those who believe that attacks on them can be justified
these are still minority opinions.
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But confidence in the ability of
the Karzai government to provide security and stability locally has not
fallen from a figure of around two-thirds last time, and fewer people in
the region name security from crime as the biggest priority for the
country.
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PR
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