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Global poll: Declining support for tough measures against Iran's nuclear programme
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Support for tough measures against Iran's nuclear programme has fallen in 13 out of 21 countries, suggests a new 大象传媒 World Service poll.
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Compared to results from a June 2006 大象传媒 World Service poll, support for economic sanctions or military strikes has declined significantly, including in countries that were previously among the highest supporters of tough action.
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Support for these measures has dropped 10 points in Australia (52% to 42 %), nine points in Britain (43% to 34%), nine points in Germany (46% to 37%), seven points in Canada (52% to 45%), six points in the United States (66% to 60%) and 30 points in Mexico (46% to 16%).
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Only three countries show an increase in support for economic sanctions or military strikes: an increase of nine points among Israelis (62% to 71%), six points among South Koreans (47% to 53%), and 12 points among Turkish respondents (21% to 33%).
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Most interviews were conducted following the release of the US National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran had stopped pursuing nuclear weapons in 2003.
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Across all 31 countries surveyed in the latest poll (the 21 tracking countries plus an additional 10 countries polled for the first time), most respondents oppose the use of economic sanctions or military strikes.
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Respondents were presented four options that the UN Security Council could use to address the fact that Iran continues to produce nuclear fuel in defiance of the UN Security Council resolution.
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The options of economic sanctions or military strikes were rejected in 27 out of 31 countries. Instead, the most preferred approaches are to either use only diplomatic efforts or not pressure Iran at all.
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On average 57% favour diplomacy (43%) or no pressure on Iran (14%). Just one in three favour economic sanctions (26%) or military strikes (8%).
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The poll also found that there are conditions under which many people would be willing to accept Iran having a limited capacity to produce nuclear fuel.
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The question asked: "If Iran were to allow UN inspectors permanent and full access throughout Iran, to make sure it is not developing nuclear weapons, do you think Iran should or should not be allowed to produce nuclear fuel for producing electricity?"
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In 17 of the 31 countries more people favour than oppose the idea, while in 10 countries more are opposed and four countries are divided.
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Support is fairly strong in some of the countries in the forefront of the drive to stop Iran's nuclear programme, including the US (55%), Britain (71%) and France (56%). On average 47% are in favour while 36% are opposed.
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The results are drawn from a survey of 32,039 adult citizens across 31 countries conducted for the 大象传媒 World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between 31 October 2007 and 25 January 2008.
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Steven Kull, Director of PIPA, comments: "It appears that people in many countries are interested in ramping down the confrontation with Iran, while still using UN inspectors to ensure that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons."
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Participating countries
- Argentina
- Australia
- Canada
- Central America*
- Chile
- China
- Egypt
- France
- Germany
- Ghana
- Great Britain
- India
- Indonesia
- Israel
- Italy
- Japan
- Kenya
- Mexico
- Nigeria
- Philippines
- Portugal
- Russia
- South Korea
- Spain
- Turkey
- United States
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*Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama
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Note: In Chile, China, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, Portugal, Turkey and the countries of Central America urban samples were used. Please contact 大象传媒 World Service Press Office for details.
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Detailed findings
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In three countries a majority today favours economic sanctions or military strikes to deal with Iran.
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These include Israel (sanctions 37%, strikes 34%), the United States (sanctions 45%, strikes 15%) and South Korea (sanctions 48%, strikes 5%). Canadians are divided between a strong approach (sanctions 35%, strikes 10%) and softer approaches (diplomacy 42%, no pressure 6%).
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In all other countries, the weight of opinion is towards the less aggressive measures of using only diplomatic efforts or not pressuring Iran at all.
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Support for allowing Iran to produce nuclear fuel for electricity, alongside a full programme of UN inspections, is found not only in the US (55%), Britain (71%), and France (56%), but also among Egyptians (86%), Mexicans (79%), Australians (64%), Portuguese (59%), Canadians (58%), Italians (58%), Kenyans (56%), Indonesians (56%) and Chinese (51%).
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More modest support is found in Spain (49%), Ghana (45%), Nigeria (46%) and Russia (33%).
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Majorities oppose the idea in Israel (62%), Philippines (60%), Turkey (54%), Japan (54%) and South Korea (51%). Half of Germans are opposed as are 38% of Central Americans.
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Indians, Argentinians and Chileans are divided, with large numbers not providing an answer.
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In total 32,039 citizens in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, El Salvador, France, Ghana, Germany, Great Britain, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between 31 October 2007 and 25 January 2008.
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Polling was conducted for the 大象传媒 World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners in each country.
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In 13 of the 31 countries, the sample was limited to major urban areas. The margin of error per country ranges from +/-2.4 to 4.4%.
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For more details visit www.globescan.com or www.worldpublicopinion.org.
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Notes to Editors
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Further detailed information about the poll is available to the media from the 大象传媒 World Service Press Office.
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大象传媒 World Service Press Office
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