大象传媒

Starting with the relationship between Putin and Medvedev Martin Sixsmith reviews the dichotomy of Russian history: "on the one hand, tantalising hints of democracy and freedom; on the other, hard-bitten conviction that Russia needs strong centralized power to rule her unruly lands." Medvedev has questioned Putin's 'managed democracy' but has failed to free the legislature from the state, and there have been few improvements in Russia's human rights record. His role in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia reveals, Sixsmith argues, "the reflexes of an autocrat ... If Medvedev is a liberal, his reformist instincts seem to be curbed by his Prime Minister, Putin, whom most Russians continue to regard as the real leader of the country." So if Russia's past experiments with democracy all ended in failure, what of her prospects now?

Sixsmith notices a recurrent pattern: nearly every attempt at reform has come from 'above;' all have been motivated by an immediate threat to autocracy. The revolution 'from below' in February 1917 was quickly hijacked by the idealist despots of Leninist socialism, another form of autocracy that lasted for 74 years. Gorbachev's Glasnost taught the Russian people to have their own opinions and in 1991 it was the people who demanded freedom and democracy - a tectonic shift that opened up new possibilities for the future. But instead of prosperity and freedom, Russia got economic meltdown, crime and ethnic strife. The reassertion of autocracy was carried out with the approval of the people, not imposed on them, and the governments of Putin and of Putin-Medvedev are genuinely popular. Sixsmith questions why liberalism always fails and ends suggesting, "Could it be that centripetal Russia really can be ruled only by the fist of centralized autocracy?"

Producers: Adam Fowler & Anna Scott-Brown
A Ladbroke Production for 大象传媒 Radio 4.