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UKIP have put concerns about Romanian crime back in the news. Tim Harford investigates whether the statistics they're quoting are accurate. And what about the broader point - is it true that Romanians are responsible for more crime than other nationalities?

We discuss a famous probability puzzle involving goats and game shows with German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Is he right to suggest in his new book 'Risk Savvy' that we really don't understand risk and uncertainty.

Is it true, as our listeners heard on the Today programme, that globally 24,000 people die every year from lightning strikes?

More or Less listeners also test their analytical abilities on another problem - how old will you be before you're guaranteed to celebrate a major, round-number birthday (like 40 or 50) on a weekend?

And is the divorce rate in the US state of Maine linked to margarine consumption? It sounds ridiculous, but you might be tempted to believe it if you saw the graphs side by side. It's one of many pairs of statistics featured on the 'Spurious Correlations' website started recently by Tyler Vigen. We talk to him about some of the funniest correlations he's found and the serious point he's trying to make.