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Looks like I'll get in first for once, maybe everyone else has gone off to vote.....

With another variable weather forecast, it looks like we could be waiting another few weeks to get answers to the 'who's fastest in the dry...' questions, especially with Monaco next week (that won't help answer many questions...)

I think it could be a close battle between Button & Alonso at the front, the Red Bulls didn't seem to be great in the wet at Shanghai...

So, more questions than answers again this weekend, and will we get to see the Michael Schumacher of old.....?

Someone with sense

Is it just me or is luck playing a bigger part this season? The timing of safety cars, when it rains, when you change tyres and so many other elements of luck.

Can`t wait for the lights to go out in spain with lewis leading

Yeah defo a lot of luck involved so far this season Red Bull unlucky not to have more points on the board Jenson lucky to have as many points as he has.
The best driving so far has been from Lewis just unlucky he has not won one yet. And Shumacher lucky to be given a seat at Mercedes after his very average performance.

Hmmm...who's been lucky, who's been unlucky, and what's luck?

Red Bull haven't been unlucky, their cars have been unreliable!

Ferrari's reliability hasn't been wonderful either...

Jenson hasn't been lucky, the second safety car in Shanghai wasn't good for him, and his calls on tyres have been very good, which has been a big factor in his two wins, staying out on slicks in Shanghai when others were changing to inters was a brave move, not a lucky one - when any driver changes tyres, its his/his team's choice, not luck, and with all the teams having weather monitoring systems, they should all no room to complain if they are 'caught out' by the weather - witness qualifying in Sepang, McLaren & Ferrari both held their hands up and said they made bad calls!

Lewis has been very fast at times, good to watch, making plenty of overtaking moves, but hasn't always made the best tyre choices (nothing to do with luck!)

Maybe Schumacher is lucky to have his drive, but various people within the Mercedes team are saying he is fantastic to work with (including Nico Rosberg), he may not be winning the races that so many people thought he would, but he brings a wealth of experience to the team that money can't buy...

I'm looking forward to this weekend with the promise of more variable weather....and then next week Monaco...bring it on!

Some one cleverer than me said " the harder i practice the luckier i get".

Red bull have been unreliable. Thats not unlucky thats because they're design is not the best compromise between pace and reliability (yet).

Jenson has used his experience and cool head to make the right decisions that have won him races. Again not luck. Being fast is not purely about pace, but about getting yourself in the right position by making the right decisions. The two Mclaren drivers are an excellent example of this.

Interesting blog Andrew, I’m really looking forward to this weeks Spanish GP. The weather forecast is showing heavy rain for Sundays race which is great, gonna be another action packed GP.

I’m loving the battle between Hamilton and Button, 2 amazing drivers at the top of their game, it’s like experience VS raw speed.

The battle between Alonso and Massa will develop well as the season progresses, the reason why Massa looks a lot slower than Alonso is because rain has effected 3 of the 4 races so far. I think Massa isn’t as competitive in the wet, anyone remember Silverstone 08’ lol.

It’s clear to me why Schumacher’s not performing as well as people expect, 1 reason is the car doesn’t suit his style and the other is the quality of drivers in this championship. If you look back at the mid 90s through to the mid noughties there wasn’t the talent we have today, before there were 1 or 2 drivers that could challenge him, now we have at least 8 drivers with the potential to win a championship. That includes his underrated teammate Rosberg and Kubica in the Renault.

Sometimes I am amazed at the headlines in the ´óÏó´«Ã½ website. "Mclaren target the front row on the grid".
Does that mean that Red Bull or Ferrari don't? What is the actual point of that headline? It's so ambiguous it's beyond belief.

#9 It might be because they have struggled on a Saturday? Also the pole sitter at Spain wins the race (Has been the case for about 9 years!)

Looking forward to the back to back as we all are. Rain might interfere again this weekend, makes for better races but difficult to predict.

I would also expect Lewis to win one of the next two but we will have to see how the cars perform after the updates.....

This blog like many others have jumped the gun when evaluating team drivers. Is this even the right time to start doing so? You state that we have had an "abnormal" 4 races so far so really it should be too early to tell who has the edge as the convictions are "abnormal"...you Brits always overhyping this or that driver (and the English national soccer team!) only to come up a cropper....patience the goose is only half cooked!

I find it a little peculiar that Merc are putting so many resources into Schumacher's racing comfort. Ross Brawn had always insisted at Ferrari that they would begin to support one driver when one was appearing the stronger championship challenger - which 'happened' to be Schumacher over and over. This time around it's Rosberg, but they're changing the car's characteristics to suit Schumacher?

#6 "Jenson hasn't been lucky, the second safety car in Shanghai wasn't good for him, and his calls on tyres have been very good, which has been a big factor in his two wins, staying out on slicks in Shanghai when others were changing to inters was a brave move, not a lucky one"

Yeah it was a brave move it was also a gamble there is no way he knew what was going to happen with the weather. He is not doing an in depth study into barometric pressure when he is doing 200mph. Im sure the mclaren pit wall are though and if you have got 2 cars at the front and you are not really sure which way the weather is gonna go. You would leave one car on slicks and put one on inters.
Hence an element of LUCK is involved.

"F1 set for fascinating weekend in Spain"

You keep telling us F1 is fascinating (as the F1 web team does for every grand prix enmasse)- when you try so hard to convince people of this you start to wonder if is true. If it has been so fascinating why do you need to keep telling us? Couldn't be anything to do with the beeb having spent so much money on what could turn out to be a ropey product sold at an over-inflated price by the super-rich whilst other key services within the ´óÏó´«Ã½ remit face the axe?

PS I'm an F1 fan but all these protestations of 'interestingess' are crazy.

"Yet it was fascinating to note that when Hamilton finally got into second place to Button in China, on a wet track that some might have expected to favour Hamilton, in a straight fight on equal terms Button actually pulled away."

Can't say I agree with this statement. If anything, Hamilton was catching upto Button before backing off. Even then, Button made a mistake, and it brough Hamilton right upto him by the finish.

Plus I'm sure we both agree, had Hamilton been higher up after the safety car, we'd likely have had a different winner to the race. Button had better judgement, but he certainly wasn't faster on track.

They say that you should wait at least until the fifth match of the championship before one evaluates a football team at the start of the season.
Of course this is formula one but likewise one should wait at least until Monaco before making any such predictions. Unless it’s a two car contest from the same team like last year.
Usually these first races are to make contact, sort of speak, with the pitch, the cars, the playing ground, the team work, the adrenaline et all. This year even more so as the winter test were shorter. There’s plenty of unpredictability in any race, weather, track conditions, lottery with the cars, etc. and on the opening races this is more evident. That’s why usually the significant upgrades in the cars are brought once we are back in Europe, because there’s more information about what’s needed.
Well, in spite of all this, the drivers still have got to deliver, to overcome the difficulties, to adapt to what’s needed in that particular race or track.
Sometimes luck plays its part too, that’s correct. However, there’s a pattern from those who come on top that cannot be put down to luck. There’s no luck in Jenson, Nico, Fernando and Lewis leading the table. You could argue that maybe others would be there also if… then… but in the end only the real champ material make it.
In other words, only those who manage to go through the adversities, (wrong tyres, car failures, rain, knocks and bumps, etc) are going to be there come the end of the season. It’s all very nice and easy to start on pole and cruise to the finish. But that seldom happens this season.
I’m not going to analyse that Vettel has made three poles out of four, that Button chooses his tyres like a taylor, that Hammy overtakes more cars than Valentino Rossi motorbikes or that Nico is in the top bunch in spite of driving an obvious inferior car.
What calls my attention is that none of them had to overcome so many adversities as Alonso.
After three horrendous starts, one DNF (he’s the only one of the lot who’s had a dnf), a good car but not necessarily the best, et all, he’s up there in third with the same points as Hamilton.
Furthermore, he’s showing great composure and maturity after the races. He explains in a simple way what went wrong, admits when he makes mistakes. Gone are the days when he would have a go at the team or other drivers. No moaning, no excuses.
This attitude above all, plus his ability to go round the problems, make him in my opinion the man to beat.

#13 I agree with you to a certain extent. You are probably right about the team tactic, but I wonder how it came about. Jenson is a smoother driver than Lewis and his car was obviously handling OK at the time the call to change to inters was made. The team always said it was Jenson's call to stay out on slicks, but I doubt it was as clear cut as that. After all, it appeared that Lewis DIDN'T have a choice - he was told to pit and he did so. Surely that would have been the case for Jenson as well. Everybody else was pitting. Lewis even complained on the team radio that it wasn't his decision.
Jenson and the team took a gamble on the weather and it worked, but it WAS a gamble - Jenson is a driver, not a meteorologist! If the rain had come in again as predicted it could have easily caught him out half way around the lap.
That said (assuming he didn't drop it under braking on slicks) had it started raining again, he would at least have the opportunity to stop for inters later, because, as I mentioned earlier, his car was OK on slicks on that track at that time, and that's all he could work with. Don't forget, to Jenson, the track would have appeared to be improving, whatever the weather radar said. If you look at it like that, Jenson's move wasn't so much genious as obvious: he and the team needed to do something different to win. If it had rained again, he would be back in the pack, where he would have been any way had he joined the queue for inters in the pit lane.
To sum it up for Jenson: Do the same as everybody else and don't win. Gamble and have a chance at winning.

That's my 2 penneth...

Biscuter, it's hard to argue that Alonso is the man to beat. If I had to pick a WDC right now, I'd go for him.

However, this analysis is rather at odds with your first two paragraphs, where you point out that it's far too early to judge!

I think Hamilton will win in Barcelona if it rains unless of course, Button is in front. I think Mclaren called on Hamilton to back off in China hence he came second. But by and large, I am really happy to see Button win those races even though I am a Hamilton fan. Its good for Mclaren and I think either of them stand a chance to win the championship this year.

There are three priorities for any blogger, Speculation, Speculation and Speculation.

Nice piece a good read.

#9 - Lorus59 I'm sometimes amazed by the ridiculous comments people put on this website. McClaren are targetting the front because they haven't managed it yet this season and of course Ferrari etc are targetting the front but that would make for a long title wouldn't it? Stop being so pedantic and READ the article!

Couldn't really call a spark plug failure and a wheel nut failure as normal reliability issues, definitely unusual and unfortunate. The RB6 is not a weak car but is very fast.
The start of the European races is going to be thrilling.
It will be nice though to see the fastest driver in the fastest car win.

he may not be winning the races that so many people thought he would, but he brings a wealth of experience to the team that money can't buy...
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errr, they HAVE bought it though.

Sometimes I am amazed at the headlines in the ´óÏó´«Ã½ website. "Mclaren target the front row on the grid".
Does that mean that Red Bull or Ferrari don't? What is the actual point of that headline? It's so ambiguous it's beyond belief.
----------
No, it means that McLaren were NOT targetting the front row before now, mainly because they didnt think they were fast enough to trade with the RBRs and Ferrari.

They say that you should wait at least until the fifth match of the championship before one evaluates a football team at the start of the season.
Of course this is formula one but likewise one should wait at least until Monaco before making any such predictions.
---------------
Hmm, 5th match or a 38 match season, that is 14%. 4th race of a 19 race season, that is 21%. Monaco would be 6 races, 31%. Try the maths before posting next time mate.

What calls my attention is that none of them had to overcome so many adversities as Alonso.
After three horrendous starts, one DNF (he’s the only one of the lot who’s had a dnf), a good car but not necessarily the best, et all, he’s up there in third with the same points as Hamilton.
---------
Remind me again what extra adversities Alonso has had to deal with compared to Hamilton? Especially as the Ferrari is acknowledged as the faster car.

After three horrendous starts, one DNF (he’s the only one of the lot who’s had a dnf)
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Vettel spinning out isn't a DNF then?

Hi, Guys.... One that's bugging me and I've probably missed the answer elsewhere.... but I thought that those white lines on the tarmac indicated the edge of the track? If this is the case, then surely Hamilton and (now famously) Alonso each gained an advantage by going off the racetrack on their way into the pits? I must be wrong, but I'd like to know why. Thanks in advance.

On Schumacher, yes, the cars have changed and, yes, there are a host of fast, younger drivers around, but also don't forget that when he arrived at Ferrari, the car/team was not working well - and it took a few years to get up to speed and then win multiple championships.
Key to that process was, surely, the massive amounts of testing miles, put in by Schumacher, Irvine, Barichello and Badoer, making full use of their own test track. Advanced simulators can only do so much and I am guessing that he is missing the real miles on the track - and, I assume, Rosberg likes the car set-up as is and isn't too worried about the lack of testing time.
Given this situation, I reckon it could take him a full season to be really up to speed - and then that begs the question as to Mercedes' willingness to live with that, especially when there a number of other German F1 drivers around ...

It is amazing that we see hamilton close on Button and then I do believe that Mclaren called him to back off

Massa does not have to prove that he deserves equal treatment to Alonso, those rights form part of the sport's code of conduct, at least in theory. It is true that Ferrari with Schumacher or Renault with Alonso did not provide equal treatment to both team members, but that does not entitle Ferrari to do so again even though this article seems to be justifying just that.

It always interests me that the only time that Massa looks alive and racy is when Alonso is gaining on him, or trying to take a position away.

I didn't think McLaren ordered Lewis back off. He had destroyed his tyres and Jenson was pulled away to nine seconds until his front wheels lock.

Simple as that.

#12 like you, keep wondering why no-one else is talking about what Mercedes are doing?

Rosberg is a serious contender for the championship. He might not win many (or any) races, but always gets his car to the end. With so many fighting for wins, regular podiums could put him in a strong position. Will Mercedes jeopardise this by changing the car to suit Schumi, or decide to go with Rosberg as their best placed driver?

Is Rosberg the Prost on the grid surrounded by a bunch of Sennas?

Red bull have had an unrealiable car, not an unlucky one...
Button has been cunning, not lucky.

I believe Mercedes are hoping to have the Vettel - Schumacher driver lineup next season, they want to keep Schumacher for several reasons on and off the track. They never expected the results to swing Rosbergs way and if it continues to do so it would put them in an awkward position towards the end of the season.

The solution is to change how the car works to suit Schumacher, they will be hoping Schumacher out-scores his teammate. This way they can justify kicking out Rosberg for Vettel rather than getting rid of Schumacher.

Button lucky?

Yeah, I think so but his luck as been calculated by experience and as they say in sport "you make your own luck". There have been plenty of people in these forums who wrote Button off as a poor excuse of a driver compared with Hamilton. Undoubtedly Hamilton is the better 'racer' but theres far more subtle traits to an F1 pilot than just being quick. Button has made the right calls at the right time, yes, there is an element of luck, but there is also an even bigger element of competency.

Button nurses his tyres which is down to a smooth driving style. He also has an extremely balanced temperament and is one of the best athletes on the grid. He may not retain his title over the season, but no one can realistically argue that he hasn't upped his game(I tipped Alonso before the season start, and I'm sticking with it though its not looking so great!).

Certianly though if the Frome Flyer keeps focused and has a competitive car he is more than capable of taking it. Will be happy if he does...

hackerjack



There has been several DNF so far this season: Vettel, Buemi, De la Rosa, Kobayashi, Petrov, etc. But among those drivers on the top three places which I was referring to, (Button, Rosberg, Alonso and Hamilton), only Alonso.
I regret that I did not make myself clear enough for you to understand it.

The football example was just that, a simil. Not an exposure for any mathematical thesis.

No, I don't think Hamilton has encountered as many adversities as Alonso so far. I’m sure that you could work this one out.

But I suppose all of this would be debatable, which assuming that you are the type who picks on anything, would certainly please you enormously.

I leave it at that.

I fail why bloggers and ´óÏó´«Ã½ F1 crew has a strange bias towards certain drivers...It understandable towards Button and Hamilton for obvious reasons...

From the races we have seen it is clear the duel between Massa and ALonso is revving up but its not done yet...Alonso got the better in Bahrain (felipe qualified better & had engine heating problems)...the reverse happened in Australia...felipe messed up in China...malyasia was a team blunder..

It surprises me that when alonso can risk a pit lane move why dint he try a pass in australia...dont tell me overtaking is difficult in f1.we all know it is...

How is it that when Alonso is beaten its Alonso's mistake and when Felipe is passed its the greatness of Alonso..Be fair guys..

Felipe has not matched Alonso on raw pace..evident from qualifying..but lets not forget felipe is the guy who lost the championship by 1 point to lewis ( ´óÏó´«Ã½'s fav f1 child) courtesy Timo Glock..Felipe had more wins than Hamilton that season if you recall..

and I don't think Alonso need any pref or team orders yet..the championship is wide open...

Will u then agree that Mercedes have to push Nico as Michael doesn seem to get it right yet ??

Tomorrow (May 8th) at about 1.53 pm will mark the 28th anniversary of the death of the great Gilles Villeneuve.

It would be a nice gesture if the ´óÏó´«Ã½ commentary team could get round to marking the occasion in some small way. Please.

hamillton beat massa thanks to timo glock ...did you not watch ?
glock stayed out and gambled ...and won ! he improved his position

hamilton stopped for tyres and lost ground , the fact that he was able to overtake glock was purely due to the fact that he had wet tyres and glock was trying to stay on the track with dry tyres ; if the rain hadn;t come he would have been champion by a bigger margin !

It's pretty silly how much better red bull have been than anyone else not just this season but most of last season. I find it difficult to take F1 seriously when drivers like Webber can get better results than far superior drivers like alonso and hamilton.

As #39 points out, how can you say that it was Alonso's fault that he was behind Massa and then criticise Massa for not being quick enough?

It's like saying "My football team was clearly the better side, they just scored less goals than the opposition....."
A football match is won by scoring more goals than you concede.

Pedal-to-the-metal in the same car, even I would stand a pretty good chance of being "intrinsically quicker" than Alonso or Massa if I didn't use the brakes. I wouldn't get round the first corner, but could still claim to be "intrinsically quicker".

This race can only be interesting in wet weather or changeable conditions. A less than exhilarating circuit coupled with the drivers knowing every inch of the circuit due to the amount of winter testing here. If it is dry, I can't see anyone but either of the Red Bull cars winning, and if forced to choose one driver, Vettel. Tips for a wet race, Lewis or Jenson.

A reply to comment no.43

I do think that you have a very good point. I do get a little exasperated when drivers who aren't that brilliant (obviously this is in comparison with other F1 drivers, not couch potatoes such as my self) get better results than the best, e.g. Riccardo Patrese beating Ayrton Senna and Schumacher for second position in 1992. Not wanting to do a 'James Hunt' and berate Patrese, but he was not in the same league as Schumacher and nowhere near Senna.

On the other hand, having the best drivers in the best cars would be difficult to achieve and perhaps kill the entertainment element of the sport for good, just as the sport recovers from its mid-2000's slump.