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The bears are loose

  • Tim Weber
  • 23 Jan 08, 09:30 AM

"Boy, do we have a lot to talk about," were the opening words of Michael Elliott, editor of Time International and chair of the session on the state of the global economy.

So what did we hear? To sum it up in a few words: the bears are loose.

In financial market speak, bears are economic pessimists.

And this morning, nearly every speaker was deeply concerned about the state of the global economy.

We won't see a global recession, everybody agreed, but if the panellists were right, then the United States and - to a lesser extent - Europe are in for a really rough ride.

The world's poor, meanwhile, will have to brace themselves for sharply rising food prices. Good news for farmers, not so good news for the rest of the developing world.

Hold on to your seats.

Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 10:28 AM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Martin wrote:


This is a good news story. Rising food prices should mean that the hard working taxpayers throughout the world don't have to support the farming sector as we have for the past 30 years. Mind you I'm still planning on going out to Australia when I retire, I'm going to buy a big drought stricken property and then put my hand out for as many Government subsidies, relief funding and restructuring subsidies as I can!

  • 2.
  • At 10:44 AM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Mike Dixon wrote:

All the world has been borrowing money but using the credit in markedly different ways. The United States and the U.K. has been spending, spending, spending. Continental Europe and China have been investing, investing, investing. Simplistic but fundimental in facing a global slowdown. No prizes for guessing who is better placed to ride out the storm which is already here.

  • 3.
  • At 12:18 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Matti Kohonen wrote:

The world economy is in for a rough ride indeed, but it's precisely the "queuing millionaires" at Davos who've made this situation as it is. They hold their money offshore, as a staggering 11.5 billion USD is held offshore (about one tenth of the world's private wealth). This money offshore pays no tax (the Davos attendees in general fail to pay tax), and Switzerland where the meeting is held is a tax haven where failing to pay tax abroad is not considered a crime. So bring on the proceeds of tax evasion to switzerland.

This total disregard for the rule of law in the global economy meant that the famous Hedge Funds who were selling the sub-prime investments onwards are primarily located in Caymans, Bermuda, Jersey and other notorious and completely secretive tax havens where tax inspectors, criminal investigators or just banking regulators have no access to.

So the rich in Davos have made the mess, and then don't know what to do about it other than declare that the "bears" have come in the markets. Well thanks! Time to end the party, time to blog something else than Davos.

  • 4.
  • At 12:22 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Kirsteen Fraser wrote:

The world's poor, meanwhile, will have to brace themselves for sharply rising food prices. Good news for farmers, not so good news for the rest of the developing world.

How exactly would rising food prices be good for Farmers? The reason food prices are rising are because of increased transport costs and other overheads. Once farmers have apid off that there is not much left for them after supermarkets have taken their slice!

  • 5.
  • At 12:25 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Steve Hammond wrote:

From food to medical to energy, prices are now at the peak. You can raise them all you want but the poor can't buy. We have become evil starving the poor so a few can live high. A very evil world...indeed.

  • 6.
  • At 01:06 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • simon barfield wrote:

you journalistic types have been talking us into a bear market for the last year at least.. i suppose it makes a better story.. but now you got what you wanted.. but only a recession not a depression.. you must be disappointed.

  • 7.
  • At 02:23 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • Penny Kenyanjui wrote:

They aren't that worried over a
recession folks; the worry you see
is congruent with a Depression...
it will be called the Greater.

I think deep down everyone knew this would be coming one day, with the price rises in Fuel, energy, taxes, food, education over the last few years, I'm surprised they have only just brought up recession, or at least accepted its possibility

I feel sorry for the poor, as yet again they end up worse off because of the people at the top. I think it鈥檚 a disgrace and a very scary bleak future lies ahead for many.

But its ok, we all have iPod's to listen to, oh but we cant afford the power to charge them.....

  • 9.
  • At 02:39 PM on 23 Jan 2008,
  • houghty wrote:

Food prices are rising for the following reason (i.e. nothing to do with transport costs):

Use of food for biofuel

Increase in developing world wealth (and eating)

Incresed meat eating in China and other countries (where this is considered a status symbol),
I can't remeber the figures but it takes roughly 10 times the amount of grain to produce a comparable amount of meat.

Simple. If you don't believe this, just looking at the following:
and look at wheat prices (Hint: are all of these commodities moving in line with oil?)

Also soft commodoties have been in a bear market for the last twenty years and have just started to rise.

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