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Re-arranging the 'furniture'

  • Brian Taylor
  • 24 Apr 07, 06:15 PM

So how鈥檚 the government getting on during this election? Not the Big One in Westminster 鈥 but the domestic version here in Scotland.

What do you mean, you thought the government was out on the hustings trying to hold on to seats?

I mean the permanent government. Her Majesty鈥檚 loyal civil service in the Scottish Executive

They鈥檝e been decidedly busy. Quietly running the country while their elected bosses are kept occupied in the minor matter of convincing the voters.

Oh, stop it, Brian. You鈥檝e been watching too many reruns of 鈥淵es, Minister鈥.

Absolutely seriously, the executive civil servants are in purdah - barred from influencing the election in any way. No news releases. No statements. No new ad campaigns.

However, that doesn鈥檛 mean they put their considerable brains in neutral. Scotland must be governed, domestically. That means the civil servants must prepare for whatever the electorate delivers.

Consequently, they have been busy - seriously, very busy - scrutinising the various parties鈥 policies. Assessing and costing them. Looking for early signs of cross-over which might facilitate coalition.

They are also readying themselves for the negotiations which will be needed. Of course, they prepare for all eventualities.

All parties are equal in official eyes. But, realistically, some options are more equal than others.

In 鈥99 and 鈥03, it was reasonable to prepare most assiduously for a Labour/LibDem coalition.

This time round, my guess would be that other combinations might be on the civil service cards.

Remember that, to govern, a politician has to be elected first minister by the new members of the Scottish Parliament. (Strictly, that election is to nominate a recommended candidate to the Palace: HM the Queen appoints.)

To achieve that status, the favoured candidate must be able to win more votes than the alternatives.

Note that鈥檚 not simply the biggest number of votes - you鈥檇 get that by leading the largest party.

The winner needs to get more votes than all the others put together.

It鈥檚 like musical chairs. If that outcome isn鈥檛 generated by the first vote in Parliament, then the bottom contender drops out - and the vote is held again, iteratively, until an overall winner emerges.

That means the winner needs to assemble a coalition, at least for that day - unless, of course, their own party has an overall majority by itself.

Think, finally, of this. If Holyrood fails to appoint a first minister within 28 days of the election, then Scotland has to go to the polls all over again. Fun, eh?

Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 10:17 PM on 24 Apr 2007,
  • angela wrote:

Brian,

whilst re-arranging some things in my house I came across a box of forgotten videos. When I went throught to check what was on it and found a rather slimmer Brian Taylor from 1988 doing the local election results - you were just as slim as Alex Salmond in those days!

  • 2.
  • At 11:33 PM on 24 Apr 2007,
  • Bob wrote:

You're not quite right that a coalition is required. The winner simply has to have more than half of the votes of those voting. Therefore in a contest between two candidates, one must be elected first minister. If there was a contest between the SNP and Labour with SNP being the bigger but not having a majority in Parliament, the SNP's candidate would win if all the small parties sat on their hands. Labour could circumvent this though by withdrawing their candidate. Parliament would then be presented with a choice of accepting or refusing the SNP candidate.

A difficulty for a minority government is getting the first minister's candidates for ministerial posts accepted. Parliament gets to vote on these too.

The presiding officer recommends to the Queen for appointment the person Parliament has chosen to nominate as first minister. So a possibly (not very?) interesting point: The convention is that the Queen always accepts the advice of her ministers. What happens if one of her (London) ministers advises the Queen to reject the presiding officer's nomination for first minister?

  • 3.
  • At 12:51 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Iain More wrote:

You mean that Nicol and Jack could contrive to scupper Alex and we would have to have another election - and keep having them till Nicol and Jack were happy with the result!
You could get wendied several more times then!
I hope for your sake that this does not happen as I do not bear you any ill will! Or is this your way of getting a salary rise - danger money!

  • 4.
  • At 12:54 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Harry Shanks wrote:

Yes very good Brian. Does anybody honestly believe that the Civil Service is not involved, albeit indirectly, in politicking?

I have been waiting for 4 weeks now for a reply from a senior civil servant in the Health Dept. regarding a contract. All has gone quiet in this election period.

Co-incidence? Ha!

  • 5.
  • At 03:48 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Janet Shirlaw wrote:

All the more reason to vote for education and against nationalism in the first place then?

We will need 28 days for the Lib Dems to waken up. Nichol's deal with labour would not just be bad for Scotland but a disaster for the libdems, north and south of the border. At least have a party special conference to debate and decide before making such a disasterous decision. Or is Nichol frightened of this vote too?

  • 7.
  • At 08:39 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Peter, Fife wrote:

I鈥檓 only glad your title did not reference those often misused words 鈥榯he deckchairs on the Titanic,鈥 I feel we residents of Scotland who have the vote should be more positive about the outcome.

Labour and SNP seem to offer the realistic options, to form a coalition with the Liberals? This is the only realistic chance the Liberals have to gain any control of power.

Labour/Liberal: 鈥榯hings can only get better,鈥 their Manifesto offers little change from a First Minister who displayed his lack of knowledge of the Council Tax on Monday鈥檚 TV interview; merely tinkering with their policies, more of the same.

SNP/Liberal: Offers positive changes from an untried administration; no different from Labour/Liberal facing their first administration.

It should be clear to free thinking voters that one of the main parties is promoting an agenda for the First Minister, Scotland and the next Parliament where the other is mainly attacking the former and his/their policies.

Jack McConnell/ should realise that what is happening is not a love affair with the SNP; it is a clear indication of a rejection of his and his party鈥檚 policies which are positively identified with the current maladministration of Scotland.

As with the Westminster Conservative leader鈥檚 continual attack on the Labour Chancellor, I feel the attacks on Alex Salmond and the SNP by the Scottish Labour Party and their English imports a clear indication of fear; fear of removal from power in Scotland and fear of removal from power in Westminster, which could possibility result from a knock on effect at the next General Election.

Those potential problems for Labour both at Holyrood and Westminster were flagged up when Willie Rennie upset the Labour apple cart in February of 2006; more importantly this brought the first clear indication that Labour鈥檚 complacency towards Scottish constituencies should have become a thing of the past for both new and old Labour.
Nevertheless all we have evidence of are of heads buried firmly in the sand; Labour鈥檚 offer of little or no change could possibly be because changes in their policies would be an admission that they have operated incorrect agendas for the past few years. The message that such acts of unchanged policies provide to the majority of Scottish voters is they are not either adult or politically or fiscally educated enough to know what is best for them.

Either way we should all vote on the policies on offer, not headline figures produced as scare tactics, we should ask for details of the calculations from which these headline figures are reputedly based.

  • 8.
  • At 09:57 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Peter, Fife wrote:

Civil Servants are human beings, yes, you heard it here first; whilst the brief of the Civil Service is based on impartiality, each individual is blessed with equal individuality as do the rest of us; such individual make up equally delivers the potential to be blessed with a full listing of human foibles.

Are we expected to believe that Civil Servants have no favourites?
Are we expected to believe that Civil Servant will not vote as this would be an indicator bias towards a particular party?

These two examples, although comprehensive are the acceptable sides of bias within the Civil Service, what is not acceptable is manipulating any situation for a gain or of a 鈥榖lind鈥 defence of the status quo; most commonly this is displayed in their defence of what they perceive as 'their system.鈥

Any new administration will face resistance to change from all levels within the Civil Service; many Civil Servants will try to take advantage of a new administration to right their perceived wrongs of previous administrations; this is partly seen as a test of the resolve of new Ministers and partly an attempt to reverse any erosion of conditions of employment.

There have been many official 鈥榗hange programs鈥 that have been introduced in the Civil Service, these have had little success and receive most resistance from all levels within the Civil Service. Resistance is most commonly displayed by the grade is most affected by any proposed change, with indifference displayed from those who are unaffected by any proposed change; the main danger arises from proposed change which affects all grades.

It is our right to be delivered of a Civil Service that is fit for the twenty first century.

  • 9.
  • At 10:34 AM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Dick wrote:

Hmmmm. I think that if the SNP won the most seats and Labour/LibDems tried to conspire against them to prevent either Alex Salmond being First Minister or the SNP leading the Executive then we should call on the United Nations to adjudicate because this would demonstrate that democracy here is as dead as it is in Zimbabwe.

  • 10.
  • At 02:33 PM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • PMK wrote:

All the more reason to vote the current bunch of war-mongers out; and vote in a party of the centre-left (the SNP). Janet, your point on education - I am a student, I will be stuck with 拢11,000 debt after I complete my finals this May. Why should I pay for what Messrs McConnell, Blair and Brown (with his 'student parasite' guide) got for free? What right do they have to withdraw cash from the nation's account for their education, then tell me it is all gone?

Bigger numbers in Uni - yes. But they knew where this led when they were trumpeting 50% +; they should have told everyone of the cost then. That is why applications from the poorest communities are dropping so significantly,

"Scottish Labour - undermining social mobility!"

  • 11.
  • At 07:57 PM on 25 Apr 2007,
  • Cam3 wrote:

nah - I voted for 'Education Education Education' before - Jack was right up there?

What did I get? Lower School-score card rates, fiercely rising levels of crime, and cathy Jamieson.

Not voting for nationalism. Voting for the Scottish 'National' Party.

i.e. a party that exists to help Scotland - and not through London say-so on everything that matters.

  • 12.
  • At 02:34 AM on 27 Apr 2007,
  • Sid wrote:

You are wrong Brian, the civil service are DIRECTLY involved, for example, they are busy putting up ad campaign posters urging voters to go out and vote.
WHY?Its my democratic right not to vote if i don't find any candidate appealing?
The same posters also have, "vote, for the sake of your childrens future education" written on them....hmmmm now where have i heard that slogan before???oh..yes...its the headline policy of those same civil service personnels employers...the labour partys executive....what a strange coincidence.

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