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Afternoon John. Whilst I find Sevens thoroughly entertaining, I'm not sure about your prediction about it outstripping fifteens, not in my lifetime anyway!

Maybe it just the fact that, last year(?) aside with Wales becoming Sevens World Champs, our home nations just haven't been that good at Sevens and therefore very little public interest has been paid to it?

Or maybe we're just all purists at heart and like a slow rumble through the mud to the line for a push-over try?

Everyone will have their own reasons but for me this is the same as T20 v Test cricket. It's an entertaining snap shot of the real thing, but it's just not the real thing. I enjoy our slow, methodical sports that take time to reach a climax, we don't always need to rush things.
Cheers

if you're looking for popularity it's about finding the optimal timeframe and optimal ratio of goals/tries/points ie balance. If something is too free-scoring, then people value only the important points. Take tennis, only important or particularly good shots keep the tension up. Rugby stands out when it is in balance, not too defence or attack-oriented, thus the refereeing laws are more important to rugby's commercial appeal. 7's is essentially rugby lite. It has to be short to ensure it is tight, but you also have to have a tournament to make it work which means a long day (like cricket). For sevens to take on the degree of poularity that you are asking for, tournaments would have to be curtailed to about 2 hours

John,whilst I enjoy watching (and I enjoyed playing) sevens, I cannot see this shortened version of our game ever outstripping the fifteens game; not now, not ever.

Fifteens are a thing of beauty, and I'm one fan who thoroughly enjoys the fully staffed versions of scrums and line-outs and all of the gamesmanship that goes on within these set pieces.

I've come to view fifteens as the hard cover-edition of our game, while I view sevens as the paper-back edition.

I foresee a protracted legal battle as the front row union takes this all the way to the European court of Justice

Rugby 7's will never outstrip 15's. It's beauty as a marketing tool is precisely why it will never assume the summit: it is accesible to those masses who are not familiar with the intricacies of rugby because it lacks them, therefore it will never be accepted as a substitute for the real thing by core rugby fans. And, frankly, as soon as a sports governing body starts listening to short-termist, mass-marketing theory whilst turning it's back on it's core fans then it is doomed (see twenty:20 which - I hope, and actually think - will be all but dead within the decade).

....why should we constantly pander to those with short attention spans? Why does rugby need to grow? If it is at the expense of bastardizing the sport I love into some pale, simplistic alternative then I'd rather just accept that rugby union will never dominate the world and get on with it.

Ever considered playing rugby 10's( 5 forwards + 5backs)?

I've played 15's and 7's and enjoyed both. However, having played 10-a-side, I can honestly say I thought it offered just the right balance between the two other extremes. Entertaining to watch too.

bluesbluesblues thats not true at all. England have better win records against NZ, Samoa, Fiji and Australia in last two years - thats pretty good dont you think? In fact they have always been top northern hemisphere team every year by quite a margin.

An interesting idea. Like others who posted, I prefer Tests over T20, and 15-a-side over Sevens, but you may be right. Less focus on traditional technique, and more bit-sized chunks is definitely what appeals to a younger audience. Maybe the Six Nations will become the Six-Sevens by 2030...

Stoopy, my knowledge of Sevens history is obviously hazy at best and I was trying to understand why it's still so poorly followed in comparison to fifteens without having to 'wikipedia' it. Now I have though, last 10 seasons of IRB Sevens World Series all had SH champs, as have 3 out of the last 5 World Cups so I'm not clear what's 'not true at all' about the home nations not being all that good.

John,

Usually your posts are both thought provoking and well founded

But 7 man rugby to replace 15 you have lost the plot

How long can you expect a 7's match to last

Ten minutes each way max , so who is going to travel and fill a stadium and make a weekend of it for that

The IRB sevens are great but play to half empty stadiums and only last a weekend and in truth only have a third of the total games as competitive

Are you suggesting that a sevens six nations could ever be more popular than the current six nations set up

Where as the 6 nations tournament is the envy of the world as both a competition and a commercial gold mine (ask the Southern Hemisphere teams they are jealous of it)

and even more so with Friday night and Saturday night games still selling out and getting top telly money

Its like trying to replace test cricket with twenty twenty

It makes it quick exciting and appeals to people who don't normally watch or attend

But it's not the real game

Sevens has it's place as a pre season warm up and the Irb circuit looks great fun and goes to exotic places but rarely fills grounds

However I would concede that it is a far more open competition with the likes of Samoa Argentina Fiji Wales and even England winning tournaments and Kenya Canada USA Portugal Russia all having an impact

And even though I admit the sight of Andrew Turnbell jinking through the English defence gets me out of my seat

Is it as good as the Toony flip

The Stanger try (knock on in goal)

Calders shoulder charge on Staples

The mass of bodies in the mud when Ducan Hodge scored

sevens or fifteens ???

sometimes more is more

USA - I recently started to watch Rugby(in any form), Sevens World Series, when Samoa won it this year. I must say, that Rugby is not foreign here in America, but it's on the bottom of the list in popularity. Popular in the World but not here. That being said, the sevens format is growing here. Why? 1A) Lots of Scoring - Foremost reason 1B) Physical and exciting with the 'long bomb' that can occur at any time. 2) It's an explosion of action in a 14 - min period. The 15 rugby format is too chaotic for the average american fan because of it's association with American Football. American football format is very structured and strategically organzied. American Football is #1 sport because of it's physical nature, speed of the game, and the excitement of scoring....and thats just for the casual fan. Because the Sevens format shares those three qualities with american football, it will explode here. For the first time ever, the College Sevens Championship game was aired on Prime time NATIONALLY, signifying its progressional climp to popularity. If the olympic committee accepted the sevens form in the 2012 olympics, it would explode soon thereafter. I'm sure the average Rugby 15 format fan can say the same thing about Rugby, Physical, scoring, speed. Bc of american football structure, the american fan will lose interest bc of it's unstructed nature, in relation to American football, and duration of the game. Sevens is the perfect introduction to America. It's easy to 'eye' the strategy of the game, not a lot of contact but a lot of speed. It's the next big thing here, just like MMA.

USA - I recently started to watch Rugby(in any form), Sevens World Series, when Samoa won it this year. I must say, that Rugby is not foreign here in America, but it's on the bottom of the list in popularity. Popular in the World but not here. That being said, the sevens format is growing here. Why? 1A) Lots of Scoring - Foremost reason 1B) Physical and exciting with the 'long bomb' that can occur at any time. 2) It's an explosion of action in a 14 - min period. The 15 rugby format is too chaotic for the average american fan because of it's association with American Football. American football format is very structured and strategically organized. American Football is the #1 sport here because of it's physical nature, speed of the game, and the excitement of scoring....and thats just for the casual fan. Because the Sevens format shares those three qualities with american football, it will explode here. I'm sure the 15 format rugby fan can say the same thing about its sport, but to the american audience, 1) 14-15 is too many bodies on a side 2) which creates more chaos due to its 3)unstructured (in relation to American Football)nature. Because of those reasons, the american audience will not watch the game, let alone a whole game. For the first time ever, the College Sevens Championship game was aired on Prime time NATIONALLY, signifying its progressional climb to popularity. If the olympic committee accepted the sevens form in the 2012 olympics, it would explode soon thereafter here in america. I only speak in terms of the American Audience and it's acceptance of the Sevens format over the 15.

sevens is brilliant, no doubt about it. Its great to watch and easier to organise than xv's. The fact remains however that sevens is a simple game, a limited game. It serves a great purpose for developing raw skills in young players and attracting new fans to the sport.

Rugby has been so successful since professionalism because the product,i.e the game, is strong. Nothing that happens can make the product of sevens rugby as appealing as that of xv's.

#BluesBluesBlues
Totally agree with you!

A lot of the comments that have been written are written by people who know and love the game of Rugby Union (15s). However there is 1 very salient comment from the chap in the US which stated that the game of rugby is too chaotic but 7s is a lot more palatable.This in my view exactly states why 7s will gradually overtake 15s because of the way it includes more people because of the relative simplicity of the game.

Youngsters today need things in small bit sized chunks and 7s fits the bill. Why do you think that 20/20 is so popular! (YES - I AM GETTING OLD!)

My prediction for the top 10 in no particular order in 2040

Russia, USA, New Zealand, England, South Africa, Germany, Kenya, Canada, France and Poland.

The US was in there!

China I don't think will ever get there - they will always struggle in the same way that Japan does.

Here's a challenge for you - The Great British Bike Ride in 2011. Lands End to Twickenham in 4 days - 340 miles.

Thanks guys for not taking offense about my comments towards the game you all love. There are a couple more factors why Sevens will boom here in the US. As stated earlier, foremost it has the same qualities that fans love about football (Speed, Scoring, Physical), so transistion to Sevens is seemless. Couple that with smaller time frames which translates to 'faster turnover '...meaning..u get to see 16 teams play over a weekend and the champ is annouced on the third day...as oppose 4-6 months with most team sports. In the US, they're are so many marketing ploys out here so it's hard to grab the attention of the american audience unless it's for a short duration. Football qualities and duration of the sevens game are the two main factors. I'm a student of the game and very passionate about football, so Im pretty in tune with the overall Football market which is why i know with Certainty, Sevens will be one of the Top sports in America. It all starts with youth programs. More and more kids are opting to play Sevens than Football. As a parent, It is much safer than Football. So you can get all the excitement as you do from football, but with very little risk which football carries a lot of. More and more, the NFL, NCAA, High School, are changing the rules for more safety bc football is a collision sport. So as a parent, you want very little risk but huge rewards. Sevens is perfect. I will be purchasing a Sevens Franchise (as the NFL) once, the Sevens Rugby League opens. Hopefully it opens soon.

When Rugby 7's was admitted into the Olympics I thought it one of the greatest days in rugby's history. I'm a 15's man through and through, but now kids in china and the USA along with many more nations will be handed a rugby ball and taught how to score tries. That is surely much better for the 15 man game too.

I never showed much interest in Cricket, then I got into it slightly when T20 came around, now I think 5 day tests are so much more compelling. Wouldn't have happened without the shorter quicker version.

Of course 15's will never be replaced by 7's- how could it be?- but it will be boosted by it, and John is right, 7's has the potential to outstrip 15's in that it can be a bigger participation sport.

Why refer to Samoa as another "lowly ranked" country in Sevens comparable to India and Namibia? Samoa won the recent IRB Sevens World Series AND beat Gordon Tietjens' New Zealand squad SIX times in a row (yes, an unprecedented six times). Also, Samoa is ranked higher than Australia in the Commonwealth Games pools (NZ tops Pool A). Thought I would assist by setting the record straight.

I can see sevens growing in popularity amongst clubs as it offers an option (the the amateur club player) to play rugby with, I suspect a lessened chance of serious injury and all that entails in time-off, lost earnings etc. It's doubtful though that it would ever replace 15 and side in the hearts of real fans.

As we're also doing a bit of partisan reminiscing...my favourite 7's game was the world cup final at Murrayfield between England and Australia. Partly because that strutting show-pony David Campese was made to look daft. Partly because of the efforts of unknown players such as the young Lawrence Dallaglio. Partly because an England rugby team was captained by a black player for the first (and only??) time. But mostly because of the fun of watching all those nice educated, normally respectable Edinburgh folk going bugged-eyed and screaming their hatred from the stands as England, as underdogs, pulled off a memorable win. A world cup and and a disappointed Scotsman...what more could chap ask for?

7's is a fantastic game to watch - If you haven't been to a world series event, I would recomend you try and make it to Murrayfield or Twickenham this season. But it isn't 15's.

The 6 Nations is one of the best sporting competitions in the world - there are no 'dead rubbers' as with other competitions because of the familiarity between the teams, and therefore the desire to get on over you'r rivals. Add to that, the average attendance at the 2010 6 Nations was over 70,000 (I don't think there is any competition, in any sport, that can claim to beat that?). Think how much a 6N's ticket will cost you - £60 for a top ticket at Murrayfield is cheap in comparrison. Ireland was 75 Euro's last season (100 this).

A full house at Murrayfield in the 6N's will easilly bring in more than £2M. For one game - so we can expect (bare minimum) £30M from ticket sales alone, before taking into account the millions teams make from shirt/pitchside sponsorship, or the (again, millions) tournament sponsorship and telly rights. How much do RBS pay to have their name attached to the 6 Nations?

I just don't see how rugby sevens can even bring in that sort of cash - it's a good day out, but would people really pay £60+ for it?

And that's before you even mention the other tournaments - I would imagine the RWC, the tri-nations, the Heineken Cup, the Super 15, the Aviva Premiership, the Magners League and the Top 14 all make more money than the sevens world series. Another comparrison for you - the last RWC had a total attendance of over 2,260,000. I can't find figures for the last RWC7's, but it would have been physically impossible to be any more than 200,000.

Money talks in professional rugby, and money is the reason that the 15 a side game will also be the top of the sport.

The best thing about these blogs of yours is that they always promote a sensible question that encourages debate. You never find John talking about minor insignificant points and neither does he leave us artilces with stereotypical, overarching 'everyone knows' stories and opinions. Always great to see.
Sevens is indeed a great form of the game and is particulalry refreshing when the modern full 15 contest is determined by the almost unreal size of the players. Sevens is about jinking speed and ridiciculous sprinters' endurance, and endurance in a different manner to 15s. It also encourages attacking, passing and handling skills.
I believe it offers the opportunity to many players who couldn't quite make it to have a career. If there were sevens leagues at town and village club level, I for one would still be playing rugby. As a young lad I was tall for my age and played second row. Trouble was I didn't grow again and remained a little under 6'2 - far too short for a second row, far too skinny for any other forward role, and simply not good enough with my hands to be a back. Also, I didn't want to take rugby all that seriously as I was never really that good! I did, however play for the sevens side and felt that my all round athleticism made it such an enjoyable version of the game. I could be one of the glory men at last - even convert my own tries! After a long time without playing, I've been meaning to get back into rugby for some time, but I am a musician and a writer and everyone warns me that I'll break my fingers/ hands etc etc and, on the occasions I do watch lower level rugby I see friends and relatives often sustaining the type of annoying (yet barely painfull) injuries that would jeapordise my gigs! Now, I'm not saying that sevens is without its dangers, but there are a lot less situations where oen would find themeslves getting stamped on/ lain on for ten minutes while the fat propr tries to get up, only to find that your prop is on top of him, someone else is on top of him and you are at the bottom with your arm bent backwards and your knee around your ear. I used to relish such situations, especially in the rain and mud when you'd barely see the ball, but I just can't be doing with it anymore! I'm sure many people are in the same boat.
It goes along with what you said about having a kick about. With football, it's easy, you can even do it by yourself with a wall and a football. (this is much harder with a rugby ball...and people may assume you're mad) If my friend and I take the rugby ball up the common for a spin, it is a lot more paintstaking and annoying than kicking the football around the park. He is also a musician and former rugby player who is a frustrated egg chaser like I. Sevens would offer the opportunity to play and open, expansive, but short game in which you won't get crushed and worry that you won't be able to pull off that trademark guitar solo on the next mini tour of London....
I do realise I'm rambling here, but there's a point there somewhere!
I don't believe that sevens will ever overtake the full 15 game. The drama is simply not there, the epic human endurance also. The crowd love a battering and rucks, well driven malls and scrums. It is not like 20/20 in cricket in that respect, but it does offer something different. Many people are put off rugby by what they see as confusing rules (it's true that if you haven't been bought up playing or knowing the rules then it is difficult to grasp them - remember the beeb telling us in the corner of the screen what penalties etc were given for) Rugby still suffers in the popularity stakes. I live in Newcastle and a little over 5000 turned up to see us beat Wasps at Kingston Park on Friday, whereas 50,000 turned up to see the toon get turned over by Blackpool.
Sevens should be used a marketign tool to get people involved in Rugby and to broaden its fanbase and horizon. Thereafter it could be like the five-a-side leagues are at local leisure centres for footballers - for all those that never made it and don't want to risk their necks in the Sunday league!
Keep up the good work, John!

John - Look at

It was done in September! I didn't quite finish it this year - tearing my quad on the 2nd day.

Great camaraderie. Great people - look at

Unbelievable what these 3 women did. Really worth having a look.

7's+10's is the purest form of the game.
15's is just an allowance for the fatties.

John your point about 7's being used as a good marketing tool for rugby in general is a very valid and good point. It will certainly arouse interest in the sport as Tag Rugby does as well. However surely this will lead to people turning from the dilutes versions as they crave the full strength XVs game. This being the case, as I believe it is, the XV aside game will benefit and continue to outstrip it's weaker but very attractive little siblings.

Why not reduce to 13 players...been done and it works !!

I don't think 7's will ever replace 15 a side for the same reason that 5 a side football will never replace the 11 a side game as the main attraction. Why? I think the ease of scoring (in either game)tends to devalue the significance of a try or a goal. It becomes less exciting because it doesn't mean so much.

Hi John,

I agree that 7's should be the marketing tool for rugby in the future. A great many people see it as a 'new' sport, fun, fresh, and exciting and I think that the authorities in UK rugby unions need to look at it in a new, more positive light.

Anything that promotes the great game, in whatever format, should be whole-heartedly encouraged.

SC

"7s will one day outstrip 15's" NO IT WON'T

USA --- Have you all seen the IRB article "Sevens enjoys more record broadcast figures"? I don't know much of 15 rugby, but speaking purely from a statistical point of view, USA, CHINA, JAPAN, and INDIA,three of these coutries are top three in population; all four of these countries are the Top four Economies in the World! It so happens, that Sevens Rugby is gaining popularity , in record setting fashion, within these four coutries. So mathematically, Population and economic might of these countries will set Sevens above 15 Rugby. I don't need to know anything about 15 rugby, I just know that Sevens is exciting to watch..me and everyone else in these countries. So to go from high flying, high scoring in sevens form to slow moving, low scoring (relative to Sevens), complicated and 'chaotic' rugby form in 15's, I can reasonably assume with a high degree of certainty, Fans in these 'emerging markets' will not transition over to 15's. So to suggest that Sevens is a 'marketing tool' for the 'real rugby' in 15's (placing a temporary connotation on the sevens game) is logical but fails to support given the subtle and insightful factors aforementioned. American Football failed in Europe because the game is too complicated for fans who are use too Soccer. BBall is a hit in Europe and other Coutries b/c of it's simplicity, excitment due to lots of SCORING. So coming from a person who loves American football, I can say, American football is only for Americans. Meaning, only those who has been exposed to the sport all their lives will enjoy that sport. So most of you here grew up with rugby so naturally you enjoy 15's. For those that have not, the simplified version is very easy to accept. To move to 15's, will be a 'step down' for the new emerging market fans. Sevens will one day 'outstrip 15's.

I agree, sevens will one day become more popular than XV.

I've been braying before about sevens not having the drawbacks of XV. Collapsed scrums, defensive shutouts etc... My uncle went to watch Edinburgh Rugby vs Munster for the first time recently and found it to be very boring.

He then went to watch his son play rugby for StewMel for the first time and loved the match because there were runners and missed tackles everywhere. Enough to make you miss the Barbarians.

Referees tend to have better games because the rules are easier to police, requires a less demanding attention span, with less players at the breakdown.

Results are usually always fair and it is an eternal running/ passing game. The purest form of rugby.

BTW I think this is going to be a painful season for the Scottish teams, but I don't imagine either Glasgow or Edinburgh will be allowed to build strong squads until the SRU debt is cleared. Which in 10 years we shoul be grateful for, if not right now.

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I agree with you 100% John and would go further.
As the American contributor points out 7's rugby is perfect for American audiences especially in my opinion TV viewers who may not have seen the game before. It is a more physical version of Basketball with 2 extra players and a bigger area.

As a NZer and All Black supporter I can see the day (maybe 20 years time)when the best players are selected for 7's and the rest fight for a 15's contract. Though most likely they will be playing in lucrative professional 7'competitions in USA or Russia / China / Japan etc

It will grow 15's but 7's will grow exponentially in new markets like USA,Russia Europe Africa and asia. There will be new 7's versions of the 6Nations and 3 Nations but in these new countries. Anyone who has seen the way a country like Kenya or Somoa with such tiny resources can compete in this form of the game can see potential for great interest in every country to feel they have a chance. I can't think of any other major team sports (football, basketbal etc) that that offer this for smaller countries. It is exciting and just requires some imagination to
see the benefits for both codes of rugby. I think as big business realise the marketing opportunities money will flow into 7's in a way 15's could not imagine. This will begin probably once the Olympics showcase this sport.

John - It is on! 2011 - Already taking registrations.

If you have a look at the website - There will be a button to register interest. Best person to talk to though would be Barry Clayton who is the organiser.

Well worth it - Although Cornwall is either 40mph downhill or 3mph uphill

John, i enjoyed the essence of your article very much - that 7 a side rugby makes it possible to play casual rugby as park football is played; anywhere and with minimal equipment.

This mass ease of participation has made football the global sport and I think that for rugby to challenge as a global leader it also needs to change. But I dont beleive 7's to be the answer. Firstly casual rugby would have to be non contact - i cant imagine the lads going out and battering each other. Secondly 7's is complicated to a non rugby mind, this contrasts with football being relativly easy to understand (apart from the off side rule!)

My proposal: a massivly simplified game of rugby - non contact touch rugby. And now look how far we've come from the joys of 15 a side......