Is Bercow being nosed out in race for Speaker?
I get the impression from talking to MPs on Thursday that the Speakership may be slipping away from the maverick Conservative MP John Bercow.
On Monday I certainly felt he was the frontrunner, simply because he had the backing of so many Labour MPs. Mr Bercow's support within his own party is tiny - just Julian Lewis, Lee Scott and Charles Walker.
Over the last few days it appears that Margaret Beckett has built up a lot of support, especially among Labour MPs.
Mr Bercow has not impressed people at the various hustings meetings, and it worries some MPs that he does not have genuine cross-party backing.
On the other hand, it would be pretty unusual for a candidate to make the transition from government to the Speakership with hardly any gap in between.
Of course, past Speakers have previously held high office - including both George Thomas and Selwyn Lloyd in modern times, but they were both elected Speaker after many years on the backbenches.
If Mrs Beckett is elected it would be just a fortnight after she resigned as housing minister, having failed to persuade Prime Minister Gordon Brown that she should have a place back in Cabinet.
As Mr Bercow's chances seem to have fallen, those of Sir George Young have risen.
After his wife Aurelia informed me yesterday that all four of their children were educated at comprehensive schools, a senior Conservative told me today that in the 1960s Sir George and Lady Young were "real flower-power people".
But it is still hard to see Labour MPs voting for an Old Etonian.
The other consideration for whoever wins on Monday, is the possibility they may not survive long and that MPs elected after the next election might insist on picking a new Speaker.
That means that whether they come from the Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat benches, the next Speaker is likely to be much tougher on the current government than Michael Martin was, if only to ensure his or her re-election as Speaker after the election.
I'm Michael Crick, and I'm Newsnight's political editor. My guiding rule is that in any story there's usually something the politicians would prefer the world not to know. My job is to find that out. Follow me on
Comment number 1.
At 18th Jun 2009, threnodio wrote:I realise how cynical this is but, surely when deciding whether or not to stand for Speaker, one thing of which a candidate would need to be confident is that they are not in line for a senior ministerial post in a future administration. This is not to belitle a very important job but would anyone risk exclusion from a future cabinet position to assume the role? This is why I am slightly bemused by Margaret Beckett's candidacy. Is she acknowledging that her days on the front benches are well and truly over or is this an admission that Labour do not have a snowball's hope in hell of winning the next election?
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Comment number 2.
At 19th Jun 2009, MarcusAureliusII wrote:There's only one person in all of Britain who has the strength and will to control that bag of howling monkeys and that's "boomin' Betty" Boothroyd. All three major parties should petition her to come out of retirement and take up where she left off. "Awda! Awda! We'd all like to hear what the Prime Rib has to say to you pile of smashed potatoes.
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Comment number 3.
At 19th Jun 2009, JunkkMale wrote:Nice to see our country's 'democratic process' in action.
Mrs. Beckett now seemingly anointed by the 'system', and the heck with those who are subject to the whims of another self-interested shower this so-called non-partisan role is supposed to oversee.
From Whips telling the in-theory representatives of our will in Parliament how to vote, to influential (well, those with a large audience gifted them) media commentators getting the message and trying to make sure all others get it too, it is hard to see how this latest farce is supposed to make the public trust and/or engage with yet another thoroughly compromised aspect of our political process.
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Comment number 4.
At 20th Jun 2009, flemingcrag wrote:If you can match any of the candidates for Speaker to the following profile: I stand for things in this place staying exactly as they always have been and will not tolerate change..You have the ideal candidate in perfect harmony with the will of the House.
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Comment number 5.
At 20th Jun 2009, stanilic wrote:As a constituent of the said Bercow who always takes half a page of A4 to sign his name, I have to express some delight that the Speaker's crown is moving away from him. If Bercow is the answer then I dread what the question might have been.
Bercow is a house flipper and a capital gains tax dodger and is wholly inappropriate as Speaker at this moment of the nations' history.
At least now we know why there has not been an active Labour party in the Buckingham constituency for some years now. At the last election the Labour candidate was a paper one and in the Winslow ward election to Bucks County Council there was no Labour candidate at all; even though UKIP seemed able to put up the inevitable blazer with the tediously matching grey trousers.
I think it is about time that the Buckingham Conservative Association put up an actual Tory candidate rather then someone who doesn't know what he is and has no clue as to where he is going.
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Comment number 6.
At 21st Jun 2009, JunkkMale wrote:D'Oh! I just got it...'nosed out':) Cruel.
I hope the case of her latest baskets will not unduly effect the 'secret' poll of an unbalanced community (in terms of composition, I mean... probably) we have no say in.
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Comment number 7.
At 21st Jun 2009, stanilic wrote:It would seem that the constituents of Mr. Bercow are having their opinions on their representative redacted by the establishment. No change there then.
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Comment number 8.
At 21st Jun 2009, Neal C wrote:Why a short article on the election of the Speaker of the House should contain 2 separate references to schools attended in the past seems odd.
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