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Further to my blog on the proposed AV referendum, I'm now told it is definitely happening, but it will require a formal announcement from Harriet Harman to go public on it. And Ms Harman is away at the moment.

This follows months of debate within government. A strong delegation of ministers were lobbying Prime Minister Gordon Brown over the summer to go even further, and hold the AV referendum this autumn, so that AV could actually be introduced in time for the next election.

Technically replacing a simple X on the ballot paper with 1,2,3 etc. does not require much of a change. There are no new boundaries and ballot papers would look much the same.

But then people in government looked at how Labour might fare under AV, and the figures weren't too helpful. In particular, I'm told that the chief whip examined what might happen in his own seat - Newcastle East - under AV, and didn't like what he saw.

As for what's being proposed now - legislation before the election to hold a referendum after the election - there are still several serious obstacles.

First the measure, which will be an amendment to the Constitutional Renewal Bill, will have to go through all its stages in both houses before next March.

Liberal Democrats tell me they would find it hard to oppose, even though AV is far from their cherished STV system of voting (which is genuinely more proportional).

But the legislative process has to be managed so that the bill doesn't get kyboshed when Mr Brown calls the election and lots of bills inevitably fall by the wayside. Not an easy process to manage.

And who will play a leading role in managing all that? The chief whip Nick Brown.

The notional figures for Mr Brown's seat is Newcastle Upon Tyne East, based on the result at the last election in 2005, but the new boundaries for the next election, are as follows:

Labour 17,588 (52.79%)
Liberal Democrat 10,601 (31.82%)
Conservative 4,344 (13.04%)
Other 787 (2.36%)
Maj. 6,987 (20.97%)

On those figures, one can see how Mr Brown might personally be very worried about AV.

One can assume, surely, that the vast majority of the second preferences of Conservative voters would switch to the Lib Dems.

So if one also allows for a substantial swing away from Labour since 2005, the Chief Whip's seat is a good example of a constituency Labour would retain under First Past the Post even in a really bad year, but which they might easily lose to the Lib Dems under the Alternative Vote.