´óÏó´«Ã½

It'll be interesting to see what tactics Brown and Cameron adopt with Clegg during the upcoming two debates. Last night they both began by sidelining him, trading blows with one another. They seriously underestimated him, but they won't make that mistake again. Will they try to emulate him, woo him as a potential 'king-maker' or deconstruct his policies in an attempt to undermine his popularity?

This is an interesting issue - how much of a surge in the polls would the Lib Dems actually need to have their share of the popular vote be reflected in their number of MPs?

The fact that they had about 20%+ in the previous election with only 10% of the seats is a clear demonstration of the flaws in the current electoral system. Reform to a proportional system is not a panacea for all our political woes, but it would be the single biggest leap towards egalitarian representation in the UK for decades.

OH FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!

Why 'black and asian'? What about Autistic? Very short. Very tall. Tourettes-afflicted - ALBINO?

YOU CAN'T REPRESENT ALL POSSIBLE CATEGORIES!

And even if you did, what is accomplished? While parties pre-select for AMORALITY and AMBITION, you will just get amoral, ambitious blacks and asians. BLOODY BRILLIANT. What are you using for thinking with Crikey?

ONLY selection for INTEGRITY (regardless of 'category') will ever get near to democracy. But while most of Britain thinks in the Crick manner (encouraged by edgy media) we are going nowhere.

I'm surprised you thought they'd lose seats.
I thought they'd have a bit of a complex picture losing seats to the conservatives but picking them up off labour and probably make a small gain.

I'm not really sure what I think the likely outcome of the election is. I can envisage a situation where Labour sneak back in but I can also see a bit of a Labour slump where they shift a fair number of seats (i.e. it feels kind of between 92 and 97 to me) to the Libdems, SNP & Plaid, and the Tories don't gain masses but enough for a working majority.

Labour still comfortably hold most the parliamentary seats in areas where they've lost councils to the Libdems, so there is clearly the scope for large shifts even if that is unlikely.

We need to see how the debate feeds through to the polls of the next few days.

"Will Lib Dems gain seats on strength of Clegg's performance?". Not as many as will be gained from "Take That"!

I hope you are right Michael, the dynamic behind Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems in stealing the Tories 'vote for change' rug from under their feet is compelling.

Anyone with even a very basic grasp of history can not fail to see that real change can not be offered by either of those parties and it is impossible to argue against effectively.

'' if you really want a vote for change Mr Cameron, I dont know how well they teach History at Eton but arn't you telling people to vote Liberal Democrat by adopting that phrase?''

That strategy has legs and will resonate with the population no matter what Labour or the Tories do. The tory campaign has been blindsided by this compelling dynamic at a time when everyone is fed up with' the establishment' primarily as represented by labour and the Tories.

I think they have enough momentum already and will do well enough out of the general disenchantment factor coupled with nick cleggs enhanced profile to secure a hung parliament.

Will Lib Dems gain seats on strength of Clegg's performance?

YES many, mostly from the Nasty Party

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I don't think so he reminds me of the nut on the doorstep trying to sell you double glazing....deliverence from evil...encyclopedias.....roof jobs....

Brown and Cameron major are gonna bash that Clegg kid at playtime...honestly

#10

They will try for sure but they will just end up looking spooked and trying to spin their way out of it which will do them no favours.

Everyone is sick of the establishment and their thinly veiled attempts at manipulating public opinion, yet that is the only way they know how to respond.

I have been doing quite well with rpredictions recently, I predict the more they attack the lib dems the more support for them will solidify.

Every tory campaign car says 'vote for change on it'.

After recent events they may as well rent them out to the Lib dems because people now percieve change as being embodied by the Lib dems not the tories with its eton educated leadership or New labour steeped in sleeze and governed by powerful non elected members like lord mandelson..

I am glad i got my bets on early now, the odds on lib dems polling more than 20% is now 4 to 9 on. It was 5 to 6 against when I invested in it several weeks ago.

But nobody ever listens to me:).

Pity

.

As a Liberal candidate in the Seventies we had the same surge with Jeremy Thorpe and later with David Steele. I was in the audience when the latter told us all to go back to our constituencies and prepare for government. Fat chance!

Sorry, but this is a rather familiar mid-election turn to the Liberals. It will fly for a few days until it returns to earth. Unless it is the final breaking of the mould of British politics?

The mood music is interesting though. It is apparent that Labour does not expect to win so is working for a hung parliament and the Tories thought they were a shoe-in for a majority. This tells us a lot about the private polling that the two main parties have been funding.

My guess is that Labour will lose votes to the Liberal Democrats but there is only one party that can kick Labour out so consequently regardless as to opinion polls a sufficient number of voters will put their mark beside the Tory candidate when in the election booth.

I am still amazed that Labour did not ditch the shameless Brown this time last year as they are now all tainted with his grotesque perceptions.

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Michael

Are you missing a big news story? Nick Robinson's blog taken off air by the ´óÏó´«Ã½?

It seems it is more likely than not no single party will have a majority - how about exploring some of the questions this raises in more depth?
When it comes to forming coalitions what are the likely parties (Lib Dems, DUP, SNP & PC) likely to ask for in exchange?
Will the Lib Dems be able to demand a referendum on the Single Transferable Vote?
Will the SNP & PC be able to bargain for setting their own taxes or a greater share of spending (a referendum on independence seems unlikely after the effects of the credit crunch)?
Would Clegg consider forming a coalition with Labour even though the Tories may have the largest share of the popular vote?
Is a hung parliament probable enough yet to warrant putting these questions to the parties involved?