G20: America's struggle to adapt as the world turns
Downtown Pittsburgh feels sleepy, even as thousands of diplomats and journalists turn up, like migrating Wildebeest, ready to stampede across the Allegheny and into town.
Sammy's Corned Beef joint full of seasoned barstool sitters, Hemingway's student bar - like a Methodist youth club with beer, even the nameless joint at the corner of a street with nameless wraith-like drug users hanging around just at the edge of the neon glow. The whole mid-western urban idyll is about to be broken by the arrival of the G20 herd.
There are so many answers being promoted this week you could be forgiven for asking "er, what was the question?"
It is only Tuesday and already a heavily hyped Middle East peace agreement has turned into a grouchy photo op.
Next Hu Jin-Tao announced a series of measures on climate change, hailed as China assuming "leadership" on global warming, but not very clearly taking the world towards a comprehensive agreement in Copenhagen.
In fact. not doing anything other than promising to grow carbon emissions less fast than the Chinese economy.
On top of that we now have Gordon Brown advising the Chinese on how to rebalance their economy. I look forward to reciprocal advice from President Hu on how we should rebalance ours.
So what's really going on? The dominant theme in all these narratives is the need for reciprocal, mutual and therefore multilateral action in the face of strategic problems in the world - climate change, poverty, trade, bank regulation, nuclear proliferation and Middle East peace.
Actually, the sheer volume of horse trading in the run up to this summit shows you these are all linked issues.
If there is one problem that recurs in all these initiatives it is this: the failure of the USA to adjust to a world order that is rapidly changing.
In economics, the Anglo Saxon model's prestige is battered. On climate change, action in the USA - after years of no action - is seen as the key to forward movement.
On trade, well the President signed the last G20 agreement - a moratorium on new protectionist measures - then placed new controls on Chinese tyres.
In the last few days I've been finding out just how hard it will be for President Obama to sell any multilateral action agreed at the G20 to the American people.
First there is the domestic right-wing backlash: it started over the bailouts, moved on to the fiscal stimulus and is now focused on healthcare reform.
From Washington's K-street this can look like the Republicans fragmenting, their popular base getting emotional and ruining the party's chances of forming a moderate electoral alliance at the next election.
But in Pittsburgh it does not look that way.
Obama's radical right-wing opponents are creating an emotional narrative which is becoming a dominant theme on the US news networks. It is, in the pop-psychology parlance, giving people "permission" to get angry about a lot of other things.
As a result the G20 will face a new kind of protester this week: conservatives who wish the G20 would stop doing things and who see multilateral action as a potential threat to American sovereignty.
Second there is the fragmentation of the electoral coalition that brought Obama to power.
He is trying to hold it all together - delivering an under-reported speech to the US trade unions last week clearly designed to boost his radical credentials there.
I've been meeting steel industry workers from Clairton, the setting for Michael Cimino's emblematic Nam-era film, The Deer Hunter. They are in no mood to accept multilateralism either on trade or carbon emissions. They want more trade barriers to protect jobs.
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As one put it: "Our plant has a raised a cancer hazard. You get up, go to work, pay your taxes and wonder all the time am I going to live very long after I retire. Will I get leukaemia? And all so that some other country can come along and dump a bunch of cheap steel onto our market?"
The workers I spoke to want any deal on carbon emissions explicitly linked to forcing producers in the developing world to raise environmental standards.
"They will fail," predicted one, triumphantly.
Third, crossing the electoral divide, is race. I keep asking people whether the issues like healthcare and tax and bailouts risk tearing America apart. The surprising thing is the number who say: "It's torn apart already, always was".
And when I probe further what they mean is over race.
Whether Jimmy Carter is right or not over the heckling of Obama, the wider fact remains that people are increasingly prepared to talk about a racial divide opening.
Add to that an incredible emotionalism. Okay, Brits are reserved. To me all US television looks needlessly emotional. But laying aside cultural differences there is a lot of emotion on US TV already and now you've got political movements, above all from the right, prepared to make politics more about emotion than it was.
Then, in a different reality, you get the patrician narrative. The reserved, statesmanlike politicians on the Hill; their reflections in the grey-hair-hosted political talk shows and the finely crafted statements of corporate leaders.
And then, below that, at the level of grass roots, you get a preparedness to emote, shout and scream. One right-wing activist - holding profound small-state and decentralising beliefs himself - complained to me off camera that too many people on all sides are beginning to fantasise about some kind of "showdown" in America, in which all the values of self reliance, states' rights and the right to use 9mm ammunition will combine into some kind of cathartic moment.
"People almost seem to want this to happen," he confided to me, genuinely worried.
Now all this is only "noise", and for the politicians noises off.
But I think in the USA, there is definitely an intensifying cultural conflict that is not reflected in the news but actually mediated via the news. People of different political persuasions increasingly live inside self-constructed media bubbles.
The strong standpoint taken by Fox - refusing to show the president's speech and in turn getting itself boycotted in Obama's latest round of Sunday interviews - countered by the recent rise of MSNBC, with its liberal ranters throwing invective at Obama's opponents.
This is the America I've traversed in the process of writing this. I'm in New York now, inside the UN building. Once the UN symbolised multilateralism, but the global crisis has forced the world's leaders to improvise something more useful for tactical intervention.
The explicit dream of politicians in Europe and America is that the G20 becomes a more permanent horse-trading forum, a kind of insecurity council, with a remit to try and forge deals beyond economic growth and trade.
The whole situation is a product of the grand, spatial forces that are shaping the world: the weakening of American power and the crisis of neo-liberalism, the rise of China, global warming.
What I'm watching - and what's about to descend on the residents of Pittsburgh - is a kind of rolling maul of the world's politicians trying to cope with this power vacuum and improvise new ways of dealing with it.
And outside the calm, air-conditioned UN - almost archaic-looking now, with its fifties era furniture and its media centre with only enough power points for a world where computers don't exist - outside this time capsule there is just this palpable emotionalism, for and against the American President, rising in intensity and leading who knows where?
TONIGHT: Watch my report from Clairton, Pennsylvania - how the real life steelworkers and Nam veterans from the town where the Deer Hunter was set see the G20.
Comment number 1.
At 22nd Sep 2009, barriesingleton wrote:THE PRODIGAL SON HAD BETTER NOT PROD TOO HARD
If Obama has not got permisssion from his prime funders to orate against settlements (for public consumption) and really thinks he means what he says, his coffers will be so empty, come election for a second term, no dissent elsewhere will matter.
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Comment number 2.
At 22nd Sep 2009, Chamfort wrote:Paul,
From Europe, I have a feeling that the US are going through a tremendous moral crisis - and this is a deeply moral country, on the right as on the left, even if the values don't quite coincide. I have come across a most interesting article in the LA Times, about people defaulting "strategically" on loans -
So far, whenever I have heard talks about "moral hazards" it was mostly about bankers gambling recklessly, knowing that they would be bailed out. It seems that the moral hazard has a far wider reach, and that a number of people are beginning to wonder why they would work hard and impoverish themselves to allow banks to replenish their pockets (as well as those of selected members of their staff).
It looks like the "Contrat Social" of Jean-Jacques Rousseau is under strain.
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Comment number 3.
At 22nd Sep 2009, GrouchoMarxist1 wrote:If fiction represents the fantasies of the society that produces it, then I think that are many who wish dramatic social change.
People have predicted a civil war in the US for years, but what's different this time is that you feel that there are people who are in well-established in the political class who would re-fight the civil war. The type of people that Newt Gingrich seemed to bring in with him.
I think that there is obviously a huge step between massive political controversy and the fragmentation of the state, and it's stupid to be hysterical or shrill, but public insults traded in the seat of representative democracy, well it reminds me of history books about the 1850s.
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Comment number 4.
At 23rd Sep 2009, bookhimdano wrote:...I look forward to reciprocal advice from President Hu on how we should rebalance ours...
yes.
..the Anglo Saxon model's ....
those who promoted the market fundamentalist model are neither anglo nor saxon? however the 'anglo saxon' politicians did adopt it and called it nu labour and whatnot.
...then placed new controls on Chinese tyres..
given the chinese do not float their currency and keep it artificially low to leach jobs and wealth away from the uk,usa etc there should be a tax on chinese goods to rebalance the chinese currency rigging.
..Once the UN symbolised multilateralism,..
it did? i thought it was a 'we won ww2 club'?
if one reads the violent hate towards creating the nhs in the uk then Obama can expect a magnified version in the usa?
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Comment number 5.
At 23rd Sep 2009, lvtlvt wrote:Another Tolkien reference: do you have a bet on?
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Comment number 6.
At 23rd Sep 2009, shireblogger wrote:What you describe sounds like a confused backlash. The political elites have been confounded by a generational crisis where accepted norms have be thrown down the pan. Capitalism has run amock and unholy compromise has been reached with the perpetrators to avoid a disaster. There's a stench of injustice. Fancy words but bonuses still get lavished around. Globalisation is poking itself in to the national psyche. No longer can people look to their national leaders for action - its seems to be reliant on some college of elites. Good oratory makes no real impact. A retreat to first principles - protect my job, look out for number one.
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Comment number 7.
At 23rd Sep 2009, stanilic wrote:It was an interesting report, Paul. It always fascinates me to see the wrong side of the tracks. The boarded up shops reminded me of the Eighties over here.
Talking about the Eighties; the ranting Right in the US now reminds me of the ranting Left in the UK after Maggie took over. Aren't all these doomsters cottoning onto the one thing that has actually happened; namely, the world has changed but they haven't? The idea that society will melt down into chaos now that their points of reference have dissolved was common to the UK Left in the Eighties and now seems common in the US Right now. The simple truth is that the government before Maggie was dreadful - despite the agreeable PM - and the government before Obama was even worse than dreadful.
Once we have had the General Election over here then the same psychological scenario will probably play out all over again in the UK.
The inevitable consequence of the traumatic events of the past two years will cause people to draw closer together. This will strengthen valuable social sentiments such as solidarity and communal values which will manifest first at the most mundane, local level. Future success will lie with the politician who picks up on this first and uses it.
The one thing you don't pick up on is the failure of the state both in the US under Bush and in the UK under Blair/Brown. This is not a Left/Right issue it is much broader than that. The truth is that people feel badly let down. People, like the steel workers, who have born the brunt of economic change for the last fifteen years, who never saw the boom that has now burst, have been abused by globalisation and now want the pain to stop.
There will be a resurgence of protectionism as how else are all these people going to get back into work? I bet it will be built around the concept of local supply chains which are not as environmentally damaging as global supply chains.
We have a long mental journey to make during which up will seem down and left will seem right.
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Comment number 8.
At 23rd Sep 2009, stayingcool wrote:What is amazing is that you live here and dont see what's bubbling up, but parachute into the US and come up with an instant analysis.
'People of different political persuasions increasingly live inside self-constructed media bubbles'???
How many Guardian readers would countenance reading the Daily Mail or vice versa. Or Newsnight readers listen to some of the so-considered 'low life' radio talk back shows?
You highlight a race divide in US, but you don't see the seething immigration issue here? Just because the ´óÏó´«Ã½ joins the political cabal in pretending there's no problem, doesnt mean there isn't one.
A bit more emotion here (and some preparedness from ´óÏó´«Ã½ to play its role re real issues) might mean we could have the necessary debates before it boils over into irrationality.
And as for the fulsome G20 agenda - nuclear weapons, climate change , Middle East - could and should have been dealt with over a long time - but they are all up front now - cover job, re banks and capitalist meltdown?
I refer you to Greg Palast's analysis of the G20 meeting.
He recognises that the banking issues are fundamental.
www.GregPalast.com
TIME TO CHANGE BERNANKE'S MEDICATION?
Secret White House letter to G-20
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