The beginning of a pandemic?
The now says it only a matter of time before the first cases of the new strain of are confirmed here.
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It feels as though the world could be on the brink of something momentous, but no one dare quite imagine that.
It was a little eerie yesterday, as everybody continued to go about their weekend, with the whispered threat of a flu pandemic in the background... The vibes from the experts aren't good. I spoke to Dr John MacCauley, a virologist at the .
His visions of a possible future are some of the darkest.
Remembering, of course, that there are always reasons why such "possible" scenarios might never play out, what he had to say after catching up with colleagues working on the new virus was unnerving. The fact that this virus is is what worries him.
"I suspect this is what the beginning of a pandemic looks like".
We discussed the - 1 to 6. The world is already sitting at threat level 3 as a result of the that we've come to know (sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but no sustained human-to-human transmission). Tomorrow, the WHO is expected to reassess that level, with the arrival of this Swine Flu virus.
At the weekend it was thought that might rise to 4, but Dr MacCauley thinks the world is already at 5 (human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region). Might sound technical, but what that actually means, according to the WHO check list, is a "".
Certainly, governments are beginning to react as if that's a possibility. Yesterday, the US mobilised a quarter of its stockpile of anti viral medicines. Dr MacCauley expects we'll do the same here soon.
He talks in unnerving terms about the numbers of "excess deaths". What does that mean?
"It could be anywhere between one million and 50 million. I couldn't really place it along that line."
His laboratory expects to receive samples tomorrow from the - so that it can create a swift diagnostic kit, learn more about the genetic make up of the new virus, and advise on a possible vaccine.
So are there reasons to be cheerful?
Some. The UK is home to some of the world's leading experts on influenza, and has one of the best pandemic preparedness plans in the world.
The virus appears to be causing only mild symptoms, so far, outside of Mexico. Some of us may have some protection from this new virus because similar H1N1 viruses have circulated in recent decades.
Comment number 1.
At 27th Apr 2009, streetphotobeing wrote:If this pans out where will it leave the economic situation ?
Id like to know the status and like at a hourly rate of the US cases.
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Comment number 2.
At 27th Apr 2009, earthgecko wrote:I personally believe when a pandemic arrives it will be social disintergration that will be the main threat and a more severe threat than the disease itself (possibly). There is a very good New Scientist article from last year - Will a pandemic bring down civilisation? -
My own feeling is that no government is prepared for a pandemic and it is naive to believe that any government could succesfully plan for the quarantining of the civilian population and also ensure all just in time deliveries are maintained for critical infrastructure services.
A pandemic will be chaos, because the world has not drilled any response. The best laid plans (without testing) often fail, Katrina, the bailout, etc. If the "plans" for the pandermic, don't exactly work out too well, how many people will die?
More of my thoughts on this on my blog - (if that is allowed)
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Comment number 3.
At 27th Apr 2009, nt10000 wrote:It's now way too late to contain this outbreak. Individuals and businesses need to use the time left to get at least the fundamentals of their business and home preparedness completed. The section of can help. You can also get your completed.
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Comment number 4.
At 27th Apr 2009, Y wrote:I think it will hit come when we see cases of swine flu here in the UK. I was shopping in Tesco this morning, and a young lady sneezed in the frozen food section, and the people next to her (including me) turned. It was completely stupid really.
What is important, is that dectection is speeded up. Hours not days. If confirmed cases appear else where, perhaps the Asian system were screening for fevers at airports should the implemented. It's good to know the Uk is well prepared, and its a world leader in this. But how is a vaccine made, and how long would it take? I have to say, i would be a bit worried if i was one of the first to take it, without knowing the side effects.
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Comment number 5.
At 28th Apr 2009, streetphotobeing wrote:"The virus appears to be causing only mild symptoms, so far, outside of Mexico. Some of us may have some protection from this new virus because similar H1N1 viruses have circulated in recent decades."
So far and in lieu of facts not known at the moment, I buy this one and Antivirals being administered asap else where more than numbers in Mexico.
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