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Are swine flu parties a good idea?

Susan Watts | 17:38 UK time, Tuesday, 30 June 2009

A lot of people have been asking me about "swine flu parties"... are they a good idea, or not?

Well at risk of giving credence to what is probably now more than an urban myth, the official line is a resounding "no, no, no - a very bad idea".

But let's look at the logic here.

From parents' point of view, perhaps with a couple of children in local schools, it might make sense that they would prefer their children to catch the virus now, when it is arguably easier to cope with than in the coming autumn and winter when it will certainly be more miserable to be ill; local healthcare resources are more likely to be swamped as numbers of infections rise; and the virus could have changed to become more dangerous.

And many experts agree that even if the virus alters between now and then, those who catch it earlier will develop some immunity to whatever comes later.

But these same experts are having to balance that narrow logic against broader public health concerns.

And on balance, they say, the greater public good still weighs heaviest.

They might concede that most children who catch H1N1 may get over it after just a couple of days of a slight fever, a sore throat and aches and pains - easily sorted out with a few doses of pain killers and some early nights.

But, for vulnerable groups flu is still a killer, and so is this new one.

Friends of those infected at a swine flu party might have asthma, or grandparents unlucky enough to catch the virus - even though their age groups has some immunity from similar viruses circulating a few decades ago.

And asthmatics and older people who DO catch this flu have a higher chance of a severe illness - and complications.

And by seeking out infection, rather than sticking to the wash your hands, "Catch it, Kill it, Bin it" routine, the fear is that the numbers of infections could, as one expert put it to me today "go large" over the summer .

Statistically, having a larger number of infections around raises the likelihood of seeing more really serious cases.

And that is what the government wants to avoid.

In fact Sir Liam Donaldson, the government's chief medical adviser, was candid last week when he said that the whole strategy of containing the spread in areas least affected, and managing it in areas with widespread transmission, is designed to buy time until there is a vaccine in place to boost the immunity of the rest of us - the "herd" - and dampen down the whole bell curve shape of this pandemic.

The driving thought here is that the fewer infections we see overall, the smaller the impact on public services, and the economy as a whole... and an NHS better able to help those with serious complications.

So whilst there is an inarguable internal logic to the position that for some individuals it might be better to catch this new flu now than later, it may not be better for the UK population as a whole.

And as for that logically-minded parent - perhaps it makes sense not to actively seek out infection (even if the mythical swine flu party actually exists), but instead to take news of cases at their child's school with a common sense shrug of the shoulders.

It might also help not to rush around demanding Tamiflu, the anti-viral drug, unless of course they have concerns about asthma or other long term conditions in their offspring.

This was underlined last night with reports that a patient in Denmark has developed resistance to Tamiflu. Though he has now fully recovered, this could mark the start of a significant change in the new H1N1 virus.

What happens in the next few days will be key.

This case could be a one-off, with no further cases in the community. Or, Danish authorities, who will by now no doubt be scrutinising patients closely, could report more cases.

In that situation we could be witnessing the beginning of what many scientists have long described as inevitable - the emergence of a Tamiflu-resistant strain of the 2009 pandemic virus, and the chance that it will become the dominant strain.

Of course this may not happen. Often in the past, viruses that develop resistance to Tamiflu have also been weaker specimens, fizzling out before they become widespread.

But last year a group of H1N1 viruses emerged that were not only resistant to Tamiflu, but showed no compromised abilities.

One interesting concern crossed my radar last night. I hear that Health Protection Agency staff are getting reports of "pack-splitting" of Tamiflu by parents at schools where the drug has been given out to classmates as a prophylaxis.

Hard to guess at the reasoning, but perhaps the aim was to treat two siblings, when only one was given a packet of the drug, or perhaps to treat a child with half the dose now, saving the rest for the winter months.

It is worrying the authorities because it is just the sort of approach that can allow resistance to Tamiflu to develop.

They still hope that we won't see widespread Tamiflu resistance before the autumn, and a vaccine on offer.

If we do, then they will have the alternative drug, Relenza, to hand. Though questions remain about whether we have enough of this drug in the UK stockpile.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    never underestimate the stupidity of the public.

    most people with families in their dealing with others practise a form of philosophy like national socialism . In their case the highest 'law' is the family [rather than nation] and it is in that name they will do all kinds of insane things.

    within the family they practise a form of policy like international socialism where everything is shared and run by an unremoveable tyrant.

  • Comment number 2.

    A lot of nonsense, I am sorry. Why make a child ill just for the sake of it? Schools are a natural environment where all kinds of illnesses become dissemenated and eventually treated. I associate the wonderful Susan Watts with more demanding/challenging topics. The theory underlying this case is that a small dose now will provide cheap immunity should be more deadly strain emerge later this year. This small dose could kill a child with a pre-existing illness, such as one of the forms of cancer. Let's take this flu head on, but not make a national security alert out of it. The fastest was of containment would be to round all transnational flights - make them stop over in Frankfurt instead!

  • Comment number 3.

    Susan:
    No...Swine Flu Parties are not a very good or even smart idea!


    ~Dennis Junior~

  • Comment number 4.

    Hi Susan,

    Recent statistics on Swine flu show 7,500 confirmed cases in the UK. However, if you compare this figure to some European countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, the cases and deaths in the UK are far higher. Germany, for example, has 505 cases and no deaths, while the Netherlands with only 135 cases.

    It's a simple question. Why have they had fewer cases? And what methods of prevention are they using to curb the virus from spreading. Could Newsnight do an analysis piece on these comparisons?

  • Comment number 5.

    Could one be arranged for the bankers and fiancial services, let's say on an island...a seriously infected island...
    Are human swine immune to swine flu?

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