Copenhagen diary: Tuesday 15 December 2009
The talks here are ratcheting up a notch now, with world leaders arriving - UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown in the next couple of hours and others in the coming few days.
The talks are moving into a new phase - the high level summit when negotiators give way to their political masters.
Prince Charles spoke this evening - about creating a global fund to protect the world's forests - one part of these talks looking hopeful of agreement this week.
The rest of it, though, is still bogged down. UK Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband said tonight that though things looks a little better today than yesterday, when teams from the developing world walked out, Copenhagen could still fail.
One observer said that by now he would have hoped that at least the key areas of dispute would be clear, but that not even that has settled.
Ministers and their leaders may even have to "rip up" what the negotiators have been working on, and start again.
ONE of the many, many fault lines remaining is whether the world should be aiming to limit the average rise in global temperatures to 2C, which is the position of the major economies, or a lower 1.5C rise above pre-industrial levels which the least developed countries and Africa are pushing for.
Today, the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, pitched into that row saying that though it would be "good" to keep temperatures lower, that might jeopardise a deal altogether - a sacrifice he sees as too large to make.
That may be a pragmatic approach by the UN, but it is not going down well with those countries who want the world to reach for more.
The chair of the least developed countries group, Bruno Sikoli, told me the lower temperature is not up for negotiation, because a 2C goal means 3C for parts of Africa and other poor nations.
There IS a feeling here that this could remain an issue over the coming days, though chatting to teams in the Bella Centre tonight it is clearly just one of a number of unresolved issues.
If the developed nations were to offer more, say by firmly committing to keep the legally-binding Kyoto Protocol in place at the same time as some form of Copenhagen agreement, along with fresh money perhaps, then there is still a chance that the developing nations will agree to drop this push for 1.5C.
Mr Miliband has just told reporters that the crucial finance session he is now co-chairing, carried on talking up to midnight last night. It has now agreed that more public money is needed, but no figure.
Mr Miliband said he feels the outlook is more positive than yesterday, but the fact is we are still in the phase where everything is in a state of flux, with reports that in texts circulating this evening the G77 and Chinese are adding back in elements they had agreed to take out earlier on.
We spotted John Prescott, a veteran of the Kyoto negotiations in the famous queue (which you can see in the film below) this morning in the cold.
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He told us the mood is absolutely as he expected for this stage of the talks, but that world leaders now have a chance to heal even the major rifts still erupting here.
All that still to come, and suggestions of major, mass direct action around the centre tomorrow... as anger is growing among the NGOs that so many of them will be turned away by the UN as they try to get into the centre for the next critical few days.
Comment number 1.
At 15th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:JUST HOW DESPERATE CAN THINGS GET?
Limited Ed Miliband and Hilary Oik Benn, have been shining like beacons of hope - in a mineshaft, AND NOW PREZZA HAS TURNED UP!
Do any of them have any PRIMARY understanding of what it is they are confronting? Do any of them have APTITUDE in scientific thought? Is Blair still floating about? His input must be invaluable. Where is Magic Obama - we need booming oratory - lots of it. Well - it can't do any harm.
Wonderful wonderful Copouthagen.
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Comment number 2.
At 15th Dec 2009, cmwyoung wrote:Good luck getting in tomorrow Susan.
There are some powerful figures - like Al Gore - working behind the scenes to try to resolve these apparently intractable issues, politicians across the world at subnational and local level being very pragmatic about change and business people coming up with neat ways of making this real for the ordinary person.
Check out the Net Impact in Copenhagen blog
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Comment number 3.
At 16th Dec 2009, JunkkMale wrote:Just saw the ´óÏó´«Ã½ Breakfast male teleprompter reader 'interview' the saviour of the planet in full waffle/'I' mode.
He asked the PM about the public conviction around man's role in climate change, and in his reply Mr. Brown flips it back to no doubt on generic global warming. Which indeed is hard to disagree is happening. Not where the debate, lies, Gordon. Why the Clintonian semantics, especially from a person trying to making saving the world all about him in every breath?
Also I'd have like to see developed the claim about his vast experience in matters of a 'private carbon market'. Is this just a set up for shunting money around and taxes?
Mr Miliband has just told reporters that the crucial finance session he is now co-chairing, carried on talking up to midnight last night. It has now agreed that more public money is needed, but no figure.
Maybe they are still making some figures up?
Oddly, the climate analyst Roger Harrabin just on did admit that this is controversial, so maybe the message is getting through that shunting dosh off any old where, any old how is not a panacea for resolving anything except the profits of a Lagos Mercedes dealer.
So maybe there is a sense that aspects of our governance are still worth holding to account.
Plus, perhaps we need fewer 'veterans' who might not be the best messengers for certain messages..
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Comment number 4.
At 16th Dec 2009, JunkkMale wrote:After the husky hug, car follows bike and non-rotating chimney ornament Mr. Cameron’s green creds are not high here at Junkk Towers either, at least there is some recognition that the public is not responding well to current nanny, fine, hector, guilt or scare messages, which puts him ahead of the current crop by a fair bit, relatively speaking (not a great advance).
“Discussing the Tory plans, a Labour spokesperson said: “This is a green con. At the same time as saying they will cut the deficit, the Tories are making yet more unfunded commitments with no idea how they would find the billions their proposals would cost.
Bless.
There are pups being sold. And the public isn’t buying.
Shame of it is that I do think actions are needed. Just, not from this collection of shysters, or any in the wings.
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Comment number 5.
At 16th Dec 2009, Roger Thomas wrote:JunkkMale
There is a suspicion that Cameron copied his whole strategy from a development strategy which was submitted to all Scottish MSPs at the start of April 2006, including Leader and Deputy leader Annabel Goldie and Murdo Fraser.
Go to Northern Tundra Alliance-look for Norway.
Where Cam ended up 3 weeks later. Then strip out all specific references from the rest and you have the Cons 'green agenda'
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