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William Crawley | 18:14 UK time, Sunday, 28 January 2007

stormont.jpgThe Sinn Fein motion ends with this caveat:

That the Ard Chomhairle [Sinn Fein steering group] is mandated to implement this motion only when the power-sharing institutions are established and when the Ard Chomhairle is satisfied that the policing and justice powers will be transferred. Or if this does not happen within the St Andrews timeframe, only when acceptable new partnership arrangements to implement the Good Friday Agreement are in place.

The DUP, for its part, are arguing that delivery on policing needs to take place in advance of power-sharing. We're back to the traditional political two-step by which the Northern Ireland peace process tends to shuffle forward: who jumps first?

It seems very likely at this point that an Assembly election will be held at the beginning of March with a view to the establishment of a power-sharing executive at the end of March. That last date is the deadline for finding a solution to this new problem. If Sinn Fein join the Policing Board and District Policing Partnerships before this date and call on the public to report crime to the police, it would be difficult for the DUP to claim they have not "delivered" on their promise. In order to take this step, Sinn Fein is looking, at the very least, for a clear statement from the DUP that they would respond to Sinn Fein's practical delivery on policing with a commitment to share power in the Assembly. The DUP, inevitably, will say to Sinn Fein: if you are now in support of policing in principle, why don't you implement this motion immediately and unconditionally rather than use your support for policing as a bargaining chip. In fact, the unwillingness to take this next step independently will be viewed by many within the DUP as evidence that Sinn Fein is not willing to give principled support to policing.

If Sinn Fein do nothing more than quote this motion (as it is, "unimplemented" by their Ard Chomhairle) between now and the end of March, the DUP will argue that the requirements of the St Andrews Agreement have not been met by Sinn Fein and refuse to form an executive. In those circumstances, the governments' "Plan B" will be activated: the Assembly will be dissolved indefinitely and de facto joint rule would continue from London and Dublin with direct rule ministers continuing to run Northern Ireland's affairs.

There's a third option, of course: the DUP could nominate ministers in a power sharing executive in advance of Sinn Fein's "delivery" on policing -- with a view to resigning within a certain period of time if Sinn Fein do not join the relevant policing boards and turn their "in-principle" support for policing into an "in-practice" support.

We've been here many times before in this process, when an "historic" step forward (such as the Good Friday Agreement, the renaming and restructiring of policing, actis of decomissioning and the St Andrews Agreement) seem merely to re-frame the argument rather than end the dispute.

In saying that, I would not wish to underestimate the significance of today's events in Dublin. But have we reached the final stretch in the journey to power-sharing or merely turned another corner? The answer to that question will be revealed in the next two months.

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