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On frogs and princes

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William Crawley | 11:44 UK time, Saturday, 31 May 2008

images.jpegI'm still trying to decipher the from Hillary Clinton this week: "you can't tell how far a frog will jump until you punch him." Presumably, she has now lost the amphibian vote. Or perhaps, she thinks a bespoke Bushism might make her look more presidential.

In any case, the question many of us are asking is why Hillary is still in the race, when it seems obvious that Barack Obama will win his party's nomination. One less-than-generous theory is that Hillary is actually running for the 2012 nomination: she is calculating that Obama will win the nomination this time, and is destroying his chances of beating McCain so that she can return to challenge a one-term McCain presidency (who will be 76 years old at that point). A more generous explanation is that the game isn't over until the fat frog sings. The current issue of that leaves open the possibility that Hillary could still win the popular vote (though there are a lot of 'ifs' in that analysis). It is also certainly the case that any candidate can implode in the final stage of the nomination race: perhaps Hillary is hoping that a personal scandal (or Jeremiah Wright-type scandal) will arise to overwhelm the Obama bid.

obama.jpgSome also think Hillary is holding out for the 'dream ticket": an Obama-Clinton joint challenge to McCain. I am doubtful of that analysis. This has been a very dirty campaign, and there may already be too much water under the bridge for a dream ticket. If Obama wins the nomination, he will be looking for a vice-presidential running mate who reaches states and constituencies that he cannot reach (that is the principal criterion for the V-P position). That means southern states, the Bible Belt, and large stretches of conservative, white America. So let me make a prediction -- dangerous, I know -- and invite you to make your own predictions for Obama's running mate.

Obama should seriously consider of Virginia: he ticks all the right constituency boxes and brings both executive branch experience, as a former Secretary of Navy, foreign policy experience, and an impressive military record as a Vietnam war veteran. He is also a charismatic communicator, a bestselling novelist and screenwriter, and on some of the sensitive political issues that might concern some Obama voters. He is the obvious choice.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    You think this has been a dirty campaign? You ain't seen nothin' yet. The campaign within the Democratic party has been a family fight. In the general election it will be taken outside into the street to become a knock down drag out brawl. Not all of the campaigning supporting each side will come from the candidates, their organizations, or the political parties themselves. Others will join in with their own agendas. The slander laws are not the same here as in the UK either, public figures are fair game including the object of deliberate lies as we saw in the forged letter about Bush's military record Dan Rather Broadcast just before the election last time. Don't expect McCain supporters to withhold using the race card as well. The photo of him in Moslem garb and his attendance in a Madrassa in Indonesia will be brought up again and again I'm sure. VP selections are always a surprise, held back until the convention and nomination but unless the candidates pick someone very badly chosen, they usually don't have much effect on the outcome. I predict that in the general election, Obama will lose in a landslide. Many Americans may be persuaded they want change but they will surely ask, change to what? Obama is very far from the mainstream of the American body politic by what little we know of him and he clearly does not have the experience to be President yet. His popularity has been largely a media engineered invention. Usually Presidential elections are fairly close but this time far fewer Republicans will defect while many Democrats will. Often, it's the "independent voters" who can go either way who are decisive. There may be a backlash among women who are angry about the way Senator Clinton was treated. If I had to pick a likely running mate, I'd guess Edwards.

  • Comment number 2.

    Marcus, I agree that John Edwards would also be a good pick. I think Jim Webb, nevertheless, offers some value-added elements (such as his executive experience and war service) which will prove useful in settling some fears about Obama. Edwards would be my number 2 choice of a VP, since he has a very impressive record on working class issues. Whether he could draw in southern votes, even though he is a former NC senator, is still in doubt.

    Incidentally, I am not arguing that Obama is the likely winner in the general election. A lot can happen between now and November. I merely argue that Webb will help him more than others to win.

  • Comment number 3.

    I thought this post was the most useful and insightful sum-up of the election at this point I've seen. William; ever been approached by a British newspaper to be their US politics correspondent?

  • Comment number 4.

    Anyone who expounds the national pride of Americans, supports their son's and daughter's fighting terrorism, promises ways of keeping down costs in a land that does not tolerate high taxes like UK and can empathise with those suffering at the lower end of the scale will catch the current imagination in U.S. By the way a person can only get into political power in America if they have millions of dollars and have wealthy supporters. This applies to Democrates as well who claim to be a more socialist party. God bless America!

  • Comment number 5.

    Yes it takes many tens of millions of dollars to mount a successful campaign to become President of the United States. But that does not mean you have to be born rich. President Clinton for example was not. By the time they get to run, they are usually quite well off. This is initial proof that they can accomplish something with their lives, be successful. But they rarely put up much of their own money to run. That is not usually sufficient anyway. Instead, they have to persuade others of their cause. It's one of the tests that they have what it takes to be a president. The system doesn't always attact the best and brightest. And even when it does, they don't necessarily win. Fortunately, in America's system, that is usually not necessary for success. There are other more important qualities.

  • Comment number 6.

    offering- Thank you for that. More Kool-Aid?

  • Comment number 7.

    Looking at Senator Webb's record, it is quite impressive. Except for accusations of misogyny and the racy novels he wrote, he seems to have few skeletons in his closet. But he does have some drawbacks. He only won his Senate race in Virginia by 0.5%. He does not have national name recognition like Edwards. And it wouldn't surprise me if other than his opposition to the war in Iraq, his views have little in common with Obama's. This alone might make him not near the top of Obama's list of candidates. He might have been a more viable candidate than Obama had he aspired to national office. We'll just have to wait and see.

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