Mounting anxiety
No longer is it just talk about letters that might be written and might be signed and might be sent. A letter has been sent to Tony Blair demanding that he sorts out his departure and does it soon.
Just as significant is who sent the letter - two MPs who would until a few months ago have been top of Downing Street's list of loyalists to sign a pledge of undying allegiance to the PM.
This on the day when another private document has leaked into the public domain, which will be causing not just red faces but cries of anguish inside Number Ten. the master plan for the countdown to the big day. Amongst other gems it contains the line:
"He needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore."
To achieve this his team will aim to book him onto Blue Peter, Songs of Praise and the Chris Evans show. As the Greeks used to say - first comes Hubris then comes Nemesis (or as my Mum would say 'pride comes before a fall').
This leak will only serve to confirm the mounting anxiety amongst Labour MPs that Tony Blair and his circle are putting his interests ahead of theirs. Another passage will also serve to confirm the suspicions of Gordon Brown and his supporters:
"...the more successful we are the more it will agitate and possibly destabilise him (Gordon Brown)."
The Prime Minister will now have to do something to shore up his position. He could try confirming the prediction of David Miliband this morning (hear the interview here) that this will be his last Conference as leader. He could start a formal process of planning 'a stable and orderly transition' with Gordon Brown. He may think of something else. But doing nothing is not now an option.
• PS: Many thanks to James Landale for looking after the blog while I was away. You can read an archive of all his posts by clicking here.
I'm 
Comments
Well I hope your holiday was less disturbed than the governments! All this noise about Blairs departure is just another distraction from yet another major government IT project failure. Not just IT either, can anyone identify a major transport, military, civil or social infrastructure project that this administration has delivered on cost, on time and to the required quality standards?
Nick why don't you surprise him at the next question session by asking the PM to identify one which passes all three tests rather than when he is leaving? The answer will tell everyone why he should be leaving, his administrations abject failure to deliver anything with an acceptable standard of efficiency or effectiveness.
The Labour MPs are worried that Blair is putting his interests before theirs? I really wish someone would put the country's interests first. This is a weak, rudderless and incompetent government. Blair should go .....
The arrogance of Blair and those around him is truly astonishing. That memo is worthy of being written before mid-day on 1st April.
Blair's big achievement? To have done little of consequence except. Once he goes (and labour after him) the country will get back to normal and it will be as if 10 years of "Blairism" never happened.
The same thing happened to Oliver Cromwell.
Hook, line and sinker...
Welcome back Nick, and well done for so blindly swallowing the latest bit of Brownite propaganda from Gordon Brown's man at the Mirror, Kevin Maguire.
Did the Songs of Praise/Vicar of St Albion's link not give it away? Or did you leave your marbles on holiday?
We were promised a full term of Blair, and those MPs were elected on that basis. All this plotting, conspiracy and rumour is cheating the electorate of what they were promised.
Blair should stay for at least another two to three years or call a General Election straight away.
John Galphin:
Yes, I can: the Jubilee Line delivered magnificently by John Reid, who must be instated as First Lord of the Treasury without delay.
And Nick, thank god you're back. James Landale's entires were OK but lacked your incisive succinctity.
Forgive me if I don't get excited about this story.
For nine years, I have been reading tedious Westminster journalists writing exactly the same story.
When is Blair going to hand over to Brown? What if he doesn't want to hand over to Brown?
"Frankly, he has to do something."
Then there will be a crisis. Everyone gets their knickers in a twist in Blackpool or wherever. The day before his speech at the party conference, people will say "This is the most important speech of his career" and then he will deliver what is not the most important speech but seems to satisfy everyone with a lot of crowd waving, and things will go on.
I am surprised you don't just cut and paste the article from last year or the year before that.
Sure, he will be leaving soon, probably in the middle of 2007. Anyone could have guessed that from the moment he said he wouldn't contest the next election.
Enough time to keep him happy but a couple of years for Brown to get a crack before the next election.
Why MUST he say something more about his departure date.
The fact is that political correspondents have a vested interest in wanting change in political parties. It is what makes their job newsworthy. It's exactly the same with football journalists. They have a vested interest in the England football manager getting sacked.
It means that they have got something to write about. Who will get it next? Who is a candidate? blablabla.
Sure, Blair will leave. Sure, it will be a bit messy. Sure, there are a few embarrassing emails.
But seriously significant? No.
Or at least, the date isn't.
What is significant are what Brown's views are on Palestine and Israel, what his views are on Iraq and Afghanistan. What his views are on the American relationship.
Why don't I know this? Because for ten years political commentators have been getting in a tizz about dates of departure and missing out on the serious stuff of how the country will change when Blair departs.
He will depart. Significant. Which week he will depart in. Insignificant.
Come on, Robinson. I normally enjoy reading your stuff. Hit the really interesting story and don't get trapped into writing obsessively about this for the next nine months.
...which will be causing not just red faces but cries of anguish inside Number Ten...
Seriously? Given that you seem to be somewhat in the minority on that (Iain Dale and Guido at least both pegging it as a deliberate leak), can you explain the reasoning behind that analysis?
Welcome back Nick!
Despite having Christian beliefs, I've only ever really associated Songs of Praise with people who want to make a visual impression... that is that during the songs, they either have a deeply serious look, a happy cheery look, or a reverently blissful look... all seemingly done for the cameras. It doesn't feel genuine.
So it is highly fitting and appropriate that Blair should want to appear on it!
I do not want the PM to go and am appalled by the disloyalty of many Labour MPs. What we have are disgruntled sacked ministers, the loony left and now frustrated MPs who feel they should have been Ministers. Added to this group - a media totally out of touch with the voting public. Yes we voted for the PM last year on the understanding that he would serve a "full term". No wonder the public are turned off by politics - we are utterly bored by the frenzy. Perhaps it is time that we dramatically reduced the number of MPs vis: technology means that we can contact government departments ourselves, many carry on careers which indicates they are not fully employed and finally,they have demonstrated they do not have enough work to do being so obsessed with the PM.
This is astounding. Whether this be a leak from No.10, No.11 or a tabloid hack, it's completely missing any and all salient points. Where are the released immigrant murderers? Where are the WMD? What happened to value for money in the public services? How much does a peerage cost? Where will we get our electricity from in 20 years time?
And politicians wonder why people are disillusioned with them. Do they seriously want the taxpayer to subsidise this kind of delusional claptrap?
Blair's sick and tired of all of when he will go? Well how about the rest of the country, who are sick and tired of all the talk as well, but more to the point, sick and tired of a bunch of poilticians who are SO out of touch with the electorate it is not true.
However, the farewell tour sounds a laugh. Where and when can we get tickets. so I can start stockpiling tomatoes and eggs now ...
What a total NARCISSIST the man is.
In principle, it would be a nice idea for Blair to go at a time that would leave the crowds wanting more. Shame he didn't think of that about 6 years ago.
Robert Stanier, you are Anthony Blair and I claim my £5.
Am I the only person in the UK that is bored to death with this story?.
Whether 'pro' or 'anti' Blair it is clear that the media are gagging for the P.M. to breath some life back into this story by making some sort of declaration ... which I bet he will make in his own sweet time.
Meanwhile this "will he / won't he" debate seems to have been around forever.
Can we please focus on what the government is actually doing, and what the opoosition would do if they ever got elected ... or get any policies, neither of which seems likely.
I think its about time journalists understand that 99% of the country dont give a monkeys about Blair/Brown all we want is someone to stop and listen to what the people of this country want.
Risible just doesn't do justice to the utterly lunacy of this whole situation.
Perhaps Tony has a vision of parading triumphantly through the streets of Britain, garlanded by laurels and cossetted by the swell of approbation and love from the unwashed proles in the streets who wish only to shower his feet in kisses as he passes.
Perhaps.
The reality is very different, however: a sceptical horde, sick of the cynical manipulation and transient and illusory beliefs the Prime Minister opines; the clumsy and jarring attempts to portray a kind of sweet-natured bonhomie to the gullible masses; the unrestrained arrogance of a man who truly believes he has reached an almost god-like status and that 'his people' will be bereft without him.
Tony Blair has presided over an inconceivably authoritarian and inappropriately interventionist programme of leglistation, has shown a steadfast refusal to even countenance listening to public (or anoyne else's) opinion (one to note for Hilary Armstrong, after her performance with Andrew Marr on Sundat), and helped, with the POTUS, to make the world an infintely more unstable place.
His legacy is simple: he is a latter-day Eden, in charge of an ill-conceived and costly military programme, stretching an under-resource military to its limits.
Doesn't he get the message? He has lost the plot, now even his own party are seeing him as a swivel-eyed, dememted lunatic who cannot be allowed to be a millstone around their neck.
Come in Mr Blair, your time is up.
Am I alone in thinking that Blair may suddenly develop an "illness" that causes him, on medical advice, to retire. This may gain him a little sympathy and a semblance of dignity.
I do agreed with Liz, I think it's time for MPs either labour, Cons or Lib to get on with the job they're being voted and paid for to do.
I really think that those calling for TB to give his departure time-table should focus on their work at hand - look at the communities you're representing aren't there more pressing issues to deal with?
TB will leave when the time is right for him to leave - i hope you all understand "God is the one who put and remove leaders".
MPs get on with the job you're paid for or electronic technology would replace you..it's possible!!
When it's Chris Bryant and Sion Simon who have signed this e-mail, you just know that TB is in it up to his shins.
They weren't just Blair loyalists, they were Blair brown nosers par excellence.
t
What I want to know is why he's still at Number 10.
He should have been kicked out years ago.
Shame Brown is too much of a coward to get rid of him.
So Nick, other than Blair deciding for himself when to quit, what mechanisms are in place for the Labour Party to remove him from Power?
I understand there are none. Very democratic.
Carl
As long as he doesn't do a Lindisfarne. I went to see them on at least two of their farewell tours.
Welcome back.
Yes, Guido and Iain are doing the story and it sounds important but in the end the affair is reduced to a tactic in the long running "when will he go" saga that is such a yawn.
I suppose "Whose tactic?" is a valid question though.
I do hope you mention the battle of the blogs soon - I mean that while you were away there was the Milly-Wiki incident and of course the new and cool Dave's Blog of India.
Perhaps these two forays into the blogosphere are not yet politically significant, but they do represent proof, if you needed it, that important people read blogs and now the spin doctors are ready to use them.
Will he go? When will he go? Blair is as deluded as Thatcher was in her final days in the bunker.
I only wish you luck and when Blair says, "Where's the microphone?" you are ready, with the microphone, facing the camera, resisting efforts by the minders to barge you out of the way.
Well they must have known you were back off holiday Nick- after all that has happened though do you think this will really be the thing that topples Blair or at least forces him to give a date? I certainly don't but you can never tell- do you think this will force Blair to go now?
I have always trusted the ´óÏó´«Ã½ to provide balance in their reporting, but in this instance the ´óÏó´«Ã½ and its reporters appear to be putting huge bias towards the minority of MPs and labour supporters who want Tony Blair to quit. In another of your reports today you quote a conservative opinion poll that suggests 30% of labour supporters and 51% of the general population want Tony Blair to quit this year. But what that actually means is that 70% of labour supporters do NOT want Tony Blair to quit this year! Surely that is a very significant fact? Surely the ´óÏó´«Ã½ should be broadcasting that side to this story, making it clear that whatever some labour MPs may feel, Tony Blair has the overwhelming support of the labour party as a whole to continue into next year? Why have you not even mentioned this side of the story? By reporting only one side of the story you are contributing to a mud-slinging contest in the same way that I might expect of the Daily Mail!!!
The writers of the leaked memo seem to be ignoring the question of the leadership election. The media aren't going to be much interested in Blair visiting schools and hospitals in his last month if there's a contest going on. And if Blair's successor-elect is already confirmed, what is he supposed to be doing while Blair is setting himself up as the great leader that the public don't want to lose?
Fact is, Blair will lose all control of the agenda the day the leadership election is called. From then on, he's just holding the fort until the Queen can send for his successor.
Tony Blair and New Labour have done more harm to this country and society than good.
Firstly, Yates of the Yard should be allowed to deal with him.
Next a little trip over to de Hague for an appearence in front of the War Crimes Commission.
Finally followed by the British electorate kicking the whole sleaze driven, spin spinning, snouts in the trough members of New Labour back where they belong.
Then we can all have a street party to celebrate!
This newly leaked document has more than a few similarities with the dodgy dossier prior to the Iraq invasion. The difference seems to be that it has been plagiarised from a Mills and Boon novel, not an Oxford PhD thesis. I really cannot belive that anyone connected with government could have been payed to write such drivel. Are we really going to see an entry in who's who saying "Blair, Anthony. British prime minister 1997-2007, appeared once on Blue Peter"?
Blair's departure is like all New Labour projects - long on talk, short on actual delivery.
"He needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore." Really? His advisors are clearly as deranged as him.
Guess he won't be apologising for the mess that is Iraq either then.
"He needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore."
About 9 years too late, Tony.
If this memo is real then what a disgusting, self-indulgent, arrogant piece of spin this will turn out to be. It underlines 100% the cynical, self-serving ethos behind this sham of a prime minister and those that pander to his ego! Does his office really believe that an appearance on Songs of Praise and Blue Peter is going to impress anyone, other than to reinforce that the man never has been and never will be anything other than a complete phoney. 'Farewell Tour'... who does he think he is? The Pope? The Rolling Stones?
Just a thought. If my MP is part of those who are obsessed with Blair's departure date instead of their duties, is it out of place if I (and others in my constituency) call for him to be recalled for gross dereliction of duty?
Nick please advice.
It is interesting to read so many people claiming that this simply a media frenzy and of no interest to the general public. It's a line which you hear repeated over and over whenever the subject of Blair's departure comes up.
According to the latest poll, 51% of voters think Blair should resign this year. Them's the facts.
But then, Blair and his supporters have never allowed the facts to intrude into their mythical world of spin. It's just one of the many reasons why so many people are actually desperate to be rid of the man.
Is that water I see around Tony's feet, or just the scamper of tiny little feet attempting to plug the leaks!
Maybe Ahab and Moby Dick come to mind - choose who you think fits each character best!
Mind that harpoon Tony...
(Or, as per the tubes announcements
Passengers are reminded to Mind the Gap...!)
R
"He needs to go with the crowd wanting more
He should be the star who won't even play that last encore"
How corny can you get? It seems like his acolyltes suffer even worse from delusions of grandeur than he does himself.
Tony Blair is never going to be another Eva Peron, and England is never going to cry for him, but rather because of him.
Welcome back Nick. Nothing much has happened whilst you were away, just some real news but nothing to bother you political journalists.
Just keep plugging away at Tony Blair, eventually the whole nation will demand his resignation so that they can read something else in the media.
Dear Nick,
New academic year, new broom, please:
Can we have regular lists of why Blair should stay from you? Not as constantly as the influential Tory press has trashed all the good of the last years, though. But enough to help us decide to boost Britain and not venal people over any transition.
On my list would be: his achievements, his current near achievements, what will go wrong as successors jostle, what will go wrong as soon anyone else in Labour mounts the bridge, his failures and the influence of the media in making them worse, ..
At the top of my list would be the triumphs in education that are underway but need a strong hand moving the tiller. Second would be our struggle with rising tides of anomie, moral, medical, physical, leisure and intellectual. Third would be attempts to do what Keynes tried over two world wars: prevent rapaciousness rule the planet. For earth's sake let them not all be collateral damage of a media war.
Can we also please debate ways in which a bi-party system fails to innovate? One of them must be fear of the media. All governments have tried, am I right in thinking that Thatcher and Blair have been successful? Is it jealousy and our need to play trumpet loudly rather than hubris that is driving the current media-boosted crisis?
Finally, please try to be nicer in how you say things. We distrust our CEO type leaders for dissembling, and I for one am starting to distrust our media for being nasty. It is rare but possible to be frank and caring. Your role is as important as any minister of the crown. Fresh from holiday, please dont debase it for the sake of a ringing soundbite.
Lastly, please dont shoot the whole message for the odd slip. This media stuff is not my field ..
I have long felt that Anthony Bliar would not stand aside to allow his good friend Gordon a shot of the top job, partly because he loves it so much, but also partly because he thinks that, of the two, he is the only fit person for the role.
While scribblers scribble, and the good people of the country struggle under his authoriatarian rule, T Bliar carries on serenely playing to the galleries knowing that short of death, nothing can shift hime before the next election.
For all those who wish him gone, don't hold your breath. When he finally does leave, please don't buy his or any other politicians memoirs, you know that it only encourages them.
Blair is finished, yet he seems to be the only one not to get the message. He has no intention of letting Brown get in, unless there are no others.
He has bought himself into disrepute. Two million people went into the streets of London to oppose the war in Iraq. Yet that was based on a tissue of lies. The intellegence services are made to look inefectual because they cannot come up with reports that support his views. Those they do produce are 'modified' so that they appear to support Blair.
How much longer, in a democracy, do we have to put up with his lunacy?
Bush has made Iraq a Vietnam all of his own. I'll bet the looney 'conspiracy theories' has helped him avoid any criticism. Bush's "If you're not with me you're on the side of the terorists".
Come election time I think we will see the back of the replacements for Blair and Bush.
Rod, a job with Private Eye does not await you. Get back to the day job and leave the attempts at humour well alone.
Blair is finished, yet he seems to be the only one not to get the message. He has no intention of letting Brown get in, unless there are no others.
He has bought himself into disrepute. Two million people went into the streets of London to oppose the war in Iraq. Yet that was based on a tissue of lies. The intellegence services are made to look inefectual because they cannot come up with reports that support his views. Those they do produce are 'modified' so that they appear to support Blair.
How much longer, in a democracy, do we have to put up with his lunacy?
Bush has made Iraq a Vietnam all of his own. I'll bet the looney 'conspiracy theories' has helped him avoid any criticism. Bush's "If you're not with me you're on the side of the terorists".
Come election time I think we will see the back of the replacements for Blair and Bush.
There is a deep-seated problem here. It appears that Tony Blair and his personal entourage genuinely believe that he is still popular among the general public, when it could not be further from the truth.
Surely most of the public would prefer an efficient and orderly transfer of power to Labour's next leader and Mr Blair to leave politics, quietly and with a semblance of dignity? Instead, it appears that we will be subjected to yet another Blair ego trip.
What, exactly, is there to celebrate about "Blairism"? A culture of lies, deceit and spin that no longer fools anybody is not something to celebrate.
New Labour's success is almost entirely a result of "Brownism". A sound economy, based on the independence of the Bank of England in setting interest rates, has been the key.
In contrast, Blair has failed to reform the National Health Service, failed to be tough on crime and its causes, failed to recognise, let alone address the problems of uncontrolled immigration and failed to tackle educational under-achievement despite stating at the outset that his top priority was "Education, Education, Education."
What Blair HAS delivered is tissue of lies and deceit used to justify the wars in Irag and Afhanistan, ensuring that Britain will be at risk of terror attacks for many years to come. That is Blair's legacy to Britain, and that is what he will be remembered for.
Nick,
I do hope the Editors of Blue Peter and Songs of Praise will not allow their shows to be used by Blair. They should give him the two finger sign.
Unlike the mainstream media I suppose we will have too rely on Iain Dale and Guido to do that for us.
With our local hospitals threatened with closure due to lack of funds.
Local road net a shambles due to Prescot's interventions in 1997.
Wall to wall building in a drought ridden area.
What precisely do we thank TB for? the sooner this man departs the better.
The problem is another PR man on the horizon, thank goodnes I'm in my eighth decade.
I can't take much more of this shambles.
"He needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore."
Doesn't he understand that no-one wants any more. And we certainly never asked for an encore.
Blair must leave, and soon.
In my exposure to democratic form of governments for over half a century,at no time in the past had i been witnessing an astonishing lack of in support for an incumbent PM to quit according to his term as well as that of people who lected him for another 5 years last year, who won 3 sucessive elections for a party which was in the wilderness for 18 years from 1979 to 1997.
Are not people missing one possible explanation of Chris Bryant and Sion Simon being behind this letter? Yes, they are known as having been very strong Blair supporters. They are also known for being highly ambitious and young MPs who have never been appointed to government. Tony Blair almost certainly won't be having a reshuffle before he goes.
What better way to say "Up yours for not appointing us to government, despite all we did for you; we'll see if our luck is better with Gordon"?
Actually I've changed my mind.
The nation should collectively rise and put their hands together for Mr Blair... that is, in the same way that the WI did a few years ago when they publically embarassed him.
Perhaps then he'd take the hint.
I was considering going into politics in some capacity, and, in some of my wildest dreams hoping to be named Ambassador to the UK. (I'm an American.) I, too wanted to appear on Blue Peter (which I've heard about for years) and Songs of Praise (I'm an amateur student of hymns) if I ever got the job. Now, I'd be thought of as trying to copy Tony Blair!
Oh well. At least he didn't try and appear on Doctor Who. (Or did he appear in the Slitheen episodes?)
I see little point to changing the leadership of the Labour Party if the successer is going to follow the policy of Blair on many matters most of all, the slavish following of Bush and his foreign policies however, they say a change is as good as a rest.
T.L. Yorkshire
I don't believe that the present political debacle is a result of a Brown coup. Brown is as badly damaged by this as Blair. Yes there is orchestration of events but not by the obvious suspects --- neither Blair or Brown. The real question is who stands to benefit the most from the apparent gargantuan struggle for power between the two main players?
There are those lurking in the shadows who have had their use of Blair, now a liability, and who are determined to hasten his departure but also negate any hope that Brown has of succeeding him because it would be detrimental to their political careers. The dogs of war have been unleashed and without doubt the Blair and Brown camps have been set at each other's throats. All too convenient methinks.
There is much confusion and frenzy surrounding unfolding events but if the focus shifted from Blair vs Brown and was broadened out to the wider parliamentary Labour party ie who stands most to gain from this present political blood letting then it might be much more enlightening and broaden the debate.
Blair and Brown both realised yesterday that neither one of them had control of events and the political momentum building up was not of their doing hence Milliband's comments in the New StatesMan today supporting Brown. It is also worthy of note that any senior Labour politician interviewed( with possible politial aspirations of their own for the leadership)place the debate between Blair and Brown. All the ringing of hands over the political mess thus far is amply conveyed by them in every interview leaving themselves well positioned for political life after Blair! Blair is undoubtedly finished --- it's just a matter of time but more significantly people are now debating his political character and acumen in relation to his right/ability to succeed to the PM post. This is the last thing that Brown would have precipitated at this time for obvious reasons.
I am sick and tired off trial by media.Tony Blair IS THE PRIME MINISTER and will remain so until he resigns So please LISTEN TO HIS WORDS or as the saying goes WHAYCH MY LIPS and tell me something of genuine interest.
Like for instance WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE WORLD THAT IS GOOD INSTEAD OF ENDLESS HYPOTHETICAL GARBAGE FROM YOU.
The B.B.C. receives payment from the public to ENTERTAIN and keep us abreast of REAL NEWS.
So please do the job you are paid for or get the hell out of it,as as a Grandad i want my grandchildren to experience the REAL world and not someyhing dreamt up by the B.B.C.
Anybody can be a critic it takes a MAN to do a REAL job, I write this with no political agenda just a normal healthy guy who likes to deal with REALITY