Fork in the road
- 8 Mar 07, 11:19 AM
Lordy Lordy. What are we to make of ? Was it a first step on the path to elections for our second chamber or the first step on leading to a constitutional ditch? Rarely have I felt so unsure about what lies ahead so I'll set out both cases and let you choose.
Why it might be a first step on the path to elections for our second chamber:
• Whatever the reasons MPs may have had in their minds, last night's vote was for what it said on the paper - a fully elected Lords. That will create its own momentum
• The likely next prime minister and his possible successor are both committed to electing 80% of peers and are likely to put that in their next manifesto
• The political mood has changed for good - partly for generational reasons and partly thanks to the cash for honours investigation. Many MPs are now embarrassed to be heard arguing for a fully apppointed House of Lords
• This is an idea whose time has come
Why it might be the first step on a muddy, potholed road leading to a constitutional ditch:
• The vote for 100% elected Lords was swelled by those who wanted anything but that. They were seeking to provoke a confrontation with the Lords. Previous reforms have been defeated by unholy alliances eg Enoch Powell and Michael Foot in the 70s
• They'll succeed as peers of all parties are predominantly opposed to elections
• Many peers are not just fighting for a principle but for their job, their pay, their perk and their pension. All good reasons they won't give in easily
• Gordon Brown's not daft enough to waste his first few months in office or the first few months after an election victory fighting a protracted battle about a topic which no-one down "The Dog & Duck" cares about
• David Cameron told his peers that this was a priority (wait for it) for his third term in office!
• The devil is in the detail - i.e how peers will be elected, by whom, when, to a body called what and with which powers - and last night's vote was not about any of that.
Your view then?
P.S.The act of writing this made me come to a view. It will be the first step on the path to elections for our second chamber but the road to it will be muddy, potholed and lined with ditches so no-one can tell how long it will take to travel. Cop out, me?
