大象传媒

Five reasons why Ireland can beat France (91)

• Bryn Palmer
• 21 Sep 07, 10:15 AM

Paris - France are to put their opening-night catastrophe against Argentina firmly behind them and pulverise an under-performing Ireland on Friday, taking a huge step towards the quarter-finals in the process.

So is there any hope at all for Eddie O鈥橲ullivan鈥檚 boys? Could they upset the odds and effectively eliminate the World Cup hosts before the end of the group stages?

Let鈥檚 see if we can come up with some reasons why Irish eyes might be smiling, rather than sobbing, at the Stade de France鈥�

1) They are underdogs.

No dispute there. They have . And despite attempts to change that stereotypical image in recent years, the evidence suggests that is the label that sits most comfortably on Irish shoulders. To quote : 鈥淭he Irish prefer to blow out the candles rather than celebrate them.鈥� While I don鈥檛 think for a moment Zinny was suggesting the Irish don鈥檛 love a good party, I think I knew what he meant. Ireland have lost their last five matches against France, including a quarter-final thrashing at the last World Cup. The last time they beat them was in the 2003 Six Nations, 15-12 on a blustery day in Dublin.

2) Eoin Reddan.

It is unlikely that in his World Cup planning Eddie O鈥橲ullivan envisaged dispensing with a scrum-half with 79 caps for one with just three in his locker, for the pivotal game of their campaign. But does have a certain logic to it. Putting aside his display against Georgia and the intercepted pass that caused Ireland so much grief, Stringer rarely causes an opposition defence to think twice before it sets its sights on Ronan O鈥橤ara. Reddan, on the other hand, is happy to attack around the fringes and has the pace to back himself, as his two tries for Wasps in their Heineken Cup quarter-final win against Leinster last season demonstrated.

3) France鈥檚 team selection.

Bernard Laporte reckons Yannick Jauzion is not fit enough to last 80 minutes at the moment. In which case I would have started with him and made sure France had his reassuring presence at centre while they try to gain control. David Marty is quicker and livelier once the ball is in his hands, but he knocked on four times in a row . In a game where looking after the ball will be paramount, Jauzion鈥檚 absence could be costly with Brian O鈥橠riscoll hovering. And for all his other qualities, does not appear to have fully mastered the intricacies of the line-out yet in his new role at lock. Paul O鈥機onnell and co. could have some joy there.

4) In BOD we trust.

The best centre in the world has not looked like that in this World Cup, or been able to provide the inspirational lead he has so often in the past. But Brian O鈥橠riscoll, as he has proved many times, is a man for the big occasion. Intriguingly, he has often proved a thorn in French flesh, scoring seven tries in his seven Tests against the Tricolores. Three of those of course came on that dazzling spring day in 2000 when the young tyro alerted the rest of the world to his burgeoning talent with a stunning hat-trick at the Stade de France, Ireland鈥檚 first victory in Paris since 1972. They haven鈥檛 won in the French capital since, but where there鈥檚 BOD, there鈥檚 hope.

5) The siege mentality.

After all the criticism that has come their way after two dismal displays against and Ireland have plenty of motivation to ram their critics鈥� words down their throats. The last week has seen all sorts of rumours about player unrest, splits in the camp, and of the task at hand. Such stories, if true, could see the whole show collapse if France get their tails up, or they could bond the Irish closer together in adversity. Their hosts do not feel completely at home at the Stade, where they have lost one in three of their Tests, and the locals get can restless. Frustrate them early on, and who knows鈥�

Not convinced? No, me neither. Losing on Friday will constitute a national calamity for France. I take them to win by 12-15 points. What do you reckon?

Bryn Palmer is the 大象传媒 Sport website鈥檚 rugby union editor.

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