Who are favourites in Rome?
- 2 Mar 07, 12:07 PM
Cardiff - The general impression I鈥檝e been getting from around the country this week is that the majority of Welsh fans see their team as the underdogs for next week鈥檚 game with Italy at the Stadio Flaminio.
If that鈥檚 correct, it鈥檚 the first time it鈥檚 happened - although I imagine that moods will swing back to the usual ridiculous Welsh optimism as we build towards the fixture!
I don鈥檛 have any scientific facts to back up the theory, so I thought I鈥檇 throw it open and see what the mood of the nation is.
Personally, I still think that Wales will win (that ridiculous optimism I was talking about?!).
The Italian pack have been hugely impressive, but they were gifted those three early tries by Scotland 鈥 and I still think that the Scots would have won if they鈥檇 chosen to take their kicks at goal.
Going for penalty kicks to the corner from in front of the posts when the game was less than 10 minutes old was just crazy.
Wales will know where the Italian challenge is coming from, but can they contain it?
Their pack鈥檚 performance in losing to Scotland at Murrayfield would suggest not, while being starved of possession cost them any chance in Paris.
But Gareth Jenkins will analyse the Italians well and prepare his pack, as he did before a reasonably impressive showing against Ireland.
The lack of possession in Paris was largely down to a wasteful kicking game.
Hopefully Wales will have learnt from that, and with the extra strike-running power of Gareth Thomas behind I think they will have too much for the Azzurri.
Wales 27-18 England
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I think that Wales can and will win their last two games. I would hate to see a team of their quality ending up bottom of the pile. Against us (Ireland) they played some fantastic flowing rugby & we were highly fortunate to win. Despite taking our scoring chances superbly, we were played off the pitch for long periods of the game. The performance against a poor Scottish side was woeful, but I still think Wales are better than Scotland, Italy and England.
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Sean,
This eternal optimism is gained at birth. It probably goes back to the middle ages. This year it is building to a crescendo on 17th March when we face England at the Millennium Stadium. (I proudly remember our last victory when Cardiff came alive, people were dancing on the tables)
Our party of nine will be a group of probably 6,000 travelling to Rome to hopefully see a spectacular game bathed in warm sunshine. We will meet up with a group of 8 Italians that we met some 6 years ago and see every year either in Rome or Cardiff. I think we will win and go on to beat England hopefully by the margin necessary to climb above them on points difference. We need a large points difference in Rome. Oh the buzz of the 6 Nations.
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I'm with Sean on this- I think Wales can win against Italy and will win. But then I too am an eternal optimist when it comes to Welsh rugby...
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The Italian pack will keep the ball away from Wales. So Wales will be starved possession and will find it very hard to win. But if they get the ball and keep it in hand they will win, and win well.
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Wales have the players to defeat Italy comfortably, in fact to win the 6 nations and do well in the World Cup. Unfortunately, not the coach or coaching team. With Gareth Jenkins in charge I fear Wales will lose as there is no pattern of play - I've no idea what we are trying to do. My solution relates to an earlier blog - bring back Mike Ruddock, the best coach Wales have had since the 70's. Without him we are poor - and now we have the results to support the fact that Ruddcok was the main catalyst in bringing Wales the title back in 2005.
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I think Italy have at last earned the right to be favourites. Hopefully they'll cope with the pressure of expectation like they did in their opening game against France. Though at the same time, i would think Wales would be more afraid of losing this game than their opponents perhaps.
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I agree - many of my knowledgeable rugby mates believe we are underdogs for Italy.
We know how strong Italy are in the pack, so it's really a matter of competing there.
If we successfully win our share of possession at the set piece and break down we should be comfortable - if not though the Italians may just have something more to celebrate this year...
C'mon Wales!
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I agree with your outlook. I think we will beat the Italians well, they will not be able to contain us. we won't have the same issues in the lineout as they are not that impressive at the lineout. If Horsman is fit we will have parity in the scrums, as we did in Paris until he went off. Everybody made a fuss about our scrum collapsing against France but it was simply because our specialist tight head went off and Gethin was thrown in the deep end. You don't put a Loose head on the tight head against possibly one of the best scrummaging sides in the world. I think we have learned our lessons and will beat Italy and England.
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Berbezier is a great coach and will prepare the italians to keep hold of the ball up front - starve the Welsh of possession and try to grind out a win thru plenty of penalties and playing in the welsh half.
Wales need to counter this with a much improved lineout and not kicking the ball away. Keep the ball boys and play out your phases and only do it in their half please.
Come on Wales!!
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I think Philip (#4) has it right, Italy will surely dominate at scrum time, if they can break Wales shaky lineout as well, I think Wales will be starved of possession and will struggle to get points. On the other hand, if they can keep the ball long enough to create some chances, they have good enough players in midfield to score tries.
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I agree with your outlook. I think we will beat the Italians well, they will not be able to contain us. we won't have the same issues in the lineout as they are not that impressive at the lineout. If Horsman is fit we will have parity in the scrums, as we did in Paris until he went off. Everybody made a fuss about our scrum collapsing against France but it was simply because our specialist tight head went off and Gethin was thrown in the deep end. You don't put a Loose head on the tight head against possibly one of the best scrummaging sides in the world. I think we have learned our lessons and will beat Italy and England.
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Before the game against France on saturday, more than anything I just wanted to see a decent performance. And that I saw. But expectations must be raised against the Italians. This Wales side has great potential, but a loss in Rome will be a severe blow to our confidence going into the big one in Cardiff.
It will be tight up front, but hopefully our backs can come to life and have the edge. Alfie is try scorer.
Come on boys bach!!!
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I agree with your outlook. I think we will beat the Italians well, they will not be able to contain us. we won't have the same issues in the lineout as they are not that impressive at the lineout. If Horsman is fit we will have parity in the scrums, as we did in Paris until he went off. Everybody made a fuss about our scrum collapsing against France but it was simply because our specialist tight head went off and Gethin was thrown in the deep end. You don't put a Loose head on the tight head against possibly one of the best scrummaging sides in the world. I think we have learned our lessons and will beat Italy and England.
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Before the game against France on saturday, more than anything I just wanted to see a decent performance. And that I saw. But expectations must be raised against the Italians. This Wales side has great potential, but a loss in Rome will be a severe blow to our confidence going into the big one in Cardiff.
It will be tight up front, but hopefully our backs can come to life and have the edge. Alfie is try scorer.
Come on boys bach!!!
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I think it is to difficult to call favourites in this game. If Wales play like they did against Ireland and in the first half against France they are more than capable of scoring out in the backs to beat Italy. Lets not forget as good as Italy were against Scotland they were given 21 points.
Wales need to get the back row recycling quick ball and lets our superior backs make the difference.
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I agree - many of my knowledgeable rugby mates believe we are underdogs for Italy.
We know how strong Italy are in the pack, so it's really a matter of competing there.
If we successfully win our share of possession at the set piece and break down we should be comfortable - if not though the Italians may just have something more to celebrate this year...
C'mon Wales!
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Re Comment No 1. Wales are not better than Scotland please refer to murrayfield score and last years 6N table. Yes working out the better team is that easy.
I agree with Sean, Wales will win in Rome.
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I'm confident that 40% possession, used correctly and not kicked aimlessly, should be ample to see off Italy. I'm also confident that England can & will be beaten on 17th.
Regarding Chris Sheldon's comment (#5), the biggest loss, in my opinion, is Andrew Hore, not Mike Ruddock. From what I've seen, the power levels of the team seem to have dropped considerably since his departure, resulting in far less turnover ball from aggressive tackling and counter rucking - from which we scored so many of our tries in 2005.
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I cannot see Wales beating Italy. Yes, they played well in Paris, but the return of Thomas in my view is a hindrance; his best position is outside centre, not in the back three. Italy are on a massive roll of confidence. As an Irish fan, I was wary of our trip to Rome before the Six Nations. Now I'm afraid they will scupper our championship hopes. Wales do not have the physical edge needed to beat Italy up front, and the Stadio Flaminio is not wide enough to allow free-flowing movement from the backs. France were only in second gear against Wales, and still won with 11 points to spare
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Thank all the gods for optimism - some of the last 30 years would've been pretty bleak without it! Before the Italian forwards vs Wales backs debate starts (were Scotland trying to hard to spread it wide early on?) success in this match will surely come from the Welsh pack gaining some form of parity (at least) up front as in 2005 (pretty obvious I know but I do think we look for salvation from a mythical fly-half sometimes). Post that success the desperate intent to run everything from everywhere under the banner of the 'welsh way' has been exposed as the better teams, with a well organised defence, have contained the threat. Hopefully we'll do the exciting stuff after our forward ball carriers have tied up their pack a bit! Wales started this campaign with the intention of turning over Ireland's front row (no show there - although the turf in Cardiff didn't help), the set piece creaked in Scotland and was destroyed in Paris. But I don't believe that the front five has gone from match winners to also rans in two years - I want to see them take the Italians pack on, win our own set pieces and give them something to think about around the fringes. Then the backs can run riot! After that England pretty comfortably, then with a bit of confidence running through the team, the world cup final is a probable setting up an intriguing clash with the ABs (or does that happen in the semi-final?). Lets just stay clear of $拢&*% Western Somoa. And then there's good news that Charlotte & Gav are expecting (congratulations - half a dozen of each please) which will see us dominate the men & women's game over the next 30-40 years. Optimism & expectation! Hah - other nations just aren't in our league
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I have to agree with Chris, of course Wales can win but we are doing a diservice to the Italians assuming we will. It wasn't the game against Scotland that was so impressive as the way they completely annuled the English for most of the game. That is where the danger for us lies. Walesa backs should handle the italians back line easily, but will they get ay ball. My prediction, we narrowly lose to the Italians and come back to thrash the english!
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i am afraid that i am possibly the only welsh pessamist out there and think that we will lose to Italy. We will no doubt get the wooden spoon and in all fairness we deserve it the way we have been playing.
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If Wales are the underdogs going into the Rome Clash,then why is Gareth Jenkins still in a job? mike ruddock took wales forward in every aspect and now Jenkins has reversed this all, now im not asking for a magical ruddock comeback but , wales .. underdogs against italy? surely this isnt right!
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I think that the result of the Italian game may well depend on the fitness of Chris Horsman. The Welsh scrum has looked solid with him on the tighthead, and a shambles with any other combinations. Wales must use the last 2 games of the 6 nations to establish more consitent patterns of play (lineout in particular) in preperation to face the Aussies and Fiji in the World cup - beating Italy is crucial to try to establsh some momentum and self-belief.
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This puts us in an interesting position.
If we can regain form (like many others I cannot believe this squad has gone from good to just average in 2 years) I think we have more to offer the Italians.
Yes they have an excellent pack but their game still displays limited options outside of this, and i believe they will struggle to cope with a varied game (if we can remember how to play one).
They may also be confused by not being the underdog, as obviously they have never entered a game with that mantle before!
Of course we can win: Forwards need to carry the ball, backs need to make sure they don't kick away and GJ needs to remember we need backs on the bench as well as forwards - one injury prone wing and another with only one game under his belt would usually have some cover in the replacements.
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I think it depends a lot on the who gets the early scores. If Wales get a couple of early tries, then Italy simply can't rely on penalties to win the game. I believe the Italians have a very limited capability for scoring tries against top 10 opposition. Don't forget that their 3 early tries against Scotland ALL came from Scottish blunders. My predication is that if Wales score 2 tries in the first 20 minutes, we will win convincingly. If it's close after 30 mins, who knows.
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The match Italy vs Wales will be very difficult. Italy have the stronger pack; the Italian prop, The 鈥渂aron鈥 Lo Cicero, (because this player have blue blood) is certainly the best prop in the world (after the british Leonard). And so the substitutes the 鈥淭oulosen鈥 Perugini and the Gloucester鈥 s player Nieto. But Italy have too other important players. For exemple the taller Italian player, (two metre and seven) Dellap猫 and many important players, father鈥檚 footsteps, as the Bergamasco Brothers and Sergio Parisse. Those players are not considered champions, but belive me, they are so! Lastly we don鈥檛 forget the worrior: Toncon! Wales for me have more chanche to win this match, but with Garret Thomas, which is the real leader and soul of this team. He is a Great Champion! As italian I have a great great respect for Wales鈥 team. But I鈥檇 call too Charvis and Hansen. They are very important players. I believe will have a big match! Best regards. Thank you 大象传媒. Pierpaolo
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If we can get enough possession I expect Wales to shade it in Italy. Then to the rapturous delight of the "cheer anything" brigade we will beat a very poor England and Gareth will be acclaimed as our saviour! Well in Llanelli anyway.
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Italy all the way! No disrespect to the Welsh. But I'd love to see Italy back up their win. It'd only confirm their status. If not, I'm sure they'll do it next year. I'm English, but they could have beaten us. Maybe they'll shock Ireland :P.
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I was in the Stade de France when Wales was easily beaten by France. But still, Wales has vastly improved from their previous performances. (and that was not difficult). The Italian pack may be strong but their backs can't score a try, unless they receive a direct pass from a scottish fly half. Wales by 10 points. Just like against England.
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Following on from the 6 nations championship, Wales have slowed down the passing,running rugby. It is not going to produce a try every time, but the constant running game produces scoring oppertunities. Playing the way that produced the title, will exite everyone. It is better to lose playing well, than to fumble to a win. It will be physical in Italy, but a win should be there for the the taking. Then the end game against England in Cardiff !!!!!
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I take a positive view of the first few matches of this campaign. It has been a chance to learn from mistakes and see how some different players perform. Some have shown themselves to be international class, while others have not. With more quality returning from injury, the better knowledge we have of players and weaknesses, I see Italy in real danger of losing by a big score and England losing by a moderate score. Throw in a vistory in Australia and we are back on track for semi final hopes in the World Cup. We will need to be strong up front and build some phases before unleashing the backs, however.
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wales will lose in Italy and then try and smash the English. They wont though. Wales for the wooden spoon.
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I think you all underestimate Italy's backs and defense. Players like Troncon, Mirco and Canale are underrated and could test Wales, and if you try to keep the ball in hand, their rush defense and superior strength could stop you dead and reverse possession. Also, Mauro Bergemasco and Parisse are great players for Stade, and on great form. the final factor contributing to Welsh defeat is that the Italians will receive a 拢200,000 each if they win 2 6 nations matches and reach the 1/4 finals in September. That's a huge incentive. Wales will lose, narrowly.
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I think Italy will win as long as they use the power of their pack and keep the ball away from the Welsh backs. I think they can do this as the showed they could against England and Scotland. The Welsh need a more mobile pack to get the ball back to their backs if they are going to compete.
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I've been watching Welsh rugby for a very long time. Since a time before sponsorship, professionalism, boot money and the Millennium Stadium, I鈥檝e watched players like Keith Jarrett and Barry John with absolute awe.
However, with a bit of thought, I think I鈥檝e worked out where Wales are going wrong today鈥
1. A good 'big one' will always beat a good 'little one'. Shane Williams take note.
2. Graham Henry's return and onward success with New Zealand can only highlight a problem evident in Wales for the last 20 years. Put simply, we don't have the raw materials or what the Americans call 'the Right Stuff'.
3. The players of the great 1970's Welsh sides were all articulate, intelligent and professional men. They could think. Look along the team during the national anthems now. Could the same be said of today鈥檚 players? Having the word 鈥楤rains鈥 displayed across the Welsh jersey is surely an oxymoron?
4. Any rugby player who is more concerned about his hair, or his tan, is in the wrong business. Alternative careers can be found behind the perfume counter of Boots Chemists in Swansea and Cardiff.
5. Passion. The current Welsh coach, some of his recent predecessors and some notable commentators are obsessed with passion; 鈥渢he team must play with passion鈥. Nonsense. As anyone, who has fallen out of love will tell you, passion does not pay the bills, hard works does. It鈥檚 that simple!
Am I wrong?
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I'm not confident in Wales' chances at all. As is noted by many other posters I think Wales have the players to win but at the moment it's the coaches, in particular Gareth Jenkins' selection policy that's letting us down. Although with the injury to Horsman it may finally mean he'll have to select our best prop combination, Jenkins at loose, Adam Jones at tight and Duncan Jones on the bench to bring some impact. It's Jenkins' bench selections and substitutions that continue to puzzle me. His removal of Martyn Williams against Scotland when he was by some distance our best player on the field defies any form of logic.
He claims to pick on form and he claims he'll pick horses for courses. However he only seems to notice form in players he wants to pick and he doesn't use his horses for courses policy outside of the front 5. Add to that the total lack of any impact players on the bench half the time and he's really struggling in my book. Charvis could easily be in the starting XV but he should at the very least be on the bench. Mike Phillips petrifies the French, as witnessed last year and in the last 10mins last week, yet Peel (a Scarlet, surely not?) starts, a big mistake. If he truly believed in horses for courses Phillips would be 9 against France.
I'm not particularly a fan of any region, rather I follow all of them, I was a Warriors fan but I don't really have a home region anymore. What dismays me is that after 10 years without colloquialism in the welsh national game I can see it back. Whether Jenkins has brought any bias remains to be seen but I and many other people will start to see it that way if he continues to select poorly, substitute poorly and be hypocritical in his selections.
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Yes, hope is always last to die, it can be seen in the optimism (although of the blind kind) expressed by the Welsh nation. Italian rugby is finally here and it will stick around for a very long time, get used to it. VENI VIDI VINCI, forza AZZURRI for ever.
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I think that it is true that most of us Italian supporters expect our side to win Saturday.
Having always been the underdog of any 6N game, Italy is not accustomed to play with this sort of pressure. I am sure it will be a very tough game.
I hope Welsh and Italian supporters enjoy a great game in Rome.
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As much as i'd like not to, i can only see one outcome in Rome: Italy winning. Ok, they were gifted 21 points against Scotland, and ok, Scannavaca can't kick, but Italy have the power to simply shove Wales over their own tryline from anywhere inside 10 metres. Troncon's try against Scotland showed that, and lets not forget Scannavaca's try against England--a move that we Welsh in 2005 would have been proud of.
This championship, now that Ireland can't Grand Slam (That'll go to the French)is really about Italy. Finishing fourth will be great for them, and for the Championship. We Welsh think well win because Italy are the 6N whipping boys, and always have been--but that wont last forever. They have the best pack in Europe, and with a decent back line and kicker, which they will eventually get, they will be leadership challengers. They could, no joke, be Grand Slam contestants in less than 10 years time.
As for Wales... no flair in the backs that ive seen except for Kevin Morgan. Surely hes done enough to keep his place, especially since G Thomas hasnt scored in ages. England will steamroller us on their way to third place. Well be lucky to prevent a forty point margin. Itll be the SCW years all over again. And talk of a semi-final finish in September is far too optimistic, even for Welsh optimism. Quarters no problem, because Australia are soft touches for anyone with a pack, but who knows who well face there. Any 6N or 3N teams will blow us all the way back to Cardiff.
You see Sean. Not all of us are stupidly optimistic!
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Are Wales the underdogs? I don't think so - worth a column though..
It's true there is a lot going on at the moment. Ben Morgan's column questions selection policy, I'd go along with that, but more importantly I'd question the motives of this team. Do we want to win or what? Two years ago, positive actions, points, solidity, going forward - it was there. The same experienced players aren't so sure now. With a slight change in attitude we could be sitting on 3 wins. A touch of magic has been momentarily lost somewhere.. Capability means that Wales are still favourites. Lets hope they don't go to sleep again for half an hour like last week. Arrivederci.
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Wales underdogs? Why even ask...a new era has opened, the Italians are here and i'd cover my eyes if i were welsh!
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You know what's going to happen... Wales will scrape a win against the English, and all our losses and poor performance will be forgotten and our problems swept under the carpet.
I've had to watch Welsh rugby through my fingers this year.
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33 Post = by an English. Wales can win it will be hard but achievable and if from that we can go on to beat England which I also think is possible it will do great things to the Welsh teams confidence before the World Cup.
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Against Italy, Wales needs a regular No6, more beef in the second row, a swifter 10 and definitely a Shane Williams despite the previous, inane comment of a Mr Norman who clearly doesn't understand Welsh rugby. Of all the players who have cuased havoc against the Italians, it is Shane Williams.
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I think the welsh boys will beat italy by 15 points. As long as we take our kicks in front of goal and convert unlike in Paris where we missed about 3 or 4 then we should win. The italians have one weapon which is their pack adn if wales can nulify them and get ball to the likes of Shanklin,Williams and Thomas then we should be fine. But we cannot write off the italians.
Then fianlly it sets us up 4 the england game where we will win!!!!!! oh shame wilkinson injured again, he reflects the whole of youre team, once was taleneted now just battered and bruised and generally useless!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I think many of you must be wearing blue tinted glasses! Realistically though, I can see Wales winning by 10-15 points. I certainly don't see them losing unless.
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Jenkins knows how to beat the Italians. Gain parity up front and get quick(ish) ball to Stephen Jones. He can then unleash one of several speedy outside backs - maybe up the middle to begin with, off Jones' shoulder, and not necessarily out wide. The main thing is to run at them, fast.
The bench is crucial: either we play two props on the bench (as Scott Quinnell suggested in today's Wales on Sunday), or we start with Duncan Jones and allow Gethin Jenkins to come on fresh to cover either tight or loose head. (Observe how the Welsh scrum imploded last weekend when an exhausted Jenkins was aksed to switch sides.)
If we cannot gain parity in the scrum then it's up to the back row to carry it forward and set up second phase possession. Ryan Jones, who was disappointing against Scotland and quiet against France, needs to have huge game.
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i think that we should change the captaincy of wales. i think stephen jones is a fantastic player world class but its too much pressure for him. he has to organise the backs and the forwards and its too much so i think keep him as starting fly half but give the captaincy to someone like ryan jones or martin williams or even gareth thomas. i rekon we will win in italy because the italians win in scotland was pure luck with their trys. they did play well but most of it was luck. wales should still watch out but their pack is no match for ours as long as we keep it as it is and i think we will win in italy.
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Wales will definetly win in Rome,I feel it in my welsh extremely optimistic water.We are flying out on wed to check out the beer,shopping and the pitch,also have an audiance with the pope,just in case.Good luck to boys
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Good spelling no.46. Are you Welsh?Italy's forward pack will be too much for Wales, who, starved of confidence, will lose by 30+ to the world champions.
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Good spelling no.46. Are you Welsh?Italy's forward pack will be too much for Wales, who, starved of confidence, will lose by 30+ to the world champions.
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If Italy doesn't sustain the pressure Wales will win easily.
But if the pack does what is supposed to be the Welsh scrum half will have a hell of a game trying to create quick ball (which they have hardly done so far) from under his own posts. Plus, anyone who says that Italy is weak at the lineout has been watching rugby league (yes) instead of union.
I'd love for Italy to win and silence once and for all the critics.
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As an english born(Gloucester)-italiano now residing with my welsh girlfriend its going to be an interesting weekend!
I'm glad to see many balanced and honest opinions here, I'm glad the Azzurri are getting the respect they deserve.
We all know that no matter what level of rugby is being played, be it local 3xv or Internationals, it all starts up front and I guess this is why we're classed as favourites. Wales have the talent, its wether they can work together as a team a la 2005 and play to their ability which was evident in the first half in Paris.
For us its simple, its unchartered terrority, to be favourites for a 6 nations match, the opportunity to collect a 2nd win in a 6 nations championship. I hope that the boys will rise to the challenge and the european experience of the players particularly in the pack plus the nous of Berbizier may just allow us to sneak it!
However I believe its too close to call and that's the beauty of the 6 nations!
So, Italy favourites yes, but Wales have the ability to win and Italy will know and respect that.
Look forward to it, see you boys in the Flaminio, will be Curva Sud with a red shirt wearing girlfriend, just hope we're talking afterwards!
Forza Azzurri!!
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Wales are gonna eat them up like a bowl of badly made spag' bol' by a valley chav.
As desert, a helping of tiramasu bonus point.
mmmmm bellisimo
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if wales are to win they need to pay gareth jenkins to go see an optician!
You have to pick on form yet another week goes by where aled brw and collin charvis are playing at the highest level for their club, alex popham is an orsome tackler but is not good enough in the ruck and on the floor! is it just me or is gareth jenkins losing his marbles! guys you cant put thomas back into the team at this point in time he hasnt played rugby in a long time i will put money on this six nations ending in tears, and all because gareth jenkins hasnt been to the opticians!
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Pauls comment (18) that you can win a game with 40 % possession is just not true. Nobody but nobody wins a game with 40% possession.
Having said that, I would like to comment on how badly the welsh have performed under the high ball. Lets hope the Italians have not noticed, otherwise we can expect plenty of Italian bombs. It is strange really, because the high ball should favour the welsh way where we revel in broken play. Maybe Stephen Jones or Hook should send up a few boomers
for for us to chase down- that just might prove the best way to start racking up some tries in Rome.
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We need to bring back Charvis into the team, while the back row is a formidable outfit, Charvis is the ball carrier/ball winnder and flyhalf disrupter Wales need. Let him run riot for 60 minutes as we need to disrupt the Italian pack to stop them from gaining momentum! My idea back row would be;
6. Charvo The Great!
7. Martyn Williams
8. Alix Popham
(I would drop Ryan Jones to the bench and leave Jonathon Thomas out)
Any Comment????
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Let's hope that gareth thomas is not picked. He's way past it. If he is, Jenkins reputation will go even lower. Better to keep him as a cheer leader/ bottle-carrier on the touch line.
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Hey there. Long time listener,first time commenting.How confusing is it being a welsh rugby fan at the moment? Looking forward to this Saturday(many many miles away),which way will it go? Is it the change of coach and backroom staff that has caused this or is it just the fact that its taken 2 championships for the rest of the the teams to realise that if you starve a counter attacking team of possession then you have a huge advantage? I am a huge fan of Gar Jenks(being a Llanelli boy) but feel that this opportuntiy that he has waited so long for may pass him bye. Where is the unions sense in taking a team that could pick up the wooden spoon to OZ for 2 tests,aswell as the other fixtures just weeks before a World Cup?? I dont know and have now lost patience to be honest
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What's going on??? I have been away from Wales for 7 years and its getting worse, I remember going to the games when I was young and feeling sorry for the Scottish or the English鈥. Now I can come into the office on a Monday morning without some damn French man making fun of our performance. Do we have a plan? Are we teaching Rugby in School anymore? And what of the world cup鈥.. Somebody give me my optimism back? Richard - Sydney Australia.
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I say Italy is favoured for the match against Wales for 2 reasons. First, Italy's big win in Scotlands backyard is a huge boost for the Italian team and the home field advantage. The fans will be there to make some noise and really put some gas in the Azzurri's legs and hearts.
Am I crazy talking? Maybe! I might still be drunk from the Scotland match. Please don't wake me up!
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When Greth Jenkins took over for Wales he was always talking about how important results were, now he has switched to the losers lines about performance being more important than wins. It didn't take him long to change his tune. We are back in the dark days of the 90s. We will struggle against Italy. The problem is our pack, except for a couple of exceptions, they cannot compete at this level - even against a terrible Scottish side.
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why on earth is lee byrne in the team he is awfull, the only thing he is good at is giving the opposiyion the ball, get him out!!!
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Wales do not have the quality to beat an improving Italy side. And nowhere near the ability to beat england, even at Cardiff. When they played us(scotland) they were awful and lucky to not concede more points against an average looking scots outfit.
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The performances against Ireland and France were not too bad. We could have won at Cardiff and outscored France by three tries to two, it was our very poor discipline that let us down - France were gifted 6 points due to pointless lineout interference. I accept the showing in Scotland was awful.
Some of Jenkins' selections have been odd so far eg. Luscombe and Sidoli but he should be in a position to field a side to beat Italy with something to spare.
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Our performances have been strange so far. Unlucky against a very good Irish side, abysmal in the extreme against a poor Scotland and competitive (albeit with little ball) against a strong French side.
If our pack shows up against Italy and we can win our own set piece I think we will win comfortably but if we continue to gift the opposition the ball it will be another long afternoon on the back foot.
Hopefully Shane et al will get enough decent ball to counter attack and turn the game into a looser affair as opposed to aforward collision which I don't think we can win.
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Come on the Italians
Wales fluked a grand slam a couple of years back and they think they are in with the big boys.
Hopefully Italy + England to win at the weekend to make it an exciting last weekend and come down to points difference.
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The appalling showing in Murrayfield has lead to an over-reaction in my opinion. To say that Wales don't have the quality to beat Italy is absurd. They do not play as ineptly as they did against Scotland very often.
That's not to say it would be a great surprise to see Italy win: as they have demonstrated, if they get dominated upfront, Wales can fold and Italy have a powerful pack. But I would still rate Wales as favourites for the match.
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Eugene (#57) - I'd urge you to check the stats from the 2005 6 Nations Championship. There you'll see that, barring the Italy game, Wales had less than a 50% share of possession in each of their games and yet still managed to achieve a Grand Slam. To say that nobody wins a game with 40% possession is simply not true.
As I said previously, if they can achieve 40% possession on Saturday and rediscover the quick, offloading style that won them the Grand Slam, then I'm confident they can win.
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It is difficult to put into words how sad I find it that Wales's six nations campaign has been reduced to discussion on whether we will be able to beat Italy. Two years ago we won the grand slam playing some of the best rugby I have seen produced by a welsh team in decades. I think we should have been entitled to expect to build on that success with further victories and a confident team heading for the world cup. Instead the self-destruct button was pressed last year and the team has been in a nose dive since which culminated in a display of complete ineptitude against a medoicre Scottish team (but better than us) at Murrayfield 3 weeks ago. I don't know who will win, what I see is that Italy, like Scotland, benefit from the abilities of a good coaching team and will know what they are doing and if Wales are as clueless as they were at Murrayfield they will lose and deservedly so.
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Why is everyone so down on Wales? One poor performance against Scotland andeveryone seems to count us out. Remeber Ireland were the favorates for a GRAND SLAM this year, though we unlucky to loose, I think they were unlucky that we were missing both first choice wingers and our best outside center. not many teams expect to beat France in France, and we rocked them for much of the first half. Scotland we were rubbidh enough said , it happens, ask the all blacks at every world cup (so far...). A nice win against Italy should set us up for a blinder against England (johny who?)
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If the Wales team of the tournament so far play the Italy so far then Italy will win. The front five is too strong and the defence too well organised for a Welsh team underperforming up front and although the backs are sharp they have lacked real penetration.
Italy made life really hard for England and while the English didn't play particularly well, they weren't allowed to by a solid defensive performance.
If the real Wales is a) selected and then b) plays to its potential then they should win. Only thing is Rugby is played on grass not paper so potential won't win you a lot and Itlay are confident and have been on an upward curve.
Italy by 5, sorry boyos.
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Berbizier has done some bizzarre things this 6N - He benched his most potent weapon (front row)against France, he played so conservatively against England that many asked what would have happened if they had tried (they would have unleashed England is the answer but thats for another blog).
I personally think that he has targetted Wales and probably Ireland as his perfomance games this year and I can't see Wales living with their pack in Rome.
Why Ireland? - they should have beaten them last year, will be in Rome and I still have suspicions about Irish temperament when their nationalistic dander isn't up.
That said (and to repeat myself from other blogs) Wales best chance is against England in Cardiff. England are still familiarising themselves with each other and their systems, this will always come under pressure away from home against an empassioned opposition (do I need and example) who will throw kitchen sink and all against them.
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I think the Italians will the confidence to put one over the Welsh in this match. After those first crazy 6 mins at Murrayfield, (my first ever international I watched @ Murrayfield BTW..), they will have belief now as a squad. They have always had the passion, the key ingredient is that the Italians will believe they are no longer the wooden spoon team. The strength of the pack and the guile of Troncon will out do Wales. The Welsh are going to be low on confidence after the France match, and with the key players not on form just now, it could be another famous Italian victory.
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As a NZ - I am constantly amused why teams like Italy and Argentina are still being under-estimated! Why do the rest of the 6 nations teams assume they should beat Italy?
The IRB World Rankings list Italy as 9th in the world, Scotland are 10th! So the fact that Italy beat Scotland should either have been expected, or as no great surprise at least?
Argentina are ranked 6th in the world - higher than England, Wales and Scotland! So why are Englands fans up in arms about losing to them and South Africa (3rd), both of which have earned their places above England in the IRB Rankings!
Therefore - the same applies to the Welsh v Italy game. Wales are ranked 8th, and Italy 9th. Therefore, Wales should beat Italy but if they lose ... Italy are worthy opponents, and it should be no shame or shock that they might come out on top!
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Wales will continue to struggle because we lack proper leadership on and off the pitch. Stephen Jones is simply not a leader of men and Gareth Jenkins continues to behave in a parochial or otherwise inexplicable manner in his selections and comments. The front row performances have been poor for two seasons - we lack a quality hooker capable of scrummaging and throwing into the line. Gethin Jenkins is simply not a tighthead and we've struggled every time he's been moved there. 8,9,10 have all been off form. Peel is distracted and frustrated in trying to fill the captaincy vacuum. Ryan Jones lacks the explosiveness he had two years ago. Shane Williams simply wasn't fit against France. Italy are favourites and we are Wooden Spoon favourites.
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As an Englishman I would rather see Italy win and I believe they are the better team. O.K. Wales out scored the french three tries to two in Paris but we know what the French are like they play when they want to play but Italy has the home advantage and the game is already a sell-out crowd, with that behind the Ities they have the motivation and momentum after coming off a trouncing of the scots in Murryfield. but the main thing to help Italy win is mistakes if Iatly can capitalise of Wales' mistakes like they did the scots then they can win because they'll dimolish them up front.
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This selection just proves (once again) that GJ is a waster. Why go to Rodney Parade and Ulster and still not select Charvis in the 22!! Italy will be very hard to beat looking at their last two matches. At least Czekaj and Robinson are out of the reckoning.
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I think Jake the Muss has his facts confused.
Italy are not ranked 9th in the world & have never been ranked higher than Scotland. They won their first away game in the 6 nations ever against a terrible Scottish team who performed like idiots.
When both teams ran out, Scotland were 9th in the rankings & Italy were 13th.
I think Wales should win if they really pull together as a team & start to play the kind of rugby their fans expect. Saw glimpses of it against Ireland & France but they have not maintained it. They also seem to be giving away a large number of penalties which doesn't help.
Come on Wales, as a Scot I'm behind you all the way.
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1.Im afraid the No10 question will not be solved by Jenkins.
2.It seems that his chosen forward coach is not experienced enough.
3.We need an out-of-hand kicker who can exceed 25yards and a reliable place kicker.
4 We still cannot win the ball on the floor.
5 Our pack doesn't play like a unit and its workrate is poor
I hope the Italy match proves me wrong but ......
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I am italian but I lived in Cardiff for almost one year and I loved it...the last year while entering the Millennium I said to a small kid that it was gonna be a draw...(I love Brains beer and a week-end in Cardiff is always hard). It was an hope because after seeing Wales win the Six Nations I thought Italy could have called itself happy with such a result.
In my opinion the difference is all in the backs, if Wales would have Shane W. Henson, Shanklin, Hook and Gareth Thomas 100% fit there would be no game but if we (Italy) are lucky on saturday in Rome we will play against people like Chris Czekaj and Jamie Robinson (which have still much to show) and we could ask our forwards another miracle and get a result.
I will bet a 15-15.
I can麓t see Wales losing again, and I think Wales will not lose. But let me hope Italy will win, as a Welsh influenced rugby fan I still hope Italy can finish on top of England!!
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We ARE going to beat Italy, we might even beat England, then everything will be Ol right.
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Does it really matter who wins?? As long as I get to wear my new sunglasses & Mike Phillips gets to play!!
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RE comment 52
'Ed wrote:
Good spelling no.46. Are you Welsh?Italy's forward pack will be too much for Wales, who, starved of confidence, will lose by 30+ to the world champions.'
suprise suprise, another englishman reminding us that they are the world champions. only by title mate!
wales have definitely got the bouncebackability to win in italy, as the performance against the next possible world champions suggested a few weeks ago. italy havnt got the legs to last a full 80 minutes im afraid, so they will struggle to hold a hungry gareth thomas back when he's introduced!!
not too sure on the replacements bench only having 1 back row player though, its a bit much to expect of the starters but we'll see whether the tinkerman of rugby is just getting his tactics right for the world cup!
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Gareth Jenkins has missed the perfect opportunity for selecting untried players against Italy. He has nothing to lose as the season is dead in the water
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I think far too much has been made of Wales' performances in the six nations.
1. Narrowly lost to Ireland
2. Scotland- just one of those days
3. Lost to probable Grand Slam champs on their soil by 10 points, but outscored them 3 trys to 2.
Wales are a good side, who apart from NZ can beat anyone in the world. Rugby is like a game of chess- if one piece is out of place or not working then all the other pieces will fall apart. Wales have just lacked a drive forward, and carrying ball to produce the platform. They have the forwards to do this and then we will see a more flowing controlled game- which will happen. I expect a win in Italy with an improved performance. If I were the manager, in training this week, I would have focused on taking the ball over the gain-line to set the platform. The attacking flair and defence is already there. One change I might make for Italy would be to bring in Colin Charvis at No.8 to show the way in carrying ball and setting a platform.
Huw
N.Wales
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Huw's comment is a fine example of extravagant optimism. I, too, expect a "much improved performance" in Rome because, frankly, Wales could not get much worse than they were against the Scots. The performance that day was tactically inept (too much ball kicked straight back to the opposition, risky passing leading to interceptions etc) and no evidence of any leadership on the field that could make any difference.
The Paris performance was more like what we expect, particularly from the pack and despite a disappointing result, there was plenty to take pride and confidence in.
I'll leave the analysis of the dark art of forward play to others. Obviously, however, we need our scrum and line-out to work most of the time, and ideally we need to win our fair share of ball at the breakdown. If all that happens then I expect the Welsh backs to win it for us because there will be space and opportunities for them - they are capable enough of creating openings but also, Italy often mishandle under pressure (and sometimes when they aren't) and may tire in the final quarter of the match.
Let's hope the right pack - the one with the 'spine' to take on a large and confident Italian 8 - turns up on Saturday.
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I hold my head heavy at how Wales, with a grand slam winning team sheet, look this championship. Who'd have thought two years ago that we'd now be facing Italy as underdogs?
All credit to the Italians, they're the most cunning team in the tournament and they deserve the reward of a couple of big scalps.
IF we get good ball, we should creat overlaps and gaps left, right and centre. If we don't get ball, then we'll lose. In which case, we may as well have a loss to England, make it a whitewash and have done with it.
With Alfie and his ability to control while undermining management on his way out of international rugby, and the devious Scott Johnson gone, perhaps the WRU could do the honourable thing and go on bended knees to Mike Ruddock.
The glint in the eyes of those boys in 2005 was a reflection of his positive coaching and tactics. We could have been on for some more glory years (at least in the northern hemisphere) if Ruddock could have ridden the storm of that constuctive dismissal.
We're our own worst enemies. Shame on us.
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I think that if the Welsh pack can secure enough ball through a solid set-piece, the Italian back-line will find it incredibly difficult to contain the likes of Hook, Shanklin, Mark Jones, Williams and Kevin Morgan. I know that Hook has been average so far but I feel that this is the sort of game that he could really show how well he spots a gap.
In short, if we win our own set piece, I think we could be comfortable winners. However, if we kick away possession and allow the Italian pack to gain confidence, it could be a tough afternoon.
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Charvis, Popham and Williams - a back row to be proud of! Why don't we select it?
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From what we have seen so far I think Italy can control the game and win comfortably, but by a close margin.
This year Italy demonstrated to be a Team, improving confidence and getting better match after match. If they manage to stay focus and keep the pressure not to be the underdogs, they will get the job done!
All the ifs on Welsh possible performance are not sustained by facts, but I do agree that if they can play as the played in 2005 they will win comfortably, just I don't think it will happen!
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I will go for a draw.
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I think Italian's confidence from past perfomance (and win) and the enormous support they will receive at home (they are putting up bing screens outside the Stadio Flaminio) will boost their game and I am sure they will win this game.
I know, I am biased ... but hey I love RUGBY!!!!
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I think Italian's confidence from past perfomance (and win) and the enormous support they will receive at home (they are putting up bing screens outside the Stadio Flaminio) will boost their game and I am sure they will win this game.
I know, I am biased ... but hey I love RUGBY!!!!
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win lose or draw... who cares, as long as we beat the english.
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The Italians have impressed us all this year - they did well against England and showed us what we should have done against Scotland - having said that we should stuff'em. My eternal optimism comes from Brains beer. Ymlaen Cymru!!
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For me, possesion is the key.
On the backs, Wales can surely play better than Italians, who are really good in the scrum. Not only the scrum in itself, but in the general play of scrum players. I try to explain: tactically, tecnically, the Italian forwards are better. The Welsh never win the advantage line with the scrum players. This is an handicap. However in the lineouts we (Italians) have to pay attention. I think that Alun Wyn Jones is a good jumper in the lineouts and can beat Marco Bortolami and Santiago Dellap猫. The only jumpers that takes balls clearly are Parisse and Zanni at the end of the lineout. At the centres with Bergamasco and Canale Italy can resist, but the back three Robertson-De Marigny-Pratichetti aren't so good as international level imposes. The first is only a very fast runner, but a poor defender. The fullback is improved but his kick is shortranged and never join the attacking line. Pratichetti is on his third cap. The first was with John Kirwan at coach, against the All Blacks, the second with the Roses of England, after the Denis Dallan injury. But this is the better lineup we can set up: many of our backs (Bortolussi, Stanojevic, Canavosio- Welshs'll remeber it-, Nitoglia, Dallan, Masi) are injuried, and that's it. Finally I would remember you two things: the first, Pez is back up in the fly half for Scanavacca; the second, Gareth Jenkins imited Pierre Berbizier having a full front row in the bench. Forza Azzurri.
PS And excuse me for my bad english...
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Ok, reading all those comments by Welsh fans, i see that the key (or the hope?) is Shane Williams: Berbizier has chosen to put the young (he's just 22) Pratichetti in front of him; he's heavier but slower than Williams...i hope that will not be the weak point of Italy's defence. Another possible trouble could be our typical emotional approach: we are easy to go down when we are in difficulties; that's why we are latins, after all...Anyway, i think it will be a very close match, between two teams on same layer (18-18 last year in Cardiff)...a second win in row would be very very VERY important for us!
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Ok, reading all those comments by Welsh fans, i see that the key (or the hope?) is Shane Williams: Berbizier has chosen to put the young (he's just 22) Pratichetti in front of him; he's heavier but slower than Williams...i hope that will not be the weak point of Italy's defence. Another possible trouble could be our typical emotional approach: we are easy to go down when we are in difficulties; that's why we are latins, after all...Anyway, i think it will be a very close match, between two teams on same layer (18-18 last year in Cardiff)...a second win in row would be very very VERY important for us!
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