´óÏó´«Ã½

For those who think the media are to blame for talking down the economy, take a look at the Lloyds TSB Business Monitor, published on Monday.

There, you'll find business is taking the lead in gloominess.

Using Strathclyde University economists' surveying of 1,954 companies, the monitor has found the record of September to November showing declining figures and even worse expectations for the three months from December to the end of February.

It's no surprise these are the worst figures for the 11 years the monitor has been surveying business figures and sentiment.

But the sharpness of the decline is striking.

Top line findings from the three months to the end of November have 20% saying turnover is increasing, while 51% said it was in decline.

That 31 point gap was only a 10 point downturn deficit in the previous quarter, and a year before, companies with growing revenue were 16 points ahead of the fallers.

Worse off

Repeat business was much more likely to be down over the previous quarter, but the decline was not as fast as orders from new customers.

Meanwhile, concerns about cash flow, late payments and the cost of credit are on the rise.

All forms of business are suffering, but the message is clear that services are worse off.

Looking ahead to the current three-month period, only 10% of service firms expected growing turnover, while 60% foresaw a fall.

But look under the figures and you might discern at least one slightly hopeful sign coming from exports.

Those reporting export performance are saying it's down more than it's up, by a 22 point margin. But that was before the currency shifts became clear.

While 62% of companies expect exports to remain level, as many - 19% - think they will rise as think they will fall.

Ceramic pillars

In manufacturing exports, the optimists clearly outnumber the pessimists by a three to one margin.

On Monday, Wedgewood pottery, one of the founding ceramic pillars of England's industrial revolution, has called in the administrators.

And it may be that the painful shake-out in Scottish manufacturing over previous recessions has left it with fewer of these older industries facing tough times now.

Likewise, there is no obvious Scottish parallel to car manufacturing of the English Midlands, currently facing acute difficulties.

While services are in most trouble north of the border, manufacturing in Scotland looks better prepared for downturn than it has been before, and it may be better placed than its southern cousin.