Rate cut scepticism
I'm in Perth today, reporting on reaction to the half point cut in the Bank of England base rate.
So far, it's distinctly lukewarm. Even in the construction industry and the becalmed property market (the Perthshire solicitors' property centre reporting transactions down 78% on last year and average prices down 15.5%), there is scepticism.
Here, they raised their concerns about the knock-on effect on savers, who already faced interest rates nearing zero.
And there was a warning that repeated deep rate cuts simply signal the depth of the crisis, whereas prospective home buyers are looking for more stability and signs of confidence.
There is some recognition that weakening sterling should be good for the locally important tourism market, attracting foreigners and keeping Brits close to home for their holidays.
But so far, the pound has risen on today's news, reflecting relief in the currency markets that the cut wasn't deeper. It now seems to be driven by which way traders turn to find which currency zone is in the least trouble, and both the US and eurozone have had some grim indications lately.
The rate cut is big news today, but it seems attention should be more focussed on fiscal policy and its consequences.
One issue to watch is the potential for trouble governments will face in trying to raise an estimated three trillion US dollars worth of bonds this year. The relatively prudent Germans yesterday kicked off the bond market year, and the signs were far from reassuring.
Comment number 1.
At 9th Jan 2009, OldSouth wrote:The failure of the German government debt auction is a harbinger of things to come.
What if Mr. Obama wishes to usher in his wonderful new world of unlimited government spending of borrowed money, and no one shows up at the T-bill auctions?
I've been at auctions where there is much more inventory to sell than buyers available to purchase. It's not a pretty sight...the sellers lose their shirts with a lot of inventory left, and the buyers make out like bandits, until they decide they've had enough.
And the bidding comes to a dead halt...'cuz everyone has gone home.
It can (and may well) happen here.
It will be embarrassing, a wake-up call, a hurdle that Himself won't be able to overcome by smiling that big ol' smile and declaring "Yes, we can!".
It may be just what is needed to put the brakes on our out-of -control government.
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Comment number 2.
At 9th Jan 2009, kaybraes wrote:It's hard to see anyone with any sense being keen to buy government bonds from the British government either, knowing that the chances are extremely high that Brown and Darling will squander the cash raised, and the bonds may never be redeemable. At some point in time government spending has to be cut and the massive welfare bill has to be cut. At the same time there must be enormous rises in taxation to pay for what has gone before. The sooner this process starts, however hard on the workshy and the civil service it is , it has to be done , and putting it off in the hope of another labour term in office will only make the cure more painful.
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Comment number 3.
At 10th Jan 2009, Robin__Banks wrote:#2 kaybraes
"At some point in time government spending has to be cut and the massive welfare bill has to be cut. At the same time there must be enormous rises in taxation to pay for what has gone before." I suspect that you may be right.
On the subject of "the relatively prudent Germans", Chancellor Merkel was quoted as saying this week that we (meaning, I understand, not specifically Germans but the West generally) have been living beyond our means for years. This, she stated, apparently, is the problem which needs to be confronted. Point me in the direction of one if possible, but I seem to have missed any statement of this nature from the UK PM. What I am aware of from the UK government is that it is planning to raise 146.4 billion pounds sterling this financial year, three times more than last year.
Mr Brown must be hoping against hope that the failure of the recent German debt auction, which follows cancellation of Belgian and Spanish offerings due to lack of demand, does not mean that the Labour UK government's intention to relay on vastly increased government debt is premised upon assumptions about bond markets that have ceased to be valid since the present economic crisis began.
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Comment number 4.
At 10th Jan 2009, Robin__Banks wrote:I beg your pardon. In line 4 of paragraph 3 of my #3 the word "relay" should, of course, be RELY.
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