Your first recession
Why is it that young people are more downbeat about the recession than other age groups? The GfK NOP poll published today shows sentiment falling, and at its worst among those aged 16 to 29.
Some explanations are that young people are suffering the brunt of job losses so far, graduates are facing a tough task getting into the labour market, and this generation has never experienced a recession before.
It brought to mind some questions I was asked by some student journalists earlier this week. The programme they were making was seeking to find out what the recession will mean for younger people who are still in education.
Without adequate thought, I gave them something of a garbled answer. If you guys are reading this, I'm sorry. But as more information has emerged this week about the depth of the recession and the length of time it will take for Britain to pay back the debts it is currently building up, I've given it some more thought.
So here's a second try - what does this recession mean for people?
* If you're young and spend any money, the companies from which you buy are finding things tough, partly because trade is down and often because they are struggling to pay off their debts. Some won't survive. If you received vouchers for Christmas, there are some shops where you might do well to spend them sooner rather than later.
* The money you spend on imported goods is going to go less far. You may not be in the market for a BMW just yet, but nearly 40% of the food we buy is imported. Likewise, the cheaper end of the clothes/fashion market is largely made in parts of the world where the pound buys less than it did last year. It means those who earn in pounds are getting a bit poorer.
* You may find some things in the shops are getting a whole lot cheaper, as shops discount. For those who have money to spend, this is not a bad time to be doing it. But be aware that there is a shift on: there's going to be a lot more saving going on, and you could do worse than to get that habit yourself.
* If you fancy a Saturday job in a shop, you will find a lot more competition from older unemployed people.
* If you are leaving school, college or university soon, the job market is going to be tougher than it's been for a very long time, for at least the next year, probably two years and possibly longer than that.
* Getting an overdraft and loan facility from banks when you go to college is going to be tougher. Don't be surprised if there's an end to free personal banking.
* Government-funded student loans may come under pressure when we get to the stage where public sector spending faces a squeeze. That could be as soon as next year, but looks increasingly likely to take longer. This will impact not only on student finance, but will ask tough questions of politicians on how they finance universities, colleges and school education, and how much they rely on students, parents, graduates and the private sector to contribute.
The respected Institute of Fiscal Studies reckons at least £20bn per year is going to be required in spending cuts or tax increases by 2015. This is a big, challenging issue, and may take a while to work through.
* Long term, you are the people who are going to be working to pay off this debt. The IFS says Government debt may take 20 years to be paid off to pre-recession levels. In other words, your taxes are still going to be paying for all this when you're heading towards your fortieth birthday.
And that's without reckoning for the demographic challenge you face from a baby-boomer like me, paying your taxes, when the time comes, to fund my pension and long-term care costs.
Assuming you're willing to shoulder that burden, I would like to thank you in advance.
Comment number 1.
At 1st Feb 2009, kaybraes wrote:The lack of response seems to point to the fact that either nobody in the age group you're talking to cares , or they haven't got a clue what's actually going on. Though I suspect , like my kids they are so sickened by our political masters that they are resigned to whatever happens.
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Comment number 2.
At 1st Feb 2009, i_amHanhan wrote:I think kaybraes is right - I'm 26, have never been through a recession, but am totally disillusioned with our political leaders because they've created a situation for me and my peers where we might not be able to set a life up for ourselves now.
I'm hoping to get on the property ladder and start raising kids in the next couple of years, but with the future so economically uncertain, I'm not sure if I'll be able to feed myself, let alone any kids I was hoping might come along!
So yes, there's nothing we can do really but try and hold on to our money as best we can, see what the situation is in the next few years and get on with it...the situation's got so far down the line that there's really nothing else to say.
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Comment number 3.
At 1st Feb 2009, jbgl86 wrote:I am 22 years old, a law graduate, and currently studying the Diploma in Legal Practice. In order to become a solicitor I need to obtain a two year traineeship with a firm.
The situation is bleak out there -- my friends are finding themselves out of a job left, right and centre; and not all of them have followed the same career path as I.
While I agree with Douglas' hints and tips, I think the most important thing we can all learn from this is that rainy days come when you're least expecting them.
However, too many people overstretch themselves to the point of financial meltdown, and this has consequences far wider than their own personal circumstances.
Just look at the US sub-prime debt. People find it too easy to get credit, overstretch themselves, default on payments, the banks can't sell and recover their losses, and before you know it most of the developed world is in financial meltdown.
So for someone like me, after five years of university education, to be coming out the other end into a situation that's so bleak is hardly comforting.
Gordon Brown and his government have a lot to answer for; but the blame does not solely lie with him. His advisors seem to think these great tax cuts, and that shoring up the poorest performing financial institutions, is the way forward. It's not. How could it possibly make things any better?
People should be encouraged to save, not spend -- and if the last few months have taught people anything, it's that they don't live in a bubble.
So I would say to Gordon, raise VAT back to its original rate; raise interest rates for savings accounts to encourage saving; encourage people to have a professional relationship with their financial institution of choice and build loyalty; and ultimately live within their means.
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Comment number 4.
At 2nd Feb 2009, dennisjunior1 wrote:Douglas:
....Why is it that young people are more downbeat about the recession than other age groups? ...
I am 30 years old...And in reality that this is my first recession in this time...
People are downbeat in this age bracket because of loss of jobs and dimmering looks of prospects in the long-turn.
~Dennis Junior~
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Comment number 5.
At 2nd Feb 2009, HunkieDunkie wrote:Douglas:
Born in early '50's, and I fear that I have never experienced a downturn such as this either...
The very real fear that I detect stems from the almost tangible fact that everyone knows that we have been living well beyond our means since this NuLabour government came to power - a life time for your younger readers... In this time we have 'spoiled' our children beyond the necessary and it is slowly dawning on them the implications of our combined actions.
What prospect for the young graduate in todays climate... The first salary slip was not as BLiar, and the Great Broon promised... The Student debt mountain... The Bank wants its overdraft paid down... No prospect of 'fleeing' the family nest given the lack of Social Housing or grossly inflated house prices... Just a hint that their parents are becoming just a little rebellious towards their Governments stance on a widening range of issues...
Lack of voice on topical issues...
Perception of Police harassment - in a footbal crowd of less than 1,000 at the weekend - police video'd the faces of the entire crowd... 'forcing' individuals to remove hats and scarves so that a clear picture could be taken... (this was followed by the intrusion of cameras into cars leaving the ground - including the 'threat of arrest'). Having never been 'in trouble' I found myself becoming just mildly concerned at the waste of my taxpaying pound!!!
Douglas:
It's not just about recession... It's overbearing authority... unaccountable authority...
Who, for instance, gave permission for the twice 'removed' Lord Mandleson to speak on my behalf? And how could/ would I remove him?
I could go on...
You must go on - on our behalf. Without your forum there is no place for us to communicate...
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Comment number 6.
At 3rd Feb 2009, nedafo wrote:Here's my view for what it worth. Firstly, it is simply the fear of the unknown. The generations which have been through it all before all know that we will get out the other end. Secondly, for some time now, each generation expects that it will be better off than the last. I think that is no longer the case and the younger generation are beginning to realise this.
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Comment number 7.
At 3rd Feb 2009, jockbast wrote:Here we go again. One not-very-scientific opinion poll + 1 ´óÏó´«Ã½ journalist = more space filled with, er, nothing really. But hey it's a blog, so it's real cheap and quick to do.
If you can't be more perceptive than this, may I suggest going out and asking why "young people" are more depressed about the recession (which they may or may not be, let's face it)? It took a younger person to point out the extremely likely answer that it's because this is their first recession.
What age is Douglas Fraser, 86 ?
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Comment number 8.
At 4th Feb 2009, OldSouth wrote:As an official 'old guy'(early 50's), allow me to chime in. My university days were spent in the worst of the 1970's stagflation/recession, straddling Nixon, Ford and (heaven help us) Jimmy Carter as I headed into the real world.
Before that, I got to watch both Kennedys murdered in public, along with Dr. King, and see the attempt on Gov. Wallace. Vietnam, Kent State, Watergate, the list continues...and thenwe got the recession that would not go away.
It was awful, and depressing, and disheartening--in great part because I was too young to have any sense of perspective about what was happening around me.
We got through it, and times got a lot better, for a long period. But we didn't learn much from the experience, I fear.
We (that is, my generation) are perhaps the most narcissistic on record. Did we really think we could live lives of sex, drugs and rock-and-roll, and not really screw things up?
We laughed at the grey old men in dark suits and starched collars who ran our banks, bokerages, universities and houses of worship.
Now, they seem pretty smart after all...
Hang in there, kids, and learn from this difficulty. It will pass, as all things do. Hopefully, it will create a sober and clear-thinking pool of leaders to help build the future for your generation.
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Comment number 9.
At 5th Feb 2009, KennethM wrote:I think that competition for work is greater for those in the 20 to 30 bracket as most immigrants are also in this age range, whether they be undergraduates or unskilled labour (or anything in between). I think that there has been a squeeze on young job seekers for a while now.
I also think that the government has tried to push too many people into academic study with no thought of where they will get jobs at the other end.
Both of the above were time bombs waiting to go of, with or without a recession. It is just that is will now be a whole lot worse.
For what it's worth, I cannot see how we will have deflation. This is no ordinary recession. Companies will only slash prices if there is competition. With companies going bust or being eaten up by larger ones, there is likely to be less competition and, fuelled by the low pound, much higher prices. I think we are heading for high inflation and structural damage to our economy. In other words, the same mess that the Labour Party have got into every time they have been in power.
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Comment number 10.
At 14th Feb 2009, veryfaraway wrote:Are young people so downbeat?
There's far more to life than money so perhaps it's a good thing this recession has hit.
I left Scotland 25 years ago because I was bored. 4 countries later, countless changes of jobs, I feel I have lived, not just existed accumulating material goods. I'm back in teaching which I enjoy and have always kept my head above water.
I'm also in my early 50s, don't remember any recession. Old South is correct; we were a bunch of narcissists, but that doesn't mean you have to be a robot. Just decide what you want, pursue it and live within your means.
Look at how your ancestors lived 150 years ago. That was HARD.
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