Big banks face a crash diet
Could Lloyds Banking Group have plans to flog off Bank of Scotland?
As rumours go, this is at the mischievous end of the spectrum.
But it stems from the pressure being on the merged Lloyds-TSB-Halifax-Bank of Scotland to scale itself down, and it has yet to say how it intends to do so.
The biggest threat comes from Brussels, where European Commissioner Neelie Kroes has been setting out new guidelines on how to maintain competition in the banking marketplace while around 80 banks are steered out of trouble with their governments' aid.
Having confronted Germany's Commerzbank, she has already made clear that Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) are in her sights for special attention.
That's both for their market share and, allied to that, the support they're getting from the UK government.
Moral hazard
She wants to make sure the support of governments does not mean unfair competition for banks that are not needing bailed out.
She wants to ensure financial stability as a first priority, without losing sight of the importance of effective competition.
And there's concern that the bail-out of banks that are "too big to fail" - or indeed, any bank - creates a problem of moral hazard, in that such bankers can afford to be reckless.
So banks will have to be stress tested.
They have to set out their plans to scale down where they are too large.
They will be barred from aggressive pricing or marketing funded by state aid.
Right price
The banks' owners have to share with taxpayers much of the burden of restructuring.
And they have to get out of government dependency within five years, or else face takeover or winding up.
In a recent speech, Kroes said: "The likelihood of significant divestments by RBS and Lloyds is strong."
For that, RBS was already on the case, having announced it plans to shed about a fifth of its assets, when it can find buyers, and at the right price.
A sale of much of its Asian operation, built up by ABN Amro, is likely to be announced soonish.
But retreating from its global reach won't address the potential RBS has to play too dominant a role as a lender in the British economy.
Chief executive Stephen Hester met Commissioner Kroes last week to explain what is planned.
Split them
Lloyds has said much less about its plans for scaling down, beyond finance director Tim Tookey saying in May that non-core operations would be scaled down in time.
It talks about a "strong plan to exit state aid".
Just how much it needs to shed is being negotiated through the UK government, which is responsible to the European Commission on behalf of the banks it regulates and partly owns.
A senior official at the Commission said on Thursday that the restructuring plans from two very large British banks have been filed in recent weeks, and await approval.
What these banks will hope is that selling off marginal, under-performing and non-core assets will avoid a ruling that would split them more fundamentally.
That's particularly important to Lloyds' management, who have staked their reputations on the value added by a very risky merger that by-passed competition rules, and for whom a forced de-merger would surely be the last straw.
One indication that divestment process is under way is a report today that LBG's London-based asset management outfit, Insight Investment, is the subject of bids from potential buyers.
The company wasn't commenting on the report.
Sticky and expensive
But it may offer some relief for those at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, the asset management wing of Lloyds TSB, operating out of Edinburgh, which could as easily have been getting sold off.
The concern about these giant banks' dominance of British lending extends to governments in London and Edinburgh.
The chancellor said on Thursday that he is to call in bank chiefs over the next two weeks, demanding to know why lending to business remains sticky and expensive.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has raised concerns about access to credit from the traditional Scottish lenders.
Clydesdale Bank this week said it was making £1bn more money available for loans over the next 12 months, specially aimed at small and medium sized firms.
But with RBS and Bank of Scotland trying to rebuild their balance sheets and get control of lending risk, the council - chaired by former RBS chairman Sir George Mathewson - is recommending to ministers that they get proactive in trying to bring other lenders into the Scottish market.
According to minutes of the most recent CEA meeting, Alex Salmond was told: "There is a need to rebuild the Scottish banking sector by attracting institutions which do not currently have large operations in Scotland and may be willing to lend in more innovative ways."
Comment number 1.
At 24th Jul 2009, Wee-Scamp wrote:What we really need is a new Scottish bank that works with the Scottish Govt and Scottish industry to grown and broaden the Scottish economy.
I rather like the Kiwi Bank model.....
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Comment number 2.
At 24th Jul 2009, invisible_swordsman wrote:Douglas,
Love your blogs, this one is especially interesting. But, one minor point: Please use paragraphs correctly! I don't think you have one single paragraph up there containing more than one sentence, and it feels like you're spoon-feeding the reading in the style of news.bbc.co.uk. Please, trust the intelligence of your redearship!
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Comment number 3.
At 24th Jul 2009, nine2ninetysix wrote:Oh Dear, mixed emotion time on this one.
Of course we shouldn`t have institutions too big to fail and not just in banking either. A more competitive high street in every walk of life would be better for us, and more in tune with the needs of, and more responsive to, an independant Scotland.
Why then do I object to someone saying this? Because it comes from Brussells where conformity comes before common sense and our "allies" gang up on UK PLC.
Come to think of it is "Europe" itself now too big to fail? Let`s jump ship before it is too late.
As For Lloyds selling Bank of Scotland BofS could then sell Halifax and RBS could sell ABN Amro and guess what, time travel is now possible.
Sounds good to me.
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Comment number 4.
At 24th Jul 2009, uk_abz_scot wrote:I'm glad there is a realisation that banks are too big. If I think back say 30 years places like Aberdeen had a bank HQ in the city! The Aberdeen Savings Bank had its HQ in Union Terrace. Before that there was another bank, the North Of Scotland Bank with it's HQ in Castle Street. Banks of this size needing a government rescue would have provoked a crisis locally but would not have brought the entire UK economy to its knees. (Incidentally the Savings Bank is a Lloyds branch and the North Bank is now a pub).
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Comment number 5.
At 24th Jul 2009, kaybraes wrote:Maybe it is not a good thing to have financial institutions too big (all the eggs in one basket ect. ) but it would be nice if the British government would have the courage to tell the Brussells sprouts to butt out. Britain is quite capable of deciding what's best for it's finance houses without their assistance. They didn't come running when the banks needed assistance but they're sticking their oar in now in case British banks do better than their's through the recession.
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