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Up in smoke

Douglas Fraser | 18:14 UK time, Friday, 31 July 2009

It's a busy time for companies issuing half-year results. Loaded with underlying profits, EBITDA figures and exceptional items, it's sometimes easy to forget what it is that companies are selling.

So perhaps we can take a step back from results for one company that's selling a rather controversial product - British American Tobacco. It reported its half year figures this week, with group revenue up by 24% to £6,780m.

One striking aspect of these results is that it's hard to find any evidence of sales in either Britain or America. Indeed, that never was a strength for the company.

It's well established that the big tobacco merchants have turned their attention to countries where there is less of a health kick against the weed, including less of a tax crackdown and fewer advertising and marketing restrictions.

BAT sells in about 180 markets, and according to analyst Charles Stanley, about 65% of its profits and volumes now originate in high-growth emerging markets.

It was mainly the recession that saw the volume of cigarette sales fall in Russia, and the company saw less product going up in smoke in Japan, Malaysia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.

But look where it's growing: Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Nigeria, and the Gulf states. Total volume of cigarettes: 349 billion.

Further down the road, that represents a big health bill.

And according to Charles Stanley - with analysis that strips out any ethical consideration - the best prospect for growth is in Indonesia, where BAT has just bought a big stake in the fourth-largest tobacco producer.

"Indonesia has very few tobacco restrictions and is the only country in Asia that has not signed the World Health Organisation Framework Convention on Tobacco Control," according to the analyst's note.

For some businesses, keen to show customers their credentials as responsible and ethical traders, that might be a place to avoid.

Not in this industry, though. According to Charles Stanley, Indonesia is one place that "BAT is likely to remain on the lookout for further bolt-on acquisitions".

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