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There are few sights as evocative of Clyde heritage as a ship launch. But it's a sight you may only be able to see twice more.

When a patrol vessel descended the slipway from the Scotstoun yard on Thursday, bound for Trinidad and Tobago, it was the third last launch planned by the oft-rebranded company we are now to call BAE Systems Surface Ships.

The Scarborough - named after the main township on Tobago rather than the Yorkshire seaside resort - is one of three patrol vessels intended more for intercepting drug smugglers and humanitarian support than force projection through the Caribbean.

It's even designed as the platform for a refrigerated mortuary in case of hurricane relief.

There's one further Trinidadian patrol ship to be finished on the Clyde, and in late summer next year, there will be the sixth and final Type 45 Destroyer to launch at Govan.

For years after that, the only work is likely to be large chunks of the Royal Navy's super-carriers, which will be floated down the Clyde and assembled at Rosyth in Fife.

And then there's the Future Surface Combatant class of ship to follow after that. The intention is not to launch them at all, but to build them either in dry dock or on barges for submersion when the ship is ready.

I hear the excitement, hoopla and drama of seeing a vast ship descending a slipway will soon be outweighed by the risk that it goes horribly wrong and wallops the opposite bank.

Scotland's defence jobs

While on the shipyard theme, one piece of research published by Fraser of Allander Institute this week - in addition to its downbeat assessment of Scotland's recovery prospects - was work on the number of defence jobs in Scotland.

Its conclusion: it's not easy to tell, and if Scotland is to make rational choices about its future defence posture, in or out of the United Kingdom, it needs better information.

It cites analysis for the UK Government showing Scottish military employment had fallen from 19,300 to 12,400 between 1990 and 2007, with civilian employment down by more than a third, from 10,300 to 6500.

That's less than its population share of both uniformed personnel and civilians. And it's heavily biased towards Moray, with its two air bases and Argyll, which includes the Faslane submarine base. Each has around 3,000 service personnel. Edinburgh and Fife have roughly half as many.

In 2006, the defence industry employed 7,300 in shipbuilding, and 4,500 in aerospace.

The supercarrier contract, which represents a large part of the workload in the next six years, would be very expensive to cancel, even in the face of draconian government spending cuts. Around £1bn is already committed.

But other "difficult choices on defence" are looming, writes Strathclyde University economist Stewart Dunlop.

"Given that these choices will ultimately be made by voters, it would clearly assist the public if the political parties would spell out in more detail both what they believe are realistic options and the consequences of these. Neither of these situations seems likely to improve in the near future, but until we have this information, we are making decisions in the dark."
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